Top Taliban Leader Arrested in Pakistan -- What It Means
"The mysterious arrest of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a leading light of the Afghan Taliban, from Karachi raises more questions then it answers. What was he doing in Karachi? Can one deduce that Afghan Taliban have moved from Quetta to Karachi? If so, how are they organizing the Taliban movement in far away Southern Afghanistan? It appears, however, that close collaboration between Pakistan and the U.S. led to this 'arranged surrender' in line with the new strategy revolving around the notion: 'the time is ripe for cutting a deal with the Taliban.’ At the same time the development shows that there is a policy shift in Pakistan and it is likely that more Afghan Taliban leaders will be 'arrested' soon. Whether these developments will change anything on the ground is yet to be seen, as Taliban field commanders may not be influenced and may continue what they are doing,” says Asia Society Bernard Schwartz Fellow Hassan Abbas.
“The capture of top Taliban commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Karachi is a major coup in the Afghan war, but it is still unclear what impact it will have in the longer term,” says Asia Society Executive Vice President Jamie Metzl. “In spite of this news and the major NATO offensive around Marjah, the situation in Afghanistan remains tenuous at best. While the Afghan government and NATO can continue make some progress at current troop and funding levels, it is not at all certain whether a sufficiently strong Afghan structure can emerge to take up the slack once troop and funding levels begin to be pulled back. With global finances in turmoil and taxpayers in revolt in the United States, Germany, and Japan, it’s hard to imagine how current resource levels can be maintained over time. The Taliban is not poised to take over Afghanistan, but they are well positioned to prevent the Karzai government from consolidating its position for the foreseeable future.”
Hassan and Jamie are in New York. To arrange interviews, contact the Asia Society communications department at 212-327-9271 or [email protected].