On November 10, 2017, ASPI’s Diplomat in Residence Daniel Russel appeared on the podcast “Pod Save the World” with host, and former colleague, Tommy Vietor to discuss President Donald Trump’s record-breaking 13-day trip to Asia. They covered President Trump’s decision to meet with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, North Korea, and President Xi Jinping’s extraordinary influence over China’s political system.

If prepared for well, explains Russel, presidential visits from the United States are action-forcing events. They are “the world’s biggest crowbar” for getting things done. “In terms of Asia, the big question is whether Xi Jinping’s ‘new era’ equates to the end of the ‘American era’ – I think the mission of this trip, in particular, is to answer that question. And then there’s always the ‘don’t-screw-it-up’ part of the planning,” Russel quips.

Trump’s trip began with Japan and Korea because the goal is reassurance. It’s important that you “begin by affirming your association with democratic and treaty allies, before you go off and visit and talk to the Chinese” Russel says.

Ultimately, however, China is “the big enchilada” on President’s Trump’s visit, both on trade and business but also in terms of the strategic relationship between the two countries. He notes that though it is too early to make an assessment on the Chinese leg of the trip, the region is waiting to see whether Xi was able to woo Trump with the considerable pomp and circumstance devoted to his visit.

“Since the Han dynasty, the Chinese have been practicing the art of wowing the visiting barbarian through a combination of means of co-opting and disarming the visitor.” We can only wait and watch to see if Trump’s mind has been changed. And on the question of whether we have to watch the President’s twitter feed, Russel says, “Trust me, no one is more worried about it than the Chinese.”

When it comes to North Korea, Russel has some cold comfort, because though there is cause to worry about North Korea’s progress on nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles programs, he says that “nobody, including the North Koreans, actually want war.” Russel explains:

North Korea is not in the war-fighting business. It’s in the shakedown business. The Kim family and the Gambino family have a basic business plan, and that is to scare the hell out of us, to induce us at a moment of panic and high anxiety to make a deal with them on their terms. To collect what they can collect, and then when our pockets are empty, to rinse and repeat.

Russel sees a clear pattern in Xi’s rhetoric on North Korea as well. “China’s position is no war, no chaos, no nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula; that means ‘no nukes’ comes in third,” Russel states. Chinese and U.S. interests regarding the North Korean nuclear program are not as aligned as we like to think. (1 hour, 5 min.)

Listen to the entire episode.