Iran Deal 'Cannot Be Put on Autopilot' | Asia Society Skip to main content

Unsupported Browser Detected.
It seems the web browser you're using doesn't support some of the features of this site. For the best experience, we recommend using a modern browser that supports the features of this website. We recommend Google Chrome, Mozilla Firefox, or Microsoft Edge

  • Policy
    • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Center for China Analysis
      • Topics
      • Countries & Regions
      • Publications
      • Initiatives
      • Watch & Listen
      • Events
      • About
      • Support Us
    • Center on U.S.-China Relations
      • Home
      • About
      • Projects
      • Events
      • Reports
      • COAL + ICE
      • ChinaFile
  • Arts
    • Asia Society Museum
      • Visit
      • Exhibitions
      • Programs
      • Collection
      • Asia Society Triennial
      • The Asia Arts and Museum Network
      • Learn
      • Support
    • Asia Arts Game Changer Awards
      • About
      • Honorees
      • Ceremonies
      • Photos
      • Support
    • Creative Voices of Muslim Asia
      • Resources
      • Exhibitions
      • Videos
    • Film
    • Literature
    • Performing Arts
  • Education
    • Chinese Language Learning
    • Global Competency Resources
    • About
  • Initiatives
    • Arts
      • Arts & Museum Summit
      • Asia Arts Game Changer Awards
      • Asia Society Museum: The Asia Arts & Museum Network
      • Creative Voices of Muslim Asia
      • U.S.-China Museum Summit
      • U.S.-Asia Entertainment Summit
    • Education
      • Chinese Language Learning
      • About
    • Leadership
      • Asia Game Changer Awards
      • Asia 21 Young Leaders Initiative
      • Diversity Leadership Initiatives
      • U.S.-China Dialogue
    • Policy
      • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Center on U.S.-China Relations
    • Sustainability
      • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Coal + Ice
  • Countries & Regions
    • Column One
      • Afghanistan
      • American Samoa
      • Armenia
      • Australia
      • Azerbaijan
      • Bahrain
      • Bangladesh
      • Bhutan
      • Brunei
      • Cambodia
      • Central Asia
      • China
      • Cook Islands

      • Cyprus
      • East Asia
      • East Timor
      • Fiji
      • French Polynesia
      • Georgia
      • Guam
    • Column Two
      • Hong Kong
      • India
      • Indonesia
      • Iran
      • Iraq
      • Israel
      • Japan
      • Jordan
      • Kazakhstan
      • Kiribati
      • Kuwait
      • Kyrgyzstan
      • Laos
      • Lebanon
      • Macau
      • Malaysia
      • Maldives
      • Marshall Islands
      • Micronesia
      • Mongolia
    • Column Three
      • Myanmar
      • Nauru
      • Nepal
      • New Caledonia
      • New Zealand
      • Niue
      • North Korea
      • Northern Marianas
      • Oceania
      • Oman
      • Pakistan
      • Palau
      • Palestine
      • Papua New Guinea
      • Philippines
      • Qatar
      • Samoa
      • Saudi Arabia
      • Singapore
      • Solomon Islands
    • Column Four
      • South Asia
      • Southeast Asia
      • South Korea
      • Sri Lanka
      • Syria
      • Taiwan
      • Tajikistan
      • Thailand
      • Tibet
      • Tokelau
      • Tonga
      • Turkey
      • Turkmenistan
      • Tuvalu
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Uzbekistan
      • Vanuatu
      • Vietnam
      • Wallis and Futuna
      • West Asia
      • Yemen
  • Current Affairs
    • Topics
      • Business
      • Climate Change
      • Governance
    • Programming
      • Beyond the Headlines
      • Business of Asia
    • Center on U.S.-China Relations
      • Home
      • About
      • Projects
      • Reports
      • Past Events
      • ChinaFile
  • Look & Listen
    • Asia Society Magazine
    • ChinaFile
    • Podcasts
    • Video Gallery
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
  • Visit
    • Visit Us
      • Hong Kong
      • New York
      • Texas
    • Global Network
      • Australia
      • France
      • India
      • Japan
      • Korea
      • Northern California
      • Philippines
      • Southern California
      • Switzerland
      • Washington, D.C.
  • About
    • About Asia Society
    • Inclusion & Diversity
    • Background & History
    • Board of Trustees
    • Senior Leadership
    • Global Staff
    • Global Council
    • Careers
    • Interns and Volunteers
    • Financial Statements
    • For the Media
      • Press Releases
  • Support
    • The Campaign for Asia Society
    • Corporate Engagement
      • Business Council
      • Technology and Innovation Council
      • Global Talent and Diversity Council
      • Rising Executives Network
      • Enhancements to Membership
      • Corporate Membership
      • Global Corporate Leaders
    • Membership
    • Donate
    • Donor Privacy Statement
ASIABLOG
Subscribe
Search
  • Policy
    • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Center for China Analysis
      • Topics
      • Countries & Regions
      • Publications
      • Initiatives
      • Watch & Listen
      • Events
      • About
      • Support Us
    • Center on U.S.-China Relations
      • Home
      • About
      • Projects
      • Events
      • Reports
      • COAL + ICE
      • ChinaFile
  • Arts
    • Asia Society Museum
      • Visit
      • Exhibitions
      • Programs
      • Collection
      • Asia Society Triennial
      • The Asia Arts and Museum Network
      • Learn
      • Support
    • Asia Arts Game Changer Awards
      • About
      • Honorees
      • Ceremonies
      • Photos
      • Support
    • Creative Voices of Muslim Asia
      • Resources
      • Exhibitions
      • Videos
    • Film
    • Literature
    • Performing Arts
  • Education
    • Chinese Language Learning
    • Global Competency Resources
    • About
  • Initiatives
    • Arts
      • Arts & Museum Summit
      • Asia Arts Game Changer Awards
      • Asia Society Museum: The Asia Arts & Museum Network
      • Creative Voices of Muslim Asia
      • U.S.-China Museum Summit
      • U.S.-Asia Entertainment Summit
    • Education
      • Chinese Language Learning
      • About
    • Leadership
      • Asia Game Changer Awards
      • Asia 21 Young Leaders Initiative
      • Diversity Leadership Initiatives
      • U.S.-China Dialogue
    • Policy
      • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Center on U.S.-China Relations
    • Sustainability
      • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Coal + Ice
  • Countries & Regions
    • Column One
      • Afghanistan
      • American Samoa
      • Armenia
      • Australia
      • Azerbaijan
      • Bahrain
      • Bangladesh
      • Bhutan
      • Brunei
      • Cambodia
      • Central Asia
      • China
      • Cook Islands

