5-Steps to a Grand Bargain with China on North Korea
Kevin Rudd on CNBC's Squawk Box
On September 6, 2017, ASPI President Kevin Rudd spoke with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” about understanding the Chinese calculus regarding North Korea, and what it would take for the China to support American efforts at denuclearization.
Rudd points out that China is very sensitive to the prospect of “a unified Korean peninsula with a pro-American state,” which would place “American military forces close to or within reach of the Yalu, the Chinese border.” As long as that concern isn’t addressed, “the nuclearization question will always come at a distant last” for China. In fact, according to Rudd, “the Chinese will not deal within the narrow perimeters of the nuke question; they will deal with the nuke [question] as part of the broader question.”
Rudd describes what China would require from the United States in a grand bargain about the Korean Peninsula. In addition to a peace treaty, a security guarantee, and recognition of the North Korean regime, China would demand “a scheduled withdrawal of U.S. military forces from the south overtime in exchange for the verification … that the North Korean nukes are not only stopped but gone.” (3 min., 39 sec.)