The following is an excerpt from an article in Foreign Policy by Philipp Ivanov, Chief Programming Officer at the Asia Society and Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. 

In 1949, a new tune hit Soviet airwaves in honor of Chinese leader Mao Zedong’s first visit to Moscow. “Moscow-Beijing” was a hearty military march sung by an all-male choir, with a catchy opening line — “Russians and Chinese are brothers forever” — capturing the spirit of socialist solidarity. The Soviet Union was cast as a big brother to the newly emerged People’s Republic of China, weakened by the devastating Japanese invasion and the civil war. And while Beijing was happy to take Soviet aid, resentment at being cast as the younger sibling would be one of the factors that eventually led the relationship to curdle.

This week, as Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Moscow, the power dynamics are reversed. Today, China is the big brother — and Russia is increasingly, if not completely, playing the role of supplicant.

China, the world’s second superpower, is a senior partner to a Russia now enfeebled and isolated by its war on Ukraine and more dependent than ever on China for economic, technological, and diplomatic support. If Russian trade data is to be believed, in January and February Chinese exports to Russia grew by nearly 20% to a total of $15 billion, and imports from Russia climbed by more than 31% to $18.65 billion. The yuan has surpassed the U.S. dollar as the most traded currency on the Moscow stock exchange. Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s largest oil supplier, with nearly 24% year-on-year growth in the first two months of this year.

China is clearly the top dog in the relationship, with an economy more than 10 times larger than Russia’s, a rapidly modernizing military, technological superiority, and global diplomatic weight.

But it is premature to call Russia a vassal state to China, as some analysts have done. Dependency does not equal subservience. Russia remains a major nuclear power and globally significant exporter of energy, resources, and food. The Russian economy — while damaged — has so far demonstrated a remarkable resilience in the face of Western sanctions. Russia has a strategic bulk that China needs as it prepares for long-term competition and potential conflict with the United States. China and Russia share one of the longest land borders between nation-states, one that has been peaceful for decades, giving both countries a breathing space to face their respective adversaries in the East and West.

So while diminished and lonely on the world stage, Russia still has agency and heft in its relationship with a more dominant and powerful China.

China — facing a hostile United States, disillusioned Europe, and slowing economy at home — also needs Russia in its corner in its quest to become a global rule-setter and the dominant power in Asia.

Top of the agenda is Ukraine. Xi’s briefing pack is China’s “peace initiative” for Ukraine — a summary of Beijing’s official positions on the conflict. None of its 12 points offer anything specific to end the bloodshed. All of them promote — albeit only rhetorically — Beijing’s credentials as a responsible and peace-loving global power.

Read the full article in Foreign Policy.