TOKYO, JAPAN – Trade experts discussed the prospects for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), along with their views on growing anti-trade sentiment on a panel convened by the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) and the Japanese Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) on September 16. The conversation, moderated by ASPI Vice President Wendy Cutler, was held in Tokyo on the occasion of the third meeting of ASPI’s Trade Policy Commission on regional trade architecture

RCEP

With respect to RCEP, a plurilateral negotiation consisting of sixteen Asian countries, Peter Grey, former Ambassador of Australia to the World Trade Organization (WTO), hoped that by no longer calling for an end of the year conclusion to the talks, negotiators would have more time to achieve a comprehensive and ambitious agreement that would further regional liberalization.

While RCEP has often been portrayed as a rival to the TPP, panelists agreed that the two agreements both aimed for trade liberalization and were thus complementary. Shotaro Oshima, the former Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Affairs for Japan, noted that “because of the difference in coverage in terms of membership, to have RCEP successfully completed [would] complement the effort of TPP.”

TPP

The discussion touched on one of the most anticipated topics of the event, the prospects for TPP ratification. Oshima explained that Diet deliberations for TPP ratification would start shortly and that the Abe administration hoped to have the agreement ratified as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Grey said that although there would be some opposition, he did not expect any major difficulty in moving the agreement forward in Australia’s parliament.

On the situation in the United States, Cutler expressed her continued hope that TPP would be approved by Congress this year citing three factors: the commitment of the President to getting it done this year; the commitment by the Republican Congressional leadership to free trade as evidenced by the last year’s passage of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA); and the ability of the Administration and Congress to reach a resolution to the outstanding issues if the political will exists. 

The panelists from China and Korea discussed the possibility of TPP accession by non-member countries. Wang Yong, Professor at the Peking University School of International Studies, said that though China has hesitations in joining the TPP due to the high level of standards, he believes that “TPP represent[s] the new generation of 21st century rules… it’s a very good time for China’s economy and domestic institutions to get on board in the future.” Choi Seokyoung, former Ambassador of Korea to the WTO, believed that “Korea missed an opportunity to join [the TPP negotiations].” He added that Korea is prepared to join and hopes for the agreement’s early entry into force. 

The experts also discussed the rising trend of anti-trade sentiment in the United States and elsewhere in the world. They attributed the trend to concerns over the impact of globalization. “Concern over trade has begun to rise,” Grey said, arguing that if trade has become a target, it is “partly a failure of everyone to explain as effectively as they should what the benefits of trade are.” Choi warned, “delaying ratification would cause a significant commercial loss for the participating members, including the United States.” Cutler added, “the implications of TPP not passing are very serious and would risk U.S. leadership in the Asia-Pacific region.”