The North Korean Crisis Around the Corner
Project Syndicate
The following is an excerpt from Vice President Daniel Russel's op-ed originally published in Project Syndicate.
A new geopolitical crisis is stirring against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, tensions around Taiwan, and the sharpening U.S.-China rivalry. North Korea, after a three-year pause in nuclear provocations, is gearing up for what intelligence agencies warn could be a seventh nuclear test — possibly before the U.S. midterm elections on November 8.
Five years ago, the world faced the prospect of “fire and fury” as North Korean Dictator Kim Jong-un and then-U.S. President Donald Trump traded threats of nuclear war. A phony peace followed, as Kim met with several world leaders to gain sanctions relief in exchange for vague promises to scale back parts of his nuclear program.
After his failed Hanoi summit with Trump in 2019, Kim returned to Pyongyang and soon ordered a national lockdown in a futile effort to escape the COVID-19 pandemic. But North Korea’s nuclear-weapons and missile programs continued to advance rapidly.
Kim had signaled his intention to expand the North’s nuclear capabilities when he began his diplomatic outreach in early 2018, and he has been good to his word. Kim’s arsenal is now estimated to include about 50 nuclear weapons. Moreover, in 2020, shortly after test-firing a new type of submarine-launched ballistic missile, Kim unveiled a massive new long-range missile at a nighttime military parade meant to showcase the regime’s formidable weaponry. The following year, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that North Korea had restarted its plutonium-enrichment operations. Soon after, it test-fired long-range cruise missiles and a new nuclear-capable hypersonic missile.
So far this year, North Korea has launched more than 40 ballistic missiles in violation of the United Nations Security Council’s resolutions, including during U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ visit to Japan and South Korea last month. One missile flew over Japan. The regime also has resumed the illegal reprocessing of plutonium at its Yongbyon facility, and satellite images have revealed construction work at its nuclear-test site, Punggye-ri, reinforcing concerns that a seventh nuclear test could be imminent.
Kim’s determination to use his nuclear arsenal to intimidate his enemies, together with the changing geopolitical landscape as a result of the war in Ukraine, increases the likelihood that North Korea will reprise its “fire and fury” posturing. The threat to the region’s stability and to global security is serious.