China's Property Sector

Following the Evergrande debt crisis of late 2021, the Chinese property sector has experienced substantial corrections.  For decades, the gravity-defying expansion of the sector had been a prime engine of growth for the Chinese economy. Yet recent contractions and uncertainty in the sector lay bare long-term structural imbalances in the economy, and present profound challenges for Chinese policymakers. How the current slowdown will continue to unfold has major implications not only for China's near-term economic recovery, but also for whether the country can successfully transition towards a more sustainable long-term growth model led by domestic consumption.

In 2023, the Center for China Analysis and the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) co-organized a closed-door roundtable convening leading global experts to assess the extent, causes, and implications of China's property sector downturn. This summary report of the roundtable, the second in a series conducted under the Chatham House Rule, outlines the key insights of this candid discussion, which centered around four key questions:

1. How sharp and sustained do we expect the slowdown in China’s property sector to be?
2. What are the most important determinants of this slowdown: government policy or structural factors? 
3. What are the implications of China’s property slowdown for other areas of the Chinese economy?
4. What can China do to offset the risks and negative consequences associated with the property slowdown? 

In partnership with Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions (SCCEI)