MUMBAI, 1 February 2018: Asia Society India Centre hosted a private breakfast roundtable with Dr. David Malone, Under-Secretary General of the United Nations and Rector of United Nations University, on the subject of North Korea’s foreign policy and its likely implications on key regional and global powers. The programme began with remarks by Malone, followed by an interactive discussion with corporate members and members of Mumbai’s diplomatic community.

Malone started the discussion by noting how North Korea and South Korea had diverged from the end of the Korean War – with South Korea having now become a rich, post-modern society with a GDP per capita of nearly $30,000, emphasizing that the leadership of either country had followed different tracks with different objectives since then.

Tracing the roots of North Korea’s nuclear program, Malone detailed how the regime had realized fairly early on (as early as the 1950s) the need to develop autonomous capacity for a nuclear program in order to stay in power. Over the years, several attempts have been made to restrict North Korea’s nuclear arsenal - from an agreed framework with the U.S. in the 1990s to the failed six party talks from 2003 onwards. As many as 20 different Security Council resolutions on North Korea have been signed from the mid-2000s onwards – yet none have been stringent enough to bring the program to a halt. Commenting on North Korea’s relationship with China, Malone remarked that while North Korea may have been acting with Chinese consent in the past, China seems to be as worried with the recent testing of missiles as other countries. Therefore, one cannot assume that North Korea is a Chinese proxy.  

Malone concluded the program with remarks about the dynamics between Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump, noting that while President Trump may seem unpredictable, he has a strong head for self-preservation and is constrained by the American population in Japan. All-out war between the two countries in the near future was not likely then.