Experts Discuss the Future of U.S.–China Relations and East Asian Security
HOUSTON, February 1, 2023 — In partnership with the Council of Korean Americans, Asia Society Texas hosted a panel discussion on security challenges and potential political scenarios in East Asia. The program featured Dr. Leif-Eric Easley, Associate Professor of International Studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, and Dr. Seong – Hyon Lee, a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.–China Relations and a visiting scholar at Harvard University’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. David J. Firestein, president and CEO of the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.–China Relations, moderated the discussion.
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Tensions and opportunities
To open the discussion, the panel referred to the recent meeting of President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the annual Group of 20 Summit in Bali. Dr. Lee underlined the importance of the U.S. discerning, firsthand, China's stance on the key issues of the war in Ukraine and the current political situation in Taiwan. For both Dr. Lee and Dr. Easley, it was vital that President Biden was able to meet, face-to-face, in order to gauge President Xi’s thoughts on these issues.
North Korea security challenges
According to Dr. Easley, North Korea is currently pursuing weapons and alliances, instead of accepting a diplomatic path to denuclearization or arms control. He shared his concern that many U.S. allies in the region are within range of North Korean missiles, especially as their weapons capacity is developing rapidly. Dr. Easley noted that by not upholding United Nations sanctions, China is enabling North Korea's behavior, and asserted that China has prioritized a geopolitical angle by maintaining North Korea as a “buffer state” intended to balance power with the U.S. and its allies in the region.
Referencing North Korea’s recent test of Intercontinental Ballistic missiles (ICBM), Dr. Lee spoke on how this particular type of missile could, in theory, hit U.S. continental territory. Although there is not sufficiently accurate public information on the actual offensive capabilities of the North Korean arsenal, Dr. Lee advised against underestimating them. Dr. Lee added that U.S. strategy could consider switching from deterrence to a more offensive position.
Dr. Lee also made note of the fact that Kim Jong-un's daughter was present at the last missile launch and said this gesture could be read as a sign that Kim trusts the military with protecting the next generation of Kim family rulers.
On denuclearization and arms control
Both speakers reflected on diplomatic paths to arms control, and whether denuclearization is still viable in negotiations with North Korea.
Dr. Lee explained that North Korea could not be officially recognized as a nuclear country by the international community since that would be rewarding their undesired behavior, and said he sees arms control as a more realistic approach than denuclearization. An ideal arms control strategy would include North Korea ceasing both the production and sale of weapons in exchange for compensation. From Dr. Easley's perspective, denuclearization will only be possible after a major political transformation within North Korea.
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Asia Society Texas believes in the strength and beauty of diverse perspectives and people. As an educational institution, we advance cultural exchange by celebrating the vibrant diversity of Asia, inspiring empathy, and fostering a better understanding of our interconnected world. Spanning the fields of arts, business, culture, education, and policy, our programming is rooted in the educational and cultural development of our community — trusting in the power of art, dialogue, and ideas to combat bias and build a more inclusive society.
