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How will U.S.-China trade friction evolve, and could escalation put in danger an otherwise distinctly positive global economic outlook? In China itself, what do the changes in long-term policy orientation heralded during the 19th Congress mean? How does one reconcile "Socialism with Chinese characteristics" with globalization and further integration of China into the world economy? How does China’s evolution affect the landscape of Asian manufacturing? Regardless, China’s global economic role continues to expand, in absolute terms and relative to that of the U.S. What are the key ways in which this shows up, and so what? Will this relative shift continue? While China is on the rise, U.S. financial markets and the dollar still dominate the global economy. When and how will that change?

Louis Kuijs is the Head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics (OE), based in Hong Kong. He leads the firm’s Asia research, with a specific focus on China, heading OE’s macroeconomic work and forecasting services. In 2012-2015, he worked at the Royal Bank of Scotland as Chief Economist, Greater China, leading research on China, Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Before that, Louis worked as project director at the Fung Global Institute in Hong Kong, coordinating research on evolving growth patterns in China and India. In 2004-2011, Louis was senior economist at the World Bank Office in Beijing, coordinating the Bank’s macroeconomic work on China and heading its China Quarterly Update. Louis also worked as a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC from 1997 to 2004

Cindy Li is a Senior Supervisory Analyst in the Division of Financial Institution Supervision and Credit at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF). In that capacity, she conducts research of Asian financial sectors and produces analyses of Asian foreign banking organizations. In addition, she monitors banking, regulatory, and economic developments in Asia, with a special focus on Greater China and the ASEAN region. Her research interests include financial regulation, financial vulnerability, and economic development. Prior to joining the FRBSF, Cindy was a senior economist at the Milken Institute, where she led numerous research projects on global capital market trends, financial regulations, and the Chinese economy.

Presented in partnership with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's Asia Financial Forum.