China's Property Sector
CCA-SCCEI Roundtable Summary Report
Following the Evergrande debt crisis of late 2021, the Chinese property sector has experienced substantial corrections. For decades, the gravity-defying expansion of the sector had been a prime engine of growth for the Chinese economy. Yet recent contractions and uncertainty in the sector lay bare long-term structural imbalances in the economy, and present profound challenges for Chinese policymakers. How the current slowdown will continue to unfold has major implications not only for China's near-term economic recovery, but also for whether the country can successfully transition towards a more sustainable long-term growth model led by domestic consumption.
In 2023, the Center for China Analysis and the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) co-organized a closed-door roundtable convening leading global experts to assess the extent, causes, and implications of China's property sector downturn. This summary report of the roundtable, the second in a series conducted under the Chatham House Rule, outlines the key insights of this candid discussion, which centered around four key questions:
- How sharp and sustained do we expect the slowdown in China’s property sector to be?
- What are the most important determinants of this slowdown: government policy or structural factors?
- What are the implications of China’s property slowdown for other areas of the Chinese economy?
- What can China do to offset the risks and negative consequences associated with the property slowdown?
In partnership with Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions (SCCEI)