May 6, 2015 - Last week’s announcement that leader Kim Jong Un will not make the trip to Moscow this week should come as no surprise to anyone who follows North Korea.

Kim had been invited to an event to mark the seventieth anniversary of the Soviet Union’s World War II victory. North Korea had never issued a statement confirming Kim’s attendance, but Kremlin officials told reporters they expected Kim to be present. Again last week it was the Kremlin who ruled out Kim’s participation, chalking the cancellation up to unspecified “internal matters” in North Korea.

The possibility of the trip was full of juicy intrigue. How might Kim behave outside of his bubble, around real grownups who have no reason to fear him? How would the young leader, who did nothing to earn his throne other than be born, be treated by national leaders who presumably don’t see him as an equal? Would Kim head out on the town, popping bottles alongside the other shady millionaires that party in Moscow?

Despite the risks of losing face on a large stage, Kim also had plenty to gain from attending the event in Moscow. Pyongyang has incentive to develop new partners and ease reliance on China. North Korean officials are quietly ashamed of just how much they depend on trade with and support from their neighbour, while officials in Beijing are believed to be losing patience with North Korea’s nuclear program and volatility.

Not only is North Korea increasingly isolated on the global stage, it is growing more estranged from its only significant ally. In his more than two years in power, Kim has never met Chinese President Xi Jinping, or any other world leader.

And with North Korea’s reputation as a state with a dangerous nuclear weapons program and shameful human rights record, new friends are hard to come by.
Russia had stepped forward as a partner keen to increase cooperation, with the two countries even declaring 2015 a “Year of Friendship”. They’ve pledged cooperation on a number of energy projects, but it’s not clear how much progress will actually be made.

In November, Kim’s special envoy, Choe Ryong Hae, visited Moscow, where he met with both Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Choe was the third high-ranking North Korean official to visit Russia in 2014, after nominal head of state Kim Yong Nam and Foreign Minister Ri Su Yong. Kim showing his pudgy face in Moscow could have furthered the partnership through in-person meetings with Russian officials.

The Soviet Union was an ideological ally of North Korea’s during the Cold War and provided large amounts of aid, which dried up after its fall in the early 1990s. But Russia is limited as to how much support it can offer North Korea. Russia itself is increasingly isolated, facing a worsening economy and sanctions from the West over its aggressive actions in Ukraine and persecution of dissidents at home.

It is Kim Yong Nam that will now make the trip to Moscow, North Korea’s own official state media reported on Monday. Presumably he’ll be able to negotiate any business deals in Kim’s place, but can’t duplicate the powerful optics of the young leader abroad, and outside of a state-managed setting, for the first time.

Images of Kim attending a meeting alongside other leaders could have helped his reputation internationally, and led to more people seeing North Korea as a normal country.

But the reasoning at play here is the same that underpins so many of North Korea’s decisions: although there is something to gain, the element of risk is too great to handle. The risk of Kim committing a faux-pas and losing face was too much for Pyongyang to stomach.

Western journalists (myself included) in Seoul like to chuckle the parade of cliches that often appear in stories about North Korea, one of them being referring to the country as the “Hermit Kingdom”.

Though somewhat stale, this phrase is proving apt, as Kim continues to stay inside his opulent kingdom, just like a hermit afraid of the big world outside.

Steven Borowiec is a Los Angeles Times special correspondent in Seoul.