      • Cyprus
      • East Asia
      • East Timor
      • Fiji
      • French Polynesia
      • Georgia
      • Guam
    • Column Two
      • Hong Kong
      • India
      • Indonesia
      • Iran
      • Iraq
      • Israel
      • Japan
      • Jordan
      • Kazakhstan
      • Kiribati
      • Kuwait
      • Kyrgyzstan
      • Laos
      • Lebanon
      • Macau
      • Malaysia
      • Maldives
      • Marshall Islands
      • Micronesia
      • Mongolia
    • Column Three
      • Myanmar
      • Nauru
      • Nepal
      • New Caledonia
      • New Zealand
      • Niue
      • North Korea
      • Northern Marianas
      • Oceania
      • Oman
      • Pakistan
      • Palau
      • Palestine
      • Papua New Guinea
      • Philippines
      • Qatar
      • Samoa
      • Saudi Arabia
      • Singapore
      • Solomon Islands
    • Column Four
      • South Asia
      • Southeast Asia
      • South Korea
      • Sri Lanka
      • Syria
      • Taiwan
      • Tajikistan
      • Thailand
      • Tibet
      • Tokelau
      • Tonga
      • Turkey
      • Turkmenistan
      • Tuvalu
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Uzbekistan
      • Vanuatu
      • Vietnam
      • Wallis and Futuna
      • West Asia
      • Yemen
  • Current Affairs
    • Topics
      • Business
      • Climate Change
      • Governance
    • Programming
      • Beyond the Headlines
      • Business of Asia
    • Center on U.S.-China Relations
      • Home
      • About
      • Projects
      • Reports
      • Past Events
      • ChinaFile
  • Look & Listen
    • Asia Society Magazine
    • ChinaFile
    • Podcasts
    • Video Gallery
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
  • Visit
    • Visit Us
      • Hong Kong
      • New York
      • Texas
    • Global Network
      • Australia
      • France
      • India
      • Japan
      • Korea
      • Northern California
      • Philippines
      • Southern California
      • Switzerland
      • Washington, D.C.
  • About
    • About Asia Society
    • Inclusion & Diversity
    • Background & History
    • Board of Trustees
    • Senior Leadership
    • Global Staff
    • Global Council
    • Careers
    • Interns and Volunteers
    • Financial Statements
    • For the Media
      • Press Releases
  • Support
    • The Campaign for Asia Society
    • Corporate Engagement
      • Business Council
      • Technology and Innovation Council
      • Global Talent and Diversity Council
      • Rising Executives Network
      • Enhancements to Membership
      • Corporate Membership
      • Global Corporate Leaders
    • Membership
    • Donate
    • Donor Privacy Statement

Iran Deal 'Cannot Be Put on Autopilot'

November 22nd, 2016


An Iranian woman walks past a mural on the wall of the former U.S. embassy in the Iranian capital Tehran on November 9, 2016. (Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images)

Related

Asia Society coverage of — and advice for — President-elect Donald Trump. Learn more

U.S. President Barack Obama has said that he considers the Iran nuclear deal one of his administration’s greatest foreign policy achievements. The deal, which was negotiated between Iran and the P5 + 1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany), went in effect early this year, and lifts economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran abandoning its nuclear build-up. But since the election of Donald Trump, the future of the deal has looked shaky, as both Trump and members of his transition team have repeatedly criticised it in the past, and threatened to pull out of it.

On November 16, 2016, Asia Society Switzerland discussed the future of the deal — and the future of Iran — with Philippe Welti, former Swiss ambassador to Iran, and Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group in Washington, D.C. Just before the event, we sat down with Ali to ask him some additional questions.

