The outcome of the national general elections in Solomon Islands on April 17, 2024, and the subsequent election of Jeremiah Manele on May 2 as the country’s prime minister triggered national and international interests. These elections were the first since the former prime minister, Manasseh Sogavare, forged a security agreement with China, and also marked the first time that elections for the national government, provincial assemblies, and the Honiara City Council took place simultaneously. Despite the involvement of heavyweight political parties, the greatest winners in the 2024 election were independent candidates with no connection to the China-U.S. geopolitics playing out in the country and the region. For the voters, the economic needs of the island state took precedence over any larger geopolitical play.

The Road to Elections and Outcomes

Although a small Pacific Islands state with an estimated population of 740,000 people, Solomon Islands has been at the center of a geopolitical power play since 2019 when then prime minister Sogavare switched diplomatic relations from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), infuriating long-time traditional partners such as Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. The diplomatic switch from Taiwan to the PRC was further consolidated in 2022 with a controversial security agreement signed between the two countries, paving way for deployment of Chinese security personnel into Solomon Islands in instances of political or social unrest. Although perceived as a strategic response to curb future riots and protests, Sogavare’s strategy could carry negative implications for the socioeconomic development of the country if not managed properly.

Empirically, riots, lootings, and protests have characterized Solomon Islands’ sociopolitical landscape. In November 2021, for example, two years after the switch from Taiwan to the PRC, public distaste and frustration about the switch culminated in protests, riots, and lootings of Chinese-owned shops in China Town, only to be brought under control by the intervention of regional forces led by Australia in partnership with New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji. Similar incidents occurred in 2006 during the election of Snyder Rini as prime minister, and in 2011, when Sogavare was reelected as prime minister. Interestingly, the incidents of 2006 and 2011 coincided with the presence of the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI). RAMSI, a coalition led by Pacific Island states with support from Australia and New Zealand, was deployed at the request of the Solomon Islands government to aid in the establishment of peace and security.

It was within this context that the security pact with China was signed in April 2022. The security agreement, however, was not made public until social media leaked it to the public domain, attracting widespread criticism from national and international communities, especially traditional partners such as the United States and Australia. The initial concern was that the security pact would eventually lead to the establishment of a Chinese military base in Solomon Islands.

Responding to this possibility, Sogavare categorically denied any potential for such a military base but stressed that the security arrangement was made for economic reasons, aimed at boosting Solomon Islands’ socioeconomic development with a secure business environment as well as to complement and beef up security provided by Australia and other regional partners.

Despite all these controversies, it is the Chinese-funded and newly built South Pacific Games stadium that became the Sogavare-led government’s firepower to counter public criticisms against its diplomatic relations with China. This, coupled with ongoing construction work on a new hospital complex to the east of the current hospital, notably with Chinese funding, along with major road construction works by a Chinese contractor, have all been leveraged as evidence to counter anti-Sogavare and anti-Chinese sentiments in the state.

It is against this backdrop that the April 17 national general election played out. Overall, 13 political parties participated in the elections, with the entire cabinet, except for the former minister of education and MP for Gizo and Kolombanagara, contesting under a single party called the Ownership, Unity, and Responsibility (OUR) party led by Sogavare. However, on April 17 a total of 18 incumbent OUR party ministers were defeated and lost their seats.

In Malaita Province, where Sogavare’s pro-China stance was publicly opposed by political leaders such as former provincial premier Daniel Suidani, OUR party suffered a major blow. The pro-China administration that was allegedly led by Premier Martin Fini was ousted and Suidani, a staunch supporter of the United States and Taiwan, was again returned to the provincial assembly. In addition, four of the eight OUR party incumbents representing Malaita in the national parliament were ousted. In Choiseul Province, particularly Northeast Choiseul, Sogavare narrowly escaped a strong challenge but claimed that his opponent was backed by external forces, notably the United States.

