Playing with Fire? Assessing the Fallout From the Pelosi Taiwan Visit on the Strategic Stability of U.S.-China Relations
VIEW EVENT DETAILSU.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last week elicited an intensified pressure campaign from the PRC to signal their displeasure with a strengthened U.S.-Taiwan relationship. This response against Taiwan ranged from unprecedented live-fire drills simulating a blockade of the island; to sanctions against Taiwanese foundations and individuals; and new restrictions on food imports. China has also cut off or suspended several key dialogues with the U.S., including military-to-military and climate change talks.
The stakes for a major Taiwan Strait crisis are much higher now than in the past — the PRC has more formidable military capabilities, U.S.-China relations are at a historic low; bipartisan U.S. support for Taiwan is at an all-time high, and Taiwan is more enmeshed in the global supply chain that would certainly grind to a halt if these tensions erupted into a war.
What, therefore, should we be watching out for as this unfolds? How are the actions and reactions between China and the U.S. seen in the region? And is there a viable path forward that breaks this downward spiral in cross-Taiwan Strait relations? Please join Asia Society and Asia Society Policy Institute President Kevin Rudd, Asia Society Policy Institute Vice President Daniel Russel, Asia Society Center on U.S.-China Relations Arthur Ross Director Orville Schell, German Marshall Fund Asia Program Director Bonnie Glaser, and Asia Society Policy Institute Managing Director Rorry Daniels for a focused discussion on where to next — and what to do about it.
SPEAKERS
The Hon. Kevin Rudd AC is President and CEO of the Asia Society, and inaugural President of the Asia Society Policy Institute. He served as 26th Prime Minister of Australia (2007 to 2010, 2013) and as Foreign Minister (2010 to 2012). He is Chair of the Board of the International Peace Institute in New York, and Chair of Sanitation and Water for All – a global partnership of government and non-governmental organizations dedicated to the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 6. He is a Distinguished Fellow at Chatham House and the Paulson Institute, and a Distinguished Statesman with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a member of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization’s Group of Eminent Persons.
Daniel Russel is the Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI). Previously he served as a Diplomat-in-Residence and Senior Fellow with ASPI for a one year term. A career member of the Senior Foreign Service at the U.S. Department of State, he most recently served as the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. He served at the White House as Special Assistant to the President and National Security Council Senior Director for Asian Affairs, where he helped formulate President Obama’s strategic rebalance to the Asia Pacific region, including efforts to strengthen alliances, deepen U.S. engagement with multilateral organizations, and expand cooperation with emerging powers in the region. Among many roles at the Department of State, he served as Director of the Office of Japanese Affairs and U.S. Consul General in Osaka-Kobe.
Bonnie S. Glaser is director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She was previously senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Ms. Glaser is concomitantly a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum. For more than three decades, Ms. Glaser has worked at the intersection of Asia-Pacific geopolitics and U.S. policy. From 2008 to mid-2015, she was a senior adviser with the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, and from 2003 to 2008, she was a senior associate in the CSIS International Security Program. Prior to joining CSIS, she served as a consultant for various U.S. government offices, including the Departments of Defense and State. Ms. Glaser has published widely in academic and policy journals, including the Washington Quarterly, China Quarterly, Asian Survey, International Security, Contemporary Southeast Asia, American Foreign Policy Interests, Far Eastern Economic Review, and Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, as well as in leading newspapers such as the New York Times and International Herald Tribune and in various edited volumes on Asian security. She is also a regular contributor to the Pacific Forum web journal Comparative Connections.
Orville Schell is the Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society in New York. He is a former professor and Dean at the University of California, Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism. Schell is the author of 15 books, 10 of them about China, and a contributor to numerous edited volumes. His most recent books are: Wealth and Power, China’s Long March to the 21st Century; Virtual Tibet; The China Reader: The Reform Years; and Mandate of Heaven: The Legacy of Tiananmen Square and the Next Generation of China’s Leaders. He has written widely for many magazine and newspapers, including The Atlantic, The New Yorker, Time, The New Republic, Harpers, The Nation, The New York Review of Books, Wired, Foreign Affairs, The China Quarterly, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Los Angeles Times.
Rorry Daniels (moderator) is the Managing Director of Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), where she leads and oversees strategy and operations for ASPI's projects on security, climate change and trade throughout Asia. She was previously with the National Committee on American Foreign Policy where she managed the organization's Track II and research portfolio on Asia security issues, with a particular focus on cross-Taiwan Strait relations, U.S.-China relations, and the North Korean nuclear program. Her most recent research project audited the U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue to evaluate its process and outcomes.