References
1 “Xi Jinping Delivers an Important Speech at the General Debate of the 75th Session of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly,” Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the United States of America, September 22, 2020, https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/ceus/eng/zgyw/t1817766.htm.
2 The outline also sets a binding target for China’s forest coverage rate to reach 24.1%, up from 23.2% in 2020, primarily as part of ongoing environmental protection efforts, though with modestly positive implications for climate.
3 “关于印发《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》的通知,” National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China, March 22, 2022, https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/tzgg/202203/t20220322_1320017.html?code=&s….
4 “国家能源局有关负责同志就《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》答记者问,” 中华人民共和国政府, March 22, 2022, http://www.nea.gov.cn/2022-03/22/c_1310525569.htm.
5 “关于印发“十四五”可再生能源发展规划的通知,” National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China, June 1, 2022, https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/tzgg/202206/t20220601_1326720.html.
6 “关于印发《“十四五”能源领域科技创新规划》的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, November 29, 2021, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-04/03/content_5683361.htm.
7 “国务院关于印发“十四五”节能减排综合工作方案的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, January 24, 2022, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2022-01/24/content_5670202.htm.
8 “交通运输部 科学技术部关于印发《“十四五”交通领域科技创新规划》的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, March 10, 2022, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-04/09/content_5684262.htm.
9 “国家发展改革委 国家能源局关于印发《“十四五”新型储能发展实施方案》的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, January 29, 2022, http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/2022-01/29/c_1310523208.htm.
10 “住房和城乡建设部关于印发“十四五”住房和城乡建设科技发展规划的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, March 1, 2022, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-03/12/content_5678693.htm.
11 The document’s full title is “Opinions of the Central Committee and State Council on the Complete, Accurate, and Comprehensive Implementation of the Work on Effectively Carrying Out Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality under the New Development Theory” – hence its moniker as “the ‘1’ document.”
12 “中共中央 国务院关于完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念做好碳达峰碳中和工作的意见,” 中华人民共和国政府, October 24, 2021, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2021-10/24/content_5644613.htm.
13 “国家发展和改革委就完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念做好碳达峰碳中和工作《意见》答问,” The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China, October 24, 2021, http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/gbwxwfbh/xwfbh/fzggw/Document/1715225/1715….
14 “国务院关于印发2030年前碳达峰行动方案的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, October 26, 2021, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2021-10/26/content_5644984.htm.
15 “国家发展改革委 国家能源局关于完善能源绿色低碳转型体制机制和政策措施的意见,” National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China, January 30, 2022, https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202202/t20220210_1314511.html?code….
16 “国家能源局有关负责同志就《关于完善能源绿色低碳转型体制机制和政策措施的意见》答记者问,” 中华人民共和国政府, February 11, 2022, http://www.nea.gov.cn/2022-02/11/c_1310465553.htm.
17 “关于印发《财政支持做好碳达峰碳中和工作的意见》的通知,” Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China, May 30, 2022, http://zyhj.mof.gov.cn/zcfb/202205/t20220530_3814434.htm.
18 “财政部有关负责人就出台《财政支持做好碳达峰碳中和工作的意见》答记者问,” Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China, May 30, 2022, http://zyhj.mof.gov.cn/zcfb/202205/t20220530_3814460.htm.
19 “关于印发《减污降碳协同增效实施方案》的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, June 17, 2022, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-06/17/content_5696364.htm.
20 “住房和城乡建设部 国家发展改革委关于印发城乡建设领域碳达峰实施方案的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, July 13, 2022, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-07/13/content_5700752.htm.
21 “工业和信息化部 国家发展改革委 生态环境部关于印发工业领域碳达峰实施方案的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, August 1, 2022, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-08/01/5703910/files/f7edf77024….
22 “科技部等九部门关于印发《科技支撑碳达峰碳中和实施方案（2022—2030年）》的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, August 18, 2022, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-08/18/content_5705865.htm.
23 “关于2021年国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况与2022年国民经济和社会发展计划草案的报告（摘要）,” 中华人民共和国政府, March 6, 2022, http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/c30834/202203/75ab26926b054130865473aefd59e4e….
24 “关于2021年国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况与2022年国民经济和社会发展计划草案的报告（摘要）,” People's Daily, March 6, 2022, http://lianghui.people.com.cn/2022npc/n1/2022/0306/c441810-32367375.htm….
25 “第十三届全国人民代表大会财政经济委员会关于2021年中央和地方预算执行情况与2022年中央和地方预算草案的审查结果报告,” People's Daily, March 9, 2022, http://lianghui.people.com.cn/2022npc/n1/2022/0309/c441810-32370222.htm….
26 “国务院办公厅转发国家发展改革委国家能源局关于促进新时代新能源高质量发展实施方案的通知,” 中华人民共和国政府, May 30, 2022, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2022-05/30/content_5693013.htm.