Nevertheless, Sogavare’s OUR party remains the largest party with a total of 15 seats in the 50-member parliament. The Democratic Party with Mathew Wale (opposition leader) has 11 seats, while Peter Kenilore Jr.’s United Party won 7 seats. The remaining seats were filled by independent candidates as well as 7 belonging to smaller political parties including People’s First Party, Kandere Party, and Solomon Islands Party for Rural Advancement (SIPRA).

With 13 parties and no single party majority to form a government, the competition rested between two major political coalitions: the Coalition for Accountability, Reform and Empowerment (CARE) composed of the Democratic Party and the United Party, spearheaded by Mathew Wale, and Sogavare’s OUR party. These two major coalitions are guided by different political philosophies and agendas.

CARE, which is mainly composed of the Democratic Alliance Party (DAP) and Solomon Islands Democratic Party (SIDP), positioned itself as a reform-driven party advocating for good governance—accountability, transparency, and reforms in public sector management.

CARE attempted to appeal to voters’ emotions and frustrations about the deteriorating social and economic services in the country. It launched campaigns on the basis of improving health systems, education, and infrastructure to enhance quality of life for Solomon Islanders.

On the other hand, the OUR coalition platform focused mainly on maintaining stability, enhancing economic development, and retaining strong diplomatic relationships notably with China. The OUR coalition tends to draw support from those who prioritize continuity in government and economic benefits promised from foreign donor partners.

However, the election resulted in a loss for 40% of sitting MPs from CARE parties. Similarly, for the OUR party, the election outcome was not positive, especially for incumbents.

What transpired in the political space is that voters based their election decisions on their domestic and pragmatic experiences of enduring challenging and tough economic pressures. As warned by the governor of the Central Bank of Solomon Islands, the country’s economic performance was bleak and its GDP had contracted significantly in recent years. Such an economic environment made voters’ lives difficult, especially those who gave precedence to on-the-ground economic policies over the greater China-U.S. geostrategic competition playing out in the country, although a minority may have voted based on regional and international geopolitical considerations.

Implications for Regional Unity

Although the eyes of the region were on four-time Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, it was surprising when Sogavare declined to contest for another term as prime minister but nominated his former foreign minister and diplomat Jeremiah Manele.

In an exclusive interview with local journalists during the OUR party’s nomination of Manele for prime minister, Sogavare stated that he had every confidence in Manele’s leadership ability and that Manele was a “competent” leader who had ascended through the rank and file of the public service system to become the country’s ambassador to the UN. Manele won 31 votes in a secret ballot of 49 lawmakers who won general elections on April 17, while Matthew Wale received the remaining votes.

However, to a lot of Solomon Islanders, the election of Jeremiah Manele as prime minister was a shrewd and well-orchestrated strategy to neutralize the mounting anti-Sogavare sentiments in the country. Some defamation campaigns unfolded, for example, a Facebook page run by a group known as TVOT used vulgar language against Manele as well as Sogavare. Relatives of TVOT members later had to publicly apologize and pay compensation to the newly elected prime minister and his family to maintain peace and stability in the country.

However, for the Pacific region, if there is one thing that is certain from these elections, it is the continuity and maintenance of Sogavare’s “Look North” policy, notably to China. This is not surprising given that the switch to China in 2019 was facilitated when Manele was the minister for foreign affairs and trade; thus, he is well-versed in the Look North policy. Many see the newly elected prime minister and his cabinet as nothing more than a repackaged version of the Sogavare-led government and that China–Solomon Islands relations will continue unabated and shape the development trajectory of the region.

China’s influence and power in the Pacific have been reiterated over the years. In September 2019, for example, Solomon Islands and later Kiribati switched diplomatic relations to the PRC. Then in January 2024, Nauru followed suit, taking the total number of Pacific Islands countries with diplomatic relations with the PRC to 11. Only Palau, Marshal Islands, and Tuvalu remain with Taiwan. This largely challenges regional unity and regard for the Pacific region as their sphere of influence of the United States, Australia, and other traditional partners.

