The Williamsburg Conference 1997
Foreword
It is rare to know in advance when history will be made. As
a result the Williamsburg Conference normally focuses its
discussions on developments in Asia and U.S.-Asian relations
during the past year. In 1997, however, participants looked
ahead to a major turning point in the region: the reversion
of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty. Hong Kong provided the
appropriate and dramatic setting for our talks. The end of
British rule has meaning not only for Hong Kong, but also
for China and the rest of Asia. With Macao's reversion slated
for 1999, centuries of colonialism in the region will end,
setting the stage for a new era in Asian affairs.
The return of Hong Kong will take place against the backdrop
of continued rapid change in China. Maintaining high levels
of growth without further widening economic disparities among
its population and confirming the succession to Deng Xiaoping
are just two of the challenges facing Beijing's leadership.
How such problems are dealt with will have an impact on the
future of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. But
we should also keep in mind, as Chief Secretary Anson Chan
noted in her keynote address at the conference, that Hong
Kong's success will depend upon the determination of this
community to maintain its way of life. Differing agendas aside,
the close interrelationship between the economies of Hong
Kong and China led to a consensus among participants on the
importance of the United States renewing most-favored-nation
status for China.
The informal atmosphere at the Williamsburg Conference allowed
participants to be equally candid in treating other issues
of the day, including the potential for reconciliation in
South Asia, responses to the famine in North Korea, political
tensions resulting from the pressures of globalization on
the economies of Southeast Asia, and Japanese economic reform.
China's evolving role as a world power led participants to
call once again for firm U.S. presidential leadership on U.S.-China
relations.
In the absence of Cy Vance, it was my privilege and pleasure
to co-convene this year's conference with Tommy Koh and Yoshio
Okawara. They guided the discussions with their usual fairness
and insight, borne along on flows of lively and informed commentary
from a particularly talented roster of participants. I join
them in thanking Marshall Bouton, executive vice president
of the Asia Society, and Kate Simpson, program associate,
for their superb organization of the meeting. Mary-Hart Bartley
and Jennifer Martin provided first-rate administrative assistance.
Kevin Quigley, newly appointed vice president for Contemporary
Affairs and Corporate Programs, lent key support on the ground.
Asia Society regional center director Richard Mueller, assistant
director Dede Huang, and the able staff of the Society's Hong
Kong Center were important contributors to the success of
the conference. We sincerely thank the conference funders,
whose names appear at the end of this report. With their support
the Williamsburg tradition continues, as does the quality
and relevance of this oldest of trans-Pacific dialogues.
Nicholas Platt
President, Asia Society
Keynote Address
Hong Kong: A City of Opportunity
The Honorable Mrs. Anson Chan, CBE, JP
I am delighted to be here this evening and wish to warmly
congratulate you on two accounts. Firstly, on your excellent
choice of venue and secondly, on the Conference attaining
its silver anniversary.
I am very honored indeed to have this opportunity to address
such a distinguished and influential audience at this important
juncture in Hong Kong's history. And I am also very pleased
that you will have an opportunity to see for yourselves how
we are preparing for the change in sovereignty in just 45
days from now.
Before I embark on my speech proper, I should like to pay
a personal tribute to the group of Asian and American leaders
who first launched this Conference. As you know, they met
way back in 1971 in Williamsburg, Virginia to discuss and
promote the Asian/American relationship. Since then, discussions
have continued to thrive and have generated much interest
in the two communities. The active encouragement to develop
fresh thinking, taking due account of the many different views
and perspectives, has greatly enhanced the value of the Conference,
and I trust that this valuable process will continue in Hong
Kong over the next few days.
You come to Hong Kong at a fascinating and significant time
in our history. In a little over six weeks, China will resume
sovereignty over Hong Kong. What does that mean? In simplistic
terms, the Hong Kong flag will change alongside that signifying
our sovereign power. Some of the more obvious changes have
already taken place. For example, new coins and definitive
stamps have already been issued, although you might for the
time being still find a coin picturing the Queen's head in
your pocket. But on a more serious note, we will for the first
time in modern history have a Hong Kong person in charge of
our affairs, Mr. Tung Chee-hwa. He is a well-respected figure
in the community and is totally committed to implementing
the unique concept of "one country, two systems"
on which our future is based.
What is Hong Kong today? Well, we are rated by the U.S. Heritage
Foundation as the freest economy in the world. In fact, we
have proudly held this position for the past three years.
