The following is an except from Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) Schwarzman Fellow Daria Kurushina's op-ed in The Diplomat.

Each fall heralds a new attempt to catalyze climate ambitions and fortify green cooperation among the world’s biggest emitters and the nations most affected by climate change. The Conference of the Parties (COP), a set of annual climate talks conducted by the United Nations in late November and early December, offers the opportunity for these countries to commit to more ambitious goals. 

While all countries bring their agenda and promise to the stage, significant pressure lies on the shoulders of Chinese delegates, as representatives of the largest emitter try to balance between national energy security concerns, the pledges to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the need to compensate for unavoidable climate change consequences. This year, a couple of weeks before the long-anticipated COP28 in Dubai, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden announced a new bilateral round of climate actions promising to triple renewable energy capacity, reduce all GHG emissions — including long-awaited commitments on methane – and promote a circular economy. 

However, while international attention is on the bilateral pledges to ramp up climate diplomacy and achieve progress in curbing methane and enhancing renewables, there remains an implicit energy partnership between Russia and China, one that was reaffirmed during the Belt and Road Forum in October. This fossil fuel partnership between China with Russia could cast a shadow on the substantial progress that can be achieved at COP28. Specifically, geopolitical feuds and ambitions have dampened climate ambition, as states with high concentrations of fossil fuels seek to capitalize on fears of energy resiliency over meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.  

According to the report Phasing down or phasing up? composed by the leading climate organizations, including the UN Environment Program, SEI, Climate Analytics, etc., the 20 major fossil-fuel-producing governments still plan to increase extraction of coal, oil, and gas in the coming years, regardless of the Paris Agreement commitments and net-zero goals. The analysis specified that although listed countries have launched green initiatives, none is in line to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030, including the COP28 host (UAE) and its participants — including China, Russia, the United States, and others.

Foreseeing the disconnect between the COP28 president’s position as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, and the conferences’ goals to raise climate ambitions, the European Union is pushing for a world-first agreement to phase out unabated fossil fuels. And though, or perhaps because, many leading fossil fuels companies and nations will be attending, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned: “We must make up time lost to foot-dragging, arm-twisting and the naked greed of entrenched interests raking in billions from fossil fuels.” 

Read the full op-ed in The Diplomat.