Although Solomon Islands newly elected prime minister will undoubtedly maintain a Look North and China-friendly policy, he is expected to pursue a less confrontational approach to regional and international powers than his predecessor, given his background as a diplomat.

In pursuing the development needs and aspirations of Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Manele is likely to balance his country’s development needs against the security needs of the region, notably in terms of peace, stability, and unity of island nations in the Pacific.

Emerging Challenges and Opportunities

The newly elected prime minister may be faced with potential challenges and opportunities amid the ongoing geopolitical competition in the region.

An immediate challenge facing Manele is improvement of the economy. During his inaugural speech as prime minister, he stated that his government’s urgent priority was “economic transformation.” But it will not be an easy feat unless he initiates fresh reforms and policies to deal with the structural issues affecting the country’s economy, unlike his predecessor, Sogavare. This includes addressing a narrow economy and tax base, high unemployment, continuous fiscal deficit, low production, shallow markets, shallow financial system, and weak financial policy transmission mechanisms.

There is also the challenge of depoliticizing the public service that has in recent years been subjected to heavy government influence and interference. A classic example was the appointment of permanent secretaries who usually were political supporters. Furthermore, Manele must deal with issues of corruption in the public service under the Anti-Corruption Act (2018). Manele has to address these issues if he is to take the country on a different development trajectory than his predecessor.

At the foreign policy level, Manele’s new government’s ability to navigate the competing interests of China and the United States in the region and adhere to its foreign policy cliché of “Friends to all and enemy to none” will be a challenge as China increases its presence and investments in the region including Solomon Islands as part of its Belt and Road initiative (BRI).

China’s assertive influence in the region and particularly in Solomon Islands, especially its strategic motives, concerns the United States and other Western powers. A well-thought-out balancing act by Jeremiah Manele will be important to maintain good relations with both the United States and China and avoid being drawn into geopolitical tensions.

On the domestic front, Solomon Islands’ political environment is highly volatile with MPs switching sides easily, contributing to increased incidences of no-confidence votes in its post-independence history. Such fluidity in the country’s political environment is a challenge that requires careful navigation. This could be critical given that the government is made up of a coalition of political parties, with a pro-U.S. opposition group, led by Mathew Wale along with other key political figures such as Peter Kenilorea Jr.; former prime minister Gordon Darcy Lilo; and Hon. Ricky Hou, also a former prime minister. Thus, it will be important for Manele to maintain the stability of his government while delivering what he promised the nation including his government’s 100-day plan, currently being finalized.

Besides the challenges, Manele also has several opportunities that can be leveraged for the development of Solomon Islands and the region. One of the opportunities lies in the country’s natural resources including its rich biodiversity, fertile land, and abundant marine resources. Manele could initiate deals with both China and United States to assist in promoting sustainable resource management practices, ecotourism initiatives, and agricultural diversification to harness the economic potentials of the country. A classic example is the reviewing of bills and legislation relating to natural resource such as the Forestry Act and the Mines and Minerals Act that Manele noted during his inaugural speech. Here, Manele could leverage technical assistance from China, the United States, Australia, or other donor partners.

Increased competition among global powers over the region and Solomon Islands in particular presents opportunities for greater investments, development assistance, and infrastructure projects in the region. Manele’s government could leverage this competition, albeit with caution, to secure resources and support for key government development priorities in areas such as infrastructure, health care, and education. An example could be a request for an increased number of scholarships from Australia, China, the United States, and other donor partners for Solomon Islands students to study in overseas universities as well as locally at Solomon Islands National University (SINU) and other institutions of learning in the region.

As a small island developing state in the Pacific, Solomon Islands, under the leadership of Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele, can potentially play a strategic role in promoting dialogue between China and the United States, facilitating, where possible, communication and collaboration on common challenges in Solomon Islands and the region. These include climate change, maritime security, and economic development. By engaging with both China and the United States in a constructive and mutually beneficial manner, Solomon Islands can position itself as a valuable partner in regional politics and fulfill its foreign policy stance of “Friends to all and enemy to none.”

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