The World Economic Forum has ranked Hong Kong as the second
most competitive economy in the world. Our GDP per capita
stands at US$24,500, amongst the highest in Asia. Hong Kong
is small but global. Let me quote a few examples. We have
a population of 6.3 million people, a tiny 0.1 percent of
the world's total, and yet we generate 3.6 percent of total
world trade, and we are the eighth-largest trading entity
in the world. Our total GDP is US$155 billion, a mere 0.5
percent of the world's total, and yet the external transactions
of our banking sector are the fifth largest in the world;
the average daily turnover of our foreign exchange market
is the fifth largest in the world; and the market capitalization
of our stock market is the seventh highest in the world.
These impressive facts demonstrate that Hong Kong is a modern,
dynamic, and successful community. Asia is generally seen
by most commentators as the economic powerhouse for the global
economy in the next century. The World Bank has estimated
that taken together Asian economies can be expected to surpass
those of Europe or North America by 2010. Hong Kong, as a
leading city in Asia, is well positioned to take advantage
of and contribute to the realization of this goal.
As Michael Enright and his co-authors make clear in their
recent book, The Hong Kong Advantage<D>, Hong Kong provides
a wide range of business-related services, not just for China
but for the entire Asian region. As a result, it has earned
a well-justified reputation as the premier center for intra-Asian
trade and investment.
Our buoyant economy, which has seen average real annual growth
in GDP of 6 percent between 196575, 8.5 percent in the following
decade, and 6.5 percent since 1985, has enabled us to divert
substantial resources into improving our social environment.
Education now accounts for a large portion of the government's
total budget. In 199798, our total expenditure on education
will exceed HK$45 billion, up 7.7 percent in real terms over
last year. Over 21 percent of recurrent public expenditure
goes to education. I believe this is money well spent, for
if Hong Kong is to continue to be successful then we need
a well-educated workforce. A similarly impressive story can
be told on the welfare front. Expenditure on welfare has increased
by 88 percent in real terms over the past five years and will
rise by a further 9 percent this year to HK$21.2 billion.
We are also proud of our medical and health services. We enjoy
one of the lowest infant mortality rates and longest life
expectancy rates anywhere in the world.
Despite all these successes, we realize that we cannot stand
still. We have to continue to invest in our future, not only
by providing resources for our human infrastructure but also
by developing our physical infrastructure. A few examples:
we are building a new airport which is initially designed
to handle up to 35 million passengers and 3 million tons of
cargo a year. This will open in April next year, and I very
much hope that when you next travel to Hong Kong you will
be able to enjoy the new facilities. Many of the projects
associated with the airport have already come on stream, and
you may have seen media reports on the opening of the Lantau
Link, the world's largest suspension road and rail bridge,
last month. We are also embarking on a series of comprehensive
improvements under the Railway Development Strategy, massive
reclamation schemes to form new land for development, expansion
of the container port to meet future demands, and expenditures
in excess of HK$3 billion on major environmental projects.
So in the sense of looking forward and continuing to make
economic and social progress, 1997 is not a factor.
On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong will become a Special Administrative
Region of the People's Republic of China. This is the result
of the Joint Declaration signed between Britain and China
in 1984. In reality, we have had 13 years in which to prepare
for the transition. In 1990, another milestone was reached
when the National People's Congress of China passed the Basic
Law, which will be Hong Kong's future constitution. Many in
Hong Kong provided detailed input to the drafting of this
law, which essentially provides for the continuation of Hong
Kong's capitalist system and way of life for at least the
next 50 years. Hong Kong will continue to enjoy a high degree
of autonomy with China's direct responsibility limited to
defense and foreign affairs.
Under the Basic Law
- the people of Hong Kong will run Hong Kong;
- the English common law system and independence of the judiciary will be retained;
- fundamental human rights will continue to be protected by law;
- the Hong Kong dollar will remain the sole legal tender, separate from the Chinese currency and backed by separate reserves;
- Hong Kong will continue to determine its own monetary, fiscal, and financial policies;
- our tax system will remain simple and predictable (the present low tax rates will be maintained and no taxes will be paid to China);
- Hong Kong's free-trade philosophy will continue;
- Hong Kong's civil servants (including non-Chinese) will continue to work and serve the community; and
- Hong Kong will continue to have autonomy in the conduct of its external commercial relations. This means, for example, that we shall continue to sit as a separate contracting party in the World Trade Organization and as a full member of the APEC forum.