What will the Trump administration’s Iran agenda be? Will they try to kill the nuclear deal?

I don’t think that the Trump administration knows what its Iran agenda is going to be. They are probably still at the stage where they are trying to decide on their priorities. But I’m worried by the general attitude of the people in the Trump transition team, who are for the most part highly skeptical of this agreement and hostile towards Iran. And that is a source of concern because even if they don’t scrap the agreement, the deal cannot be put on autopilot and survive. By nature, it requires a lot of affirmative action to upkeep it.

But I hope that the Trump administration realizes it has enough problems on its hands, and doesn’t want to reopen an issue that — after the expenditure of much time, energy and diplomatic capital — has been resolved. The deal is actually working, and has at least removed one source of tension in a region that is already in turmoil. So a Trump administration should be as committed to the deal as the Obama administration is, and try to figure out ways of working with Iran.

Related

Watch: A discussion between experts, including Asia Society Policy Institute's Kevin Rudd, on the Iran nuclear deal and what it means for U.S.-Iran relations and the future of regional stability. Learn more

The election in the U.S. has also been closely followed in Iran itself. Who in Iran is happy, and who is concerned about Trump in the White House?

Some people in Iran prefer a U.S. president who lacks nuance and gives credence to their anti-American sentiments. For them, it’s much easier to point the finger at an administration that is widely seen as unreasonable, and to shift the blame to them. This is mostly the attitude of the hardliners, although I’ve heard it from pragmatists as well. Others are quite concerned about what the Trump administration is going to do, but still hope that, because it is a multilateral agreement, Iran is not going to be as isolated and cornered as before the deal, because the other signatory states will stand by it no matter what. I think it’s a bit naive to believe that if the Trump administration really wants to undermine the deal, it will do it in such a brazen way that the blame would clearly fall on the U.S.

Iranian President Rouhani promised that the deal would lead to economic growth. And while that has happened, it has been pretty limited so far. Why is that?

I think there were unreasonably high expectations in Iran about what the nuclear deal could deliver. People thought it would improve Iran’s economic wellbeing overnight. This was partially because the Iranian government wanted to build support for the deal, but also because of the international attention and the sense that Iran was a growing economy, and reconnecting it to the global economy would create big dividends.

But it’s important to understand that the agreement was never about trade and investment. It never promised Iran a certain degree of economic growth. It promised to lift the sanctions, and it did. And Iran has already been able to reap some of the benefits, though admittedly they are lower than what Iranians expected. 

If the deal collapses, what are going to be the global consequences? How will the world change?

It would set a very negative precedent. It would send a strong signal that multilateralism doesn’t mean much. And it could put the non-proliferation regime at extreme risk. I can well imagine that in case of an escalation, Iran would pull out of the deal and even more towards developing nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent. Finally, increasing tensions between Iran and the U.S. would have adverse effects on the regional level, and lead the two sides to retaliate towards each other in Syria or Iraq and else where. That would deepen those crises and make their resolutions even less likely.

Related Links

  • The Iran Nuclear Deal: A 'Monumental Outcome
  • ' With a Long Backstory
  • Video: Iran and the U.S.: After the Nuclear Deal
asia society switzerland
current affairs
donald trump
iran
barack obama
advice
interviews
hassan rouhani
iran nuclear deal
ali vaez
international relations
About
  • Mission & History
  • Our People
  • Become a Member
  • Career Opportunities
  • Corporate Involvement
visit us
  • Hong Kong
  • New York
  • Texas
global network
  • Australia
  • France
  • India
  • Japan
  • Korea
  • Northern California
  • Philippines
  • Southern California
  • Switzerland
  • Washington, D.C.
resources
  • Arts
  • Asia Society Magazine
  • ChinaFile
  • Current Affairs
  • Education
  • For Kids
  • Policy
  • Video
shop
  • AsiaStore
initiatives
  • Arts & Museum Summit
  • Asia 21 Young Leaders
  • Asia Arts Game Changer Awards
  • Asia Game Changer Awards
  • Asia Society Museum: The Asia Arts & Museum Network
  • Asia Society Policy Institute
  • Asian Women Empowered
  • Center on U.S.-China Relations
  • Coal + Ice
  • Creative Voices of Muslim Asia
  • Global Cities Education Network
  • Global Talent Initiatives
  • U.S.-Asia Entertainment Summit
  • U.S.-China Dialogue
  • U.S.-China Museum Summit
Connect
Email Signup For the media
Asia Society logo
©2023 Asia Society | Privacy Statement | Accessibility | Terms & Conditions | Sitemap | Contact

Asia Society takes no institutional position on policy issues and has no affiliation with any government.
The views expressed by Asia Society staff, fellows, experts, report authors, program speakers, board members, and other affiliates are solely their own. Learn more.

 

 

  • Visit Us
  • Hong Kong
  • New York
  • Texas
  • Global Network
  • Australia
  • France
  • India
  • Japan
  • Korea
  • Northern California
  • Philippines
  • Southern California
  • Switzerland
  • Washington, DC