27 “关于进一步推动新型储能参与电力市场和调度运用的通知,” National Development and Reform Commission, June 7, 2022, https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/tzgg/202206/t20220607_1326855.html?code=&s….
28 Current nuclear reactors are highly water-dependent, limiting practicality and safety inland. China, like other global nuclear energy leaders, is working on various advanced reactor designs with limited water dependence, which would transform the geography of the nuclear energy market. However, such investments are notoriously difficult to commercialize, and no one knows when, or if, efforts will pay off.
29 The secondary sector includes manufacturing, construction, and energy production.
30 “2022年一季度国内生产总值初步核算结果,” National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, April 19, 2022, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202204/t20220419_1829775.html.
31 “国家能源局关于印发《2022年能源工作指导意见》的通知,” National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China, January 18, 2022, https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202201/t20220128_1313653.html?code….
32 “李克强总理作政府工作报告（文字摘要）,” Xinhua, March 5, 2022, http://www.gov.cn/premier/2022-03/05/content_5677248.htm.
33 Chi Jingyi, Yin Yeping, “State Grid Vows to Ensure Power Demand for Livelihood Needs,” Global Times, September 28, 2021, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235270.shtml.
34 Meanwhile, natural gas remains the natural pivot point between a coal-centric and a renewables-centric grid; natural gas is capable of providing baseload power at all hours of the day, akin to coal, but with far fewer emissions. Investments in natural gas infrastructure and power market reforms to bolster the transmission of renewable energy take time, but at present, the “do or die” policy pressure that Beijing is applying to officials throughout the bureaucracy lies squarely with protecting coal as a matter of energy security and, hence, economic stability. This leaves us wondering when the pendulum will ultimately swing – and meaningful pressure will be applied to building out the envisioned non-coal-based energy system.
35 Ken Moritsugu, “China Calls Russia Its Chief ‘Strategic Partner’ Despite War,” AP News, March 7, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-global-trade-….
36 Notably, the plummet was driven by thermal coal imports, which then constituted over 80% of China’s imports of Russian coal. China’s coking coal imports – used for steelmaking – demonstrated far less elasticity of demand, and actually rose in light of domestic steel demand increases. Nonetheless, with coking coal accounting for just 17% of total imports, the net change to overall coal imports was clearly and significantly negative.
37 In contrast, China’s small, independent refiners indeed took advantage of cheap Russian oil and gas imports wherever they could, on the principle that they were small enough to avoid international political attention – and indeed they did, for the most part. But by virtue of the same lack of size – and the market domination of the national oil companies – independent refiners’ engagement has also fallen far short of anything approximating material economic support for Russia.
38 “甘肃省印发《甘肃省“十四五”清洁生产推行方案》全面推行工业领域清洁生产,” 北极星环保网, July 12, 2022, https://huanbao.bjx.com.cn/news/20220712/1240336.shtml.
39 “省发展改革委 省能源局关于印发《浙江省“十四五”新型储能发展规划》和浙江省“十四五”第一批新型储能示范项目的通知,” Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission, June 6, 2022, https://fzggw.zj.gov.cn/art/2022/6/6/art_1229539890_4933248.html.
40 “江西“十四五”能源发展规划印发：新增光伏16GW+、风电2GW+,” 国际能源网, May 18, 2022, https://m.in-en.com/article/html/energy-2315819.shtml.
41 “《云南省“十四五”生态环境保护规划》印发,” 北极星环保网, April 28, 2022, https://huanbao.bjx.com.cn/news/20220428/1221414.shtml.
42 Pan Wenjing, “河北省：到2025年布局建设新型储能规模400万千瓦以上,” 中国储能网, April 21, 2022, http://www.escn.com.cn/news/show-1384102.html.
43 “全球首个钙钛矿光伏地面电站在衢江开工,” 中国能源网, February 21, 2022, https://www.china5e.com/news/news-1130038-1.html.
44 “国家发展改革委等部门关于推进共建“一带一路”绿色发展的意见,” National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China, March 16, 2022, https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202203/t20220328_1320629.html?code….
45 “Belt and Road Initiative: China ended coal financing last year, but oil and gas investments tripled, study shows,” South China Morning Post, February 11, 2022, https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3166523/belt-and-road-initiative-….
46 “中共中央政治局召开会议 分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作 审议《关于十九届中央第九轮巡视情况的综合报告》 中共中央总书记习近平主持会议,” Xinhua, July 28, 2022, http://www.news.cn/politics/leaders/2022-07/28/c_1128871681.htm.
47 Scott Kennedy, “The Coming NEV War? Implications of China’s Advances in Electric Vehicles,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 2020, https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/2011….