I
shall spare you the details of all 160 articles in the Basic
Law. But suffice to say that the ingredients for Hong Kong's
continued prosperity and success have been clearly laid out
and essentially reflect maintenance of the existing situation,
or "business as usual."
The question that everyone asks is, "Will it all work?"
Will the provisions of the Joint Declaration and the Basic
Law be honored? Ultimately the only honest answer one can
give to that is, "Wait and see." But there are several
powerful reasons to be confident. First, it is in no one's
interests, least of all China's, that Hong Kong should fail.
For China, it is a matter of honor that Hong Kong thrive under
Chinese sovereignty as it has under the British. It is also
a matter in which China has a huge economic and commercial
investment. Second, we have now had nearly 15 years of solid
negotiations about our future, beginning with the Joint Declaration
and subsequently agreeing in detail how its provisions should
be implemented. It is hard to believe that hundreds of people
on both sides should have dedicated themselves to this work
if they had not been serious about honoring the agreements
that resulted from it. Third, the people who will be running
Hong Kong under the chief executive's leadership are the people
who are running it now. The civil service which I lead, my
senior secretaries, the police commissioner, the commissioner
against corruption, all of us will remain at our posts when
the flags change. We have been part of the negotiations, we
know what has been agreed and why; we know how to make it
work and we know that it can work. If I did not believe that
I would not be here now. Fourth, our economy is strong, and
there are formal constitutional guarantees that Hong Kong
will remain committed to a capitalist system, free trade,
and competitive markets. Hong Kong has enjoyed 35 years of
unbroken increases in real GDP. Our GDP is expected to rise
by 5.5 percent in real terms in 1997-98, with a forecast budget
surplus of US$4 billion. The Special Administrative Region
will start life with total government reserves equivalent
to US$42 billion, excluding foreign exchange reserves of over
US$65 billion.
This is not to say there are no problems. It will be obvious
to you from what you have read over the past months and what
you may have heard while you have been here that confidence
in the future is mixed. Broadly speaking, confidence about
the economic future is stronger than confidence about the
political future.
The first point to make is that this is not surprising. This
was always going to be the period of maximum uncertainty,
and let us not forget that "one country, two systems"
is an extraordinary concept. It is not easy for anyone who
has not lived with the idea for years to believe that it will
work. And even for those in Hong Kong who have been preparing
since 1984, it is still a very significant change that will
occur in six weeks' time.
On top of this general concern there are specific worries,
for example about the future shape of our civil liberties
legislation. The Chinese National People's Congress has struck
down certain elements of our existing legislation effective
July 1. The chief executive's office has completed a public
consultation exercise on the question of how to replace that
legislation. This whole episode has given rise to considerable
criticism in the overseas press and dire predictions about
our future. But it is important to note that here in Hong
Kong virtually every newspaper, numerous professional and
political groups, and many individual commentators spoke out
in defense of our civil liberties. It is very clear that the
Hong Kong community values its liberties and does not wish
them to be curtailed. That, to me, is a cause for optimism
about the future, because Hong Kong's success will depend
upon the determination of this community to maintain its way
of life.
As a result of the strong views expressed by the public, the
chief executive's office has just announced modifications
to the original proposals to amend our civil liberties laws.
These go some way toward addressing public concerns and are
a welcome move. The debate over civil liberties will undoubtedly
continue in the days and years ahead. I am sure the chief
executive's office and the future SAR government will continue
to take into account public views on this sensitive issue.
It is important to bear in mind that like so many places in
this region the Hong Kong community has handled massive changes
in recent yearseconomic and social transformation as well
as democratic political development. It has done so remarkably
smoothly, avoiding many of the more extreme problems that
so often accompany such transformationsocial and economic
dislocation, labor unrest, student unrest, political extremism,
and so on. We have a society in which debate and behavior,
though lively, are quite moderate. Our law and order situation
compares well with anywhere in the world.
On July 1 the present Legislative Council will be replaced
by the Provisional Legislature, which will exist for no longer
than one year until fresh elections can be conducted. New
electoral laws are currently being drawn up. The community
expects that the new laws will provide for open and fair elections
for a new legislature as soon as possible after the handover.
We need a credible legislature that enjoys the support of
the community and to whom the executive can be held accountable.
The community also values its large and lively press. There
have been many reports about self-censorship by the press.
That may well be happening in some areas, but those who practice
it are doing themselves a serious disservice in a place with
65 daily newspapers and numerous other sources of information.
