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The Avoidable War: An Alternative Future for U.S.-China Relations

ASPI Initiative

Donald J. Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit
Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead / Flickr

In recent years, China and the United States have begun drifting toward crisis, conflict, and even war. While there may be great forces of history steadily driving them in this direction, such a war is avoidable. A major conflict between the two biggest economies and military powers would be catastrophic for both, and for the rest of the world. Such a confrontation would also cripple the already fragile global order, similar to what took place in after the First World War—“the war to end all wars”—when the international order disappeared altogether.

The Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) seeks an alternative future for the United States and China, and seeks to build it through intensive research and consultations with the national political, policy and business elites of both countries. This is a critical task, because in the absence of a framework for managing differences, the ongoing shift in the balance of global power will create major instability and challenges for both countries, the Asia Pacific, and beyond.

Book

  • Kevin Rudd Book

    China and the U.S.: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition

    How to keep relations between Washington and Beijing from spiraling into catastrophe.

Commentary

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a news conference at the end of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation on May 15, 2017 in Beijing, China.
article

China’s Economic Downturn Gives Rise to a Winter of Discontent

Kevin Rudd writes in The Wall Street Journal about the economic and political outlook for China in 2022.
Xi Jinping
speech

Xi Jinping's Pivot to the State

Kevin Rudd's remarks on the impact of ideology, demography, and decoupling on China’s new economic policy framework
Xi Biden
article

Ideological Competition With China Is Inevitable — Like It or Not

Nathan Levine writes in Foreign Policy about the inevitable ideological competition between China and the U.S.
Xi jinping party congress
article

China Backslides on Economic Reform

Under Xi Jinping, Beijing hasn’t liberalized. It’s doubled down on politically directed state capitalism.
US and China G20 Delegations 2018
report

The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition

A compendium of 2019 speeches by ASPI President Kevin Rudd on the need to manage U.S.-China competition.
Trump Xi

Former World Leaders: The Trade War Threatens the World’s Economy

Kevin Rudd joins nine other former heads of state to urge the U.S. and China to fully resolve their conflict.
Kevin Rudd Speech London Chatham House
speech

China's Political Economy into 2020

Kevin Rudd delivered an address at a Chatham House Conference on China's Economic Future.
KR Bloomberg
interview

U.S.-China Relationship in 'Deep Disrepair'

Kevin Rudd joins Bloomberg to discuss the broader implications of Trump and Xi's "trade truce."
KR CNBC
interview

Kevin Rudd: It's Possible to Strike a China Trade Deal in 2019

After the G-20 summit, a U.S.-China deal looks likely in 2019.

Pagination

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Staff

  • The Hon. Kevin Rudd
    bio

    The Honorable Kevin Rudd

    President Emeritus, ASPI; Founding Chair, CCA; and Honorary Life Trustee, Asia Society
  • Jing Qian
    bio

    Jing Qian

    Co-Founder and Managing Director, Center for China Analysis
  • Nathan
    bio

    Nathan Levine

    Assistant Director, Center for China Analysis

Featured Video

  • The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the U.S. and Xi Jinping’s China
    Policy
     /  New York

    The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the U.S. and Xi Jinping’s China — New York Launch Event

    In the New York launch event for his book The Avoidable War, Kevin Rudd delivers remarks about the U.S.-China relationship before engaging in conversation with Ian Bremmer.
    Watch Now
  • The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the U.S. and Xi Jinping’s China
    Policy
     /  Washington, D.C.

    The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the U.S. and Xi Jinping’s China — D.C. Launch Event

    To coincide with the publication of his new book The Avoidable War, Kevin Rudd delivered remarks on U.S.-China relations before engaging in conversation with Wendy Cutler. Senator Mitt Romney provided an introduction.
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  • Kevin Rudd
    Policy
     /  New York

    Kevin Rudd: How the U.S. and China View 'Decoupling'

    The Asia Society Policy Institute president discussed the much-discussed concept of "decoupling" in the context of broader trends in the two countries.
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    Kevin Rudd: 5 Things To Watch in U.S.-China Relations in 2019

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Reports

  • U.S. President Joe Biden meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021.
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    Reflections on China and U.S.-China Relations in 2021

    A compendium of 2021 speeches and essays by ASPI President Kevin Rudd on The Avoidable War.
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    The Avoidable War: The Decade of Living Dangerously

    Kevin Rudd writes on navigating the shoals of U.S.-China relations.
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    A compendium of 2019 speeches by ASPI President Kevin Rudd on the need to manage U.S.-China competition.
  • Donald Trump with Xi Jinping at Welcoming Ceremony in China
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    The Avoidable War: U.S.-China Relations and the End of Strategic Engagement

    A compendium of six speeches by ASPI President Kevin Rudd on the increasingly fraught ties between the U.S and China.
  • (Feng Li/Getty Images)
    report

    U.S.-China 21: The Future of U.S.-China Relations Under Xi Jinping

    In his report for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, ASPI President Kevin Rudd recommends a common strategic narrative to guide the U.S.-China relationship.
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