An Asia Society Policy Institute Report
Produced in Collaboration with Rhodium Group
In November 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping and other leaders announced a comprehensive program of economic reform, backed up by governance changes. The degree of boldness indicates that after 35 years of world-beating economic performance, China’s development model is obsolete and urgently in need of replacement. To justify the risks, President Xi quoted an impassioned plea for policy modernization by his predecessor Deng Xiaoping: the only way to avoid a dead end — a blind alley — is to deepen reform at home and opening to the world.
Despite this clarion call, observers have found several reasons to wonder what shape the reforms will take and whether the reform program will set China’s economy on a new path to sustained growth and bolster its trade and investment relationships.
Avoiding the Blind Alley: China’s Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications offers new insights on the changing profile and prospects of what will soon be the world’s largest economy. Written by Daniel H. Rosen, the report clarifies the ambitions of China’s economic reform program, assesses the progress China has made in implementing reforms, and forecasts the economic impacts the program will have on China and the world.
Chapter 1: Growth As We Knew It
Chapter 2: The Third Plenum Reform Program
Redefining Government: A New Mission
Center-Local Fiscal Reform
Competition Policy Reform
Financial System Reform
Foreign Trade and Investment Reform
State-owned Enterprise Reform
Land Policy Rationalization
Labor and Shared Welfare
Environmental Policy Reform
Innovation Policy Reform
Chapter 3: The Impact of China's Reforms Abroad
Chapter 4: Conclusions and Recommendations
About the Author | Acknowledgements
The Asia Society Policy Institute asked various experts to comment on whether China’s leaders called for the right reforms in various economic areas, and whether those reforms are likely to succeed.
Part One explains the context and analytical approach for “Avoiding the Blind Alley: China’s Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications,” an ASPI report produced with Rhodium Group.
Daniel H. Rosen and others discuss China’s economic reform plans and the findings from “Avoiding the Blind Alley,” a report from the Asia Society Policy Institute with Rhodium Group.