Whatever self-censorship may or may not have taken place,
Hong Kong gets all the news there is out there and gets it
quickly. We are a place that needs and uses information as
an integral part of our business scene. We know that if we
become a sterile news environment we will become a sterile
environment for business services, which are our bread and
butter.
Those who count Hong Kong out reckon without the Hong Kong
community. Hong Kong people are a lively lot wedded to a dynamic
way of life. We in the civil service, our colleagues in the
police, all of us who help run Hong Kong today, believe strongly
in the open, clean, and efficient business and administrative
environment.
But ultimatelyas I said beforethe answer to all the questions
is "wait and see." Or, for those of you visiting,
come back and see whether Hong Kong is as great a place as
ever in 1998 and beyond.
Before closing, I should also like to briefly touch on the
Hong KongUnited States relationship, which is of particular
relevance to this gathering. America has a significant and
long-term interest in Hong Kong's continuing success. A few
facts:
- Over 1,200 American firms operate from here, with more than 450 running regional headquarters from Hong Kong;
- American firms have almost US$14 billion invested here;
- Hong Kong is the home of the largest overseas American Chamber of Commerce anywhere in the world;
- Hong Kong is a strong market for U.S. exports (US$14 billion last year);
- 37,000 American citizens live in Hong Kong;
- Hong Kong has the largest U.S. Consulate General in the world; and
- over 750,000 Americans travelled to Hong Kong last year.
All
of these factors lend credence to the notion that we have
an exceedingly close relationship. We also like to think that
we share certain key philosophies such as free trade and open
markets, the basic freedoms enjoyed in civilized societies,
the rule of law, and so forth.
But despite this there is, as always at this time of year,
a large black cloud on the horizon associated with the annual
debate on renewal of China's most-favored-nation status. As
I, and many of my colleagues in the civil service and indeed
friends in the private sector, have emphasized, withdrawal
of China's MFN trading status would be a telling blow to Hong
Kong's future economic prosperity and stability. We estimate
that up to 86,000 jobs would be lost in Hong Kong and our
GDP growth rate halved if this unfortunate scenario were to
materialize. This assessment excludes the impact of any retaliatory
action China might take. Clearly, all of this would be very
damaging indeed, especially coming at such a critical time
for Hong Kong. The general morale and resilience of the community
would be hurt, and our capacity to respond effectively to
challenges in other areas would be curtailed.
Naturally, we are concerned about any suggestions of extending
China's MFN status with conditions directly or implicitly
linked to what may or may not happen in Hong Kong after next
month. We value the continued demonstration of U.S. interest
in our transition. But basing China's MFN status upon Hong
Kong's transition would jeopardize rather than reinforce our
way of life. It would create uncertainty at exactly a time
when we need stability more than ever, and weaken us when
we need to be strong.
The people of Hong Kong, who have the most stake in China's
benign behavior toward Hong Kong, unanimously support the
unconditional renewal of China's MFN status. We hope any actions
or decisions taken by the United States will serve to strengthen
and not to undermine Hong Kong's stability. Because of the
importance of this decision to Hong Kong, the governor, the
financial secretary, and I have written to President Clinton,
Secretary of State Albright, and U.S. congressional leaders
to emphasize the importance of a full-year MFN extension to
us. We will continue to drive home Hong Kong's concerns until
the issue is settled.
Our transition is a long-term enterprise, and we need the
United States to stay engaged. The U.S.Hong Kong partnership
has developed over a long period of time and will, I believe,
continue to strengthen. I look forward to groups such as the
Williamsburg Conference and the Asia Society contributing
to this process.
To conclude, the one country, two systems concept which will
be applied to Hong Kong is unparalleled in history. There
are no signposts to follow. Nevertheless, I remain confident
that it can be made to work if the people of Hong Kong are
so minded. We shall no doubt encounter some difficulties along
the way but such is the resilience and determination (the
can-do factor) of the Hong Kong people that I'm sure Hong
Kong will continue to thrive into the next millennium. The
motto on Williamsburg's Coat of Arms, "states flourish
through virtue and toil," is a useful reminder of what
we must do in the months and years ahead.
I sincerely hope that you will all return to our city and
see for yourself how well we will fare under Chinese sovereignty.
But please do not wait another 20 years before returning the
Conference to Hong Kong!
I wish you all a productive and enjoyable stay in Hong Kong.
1997 Williamsburg Statement
Managing Change in Asia
This is a year of historic changes in Asia, perhaps the most
dramatic being Hong Kong's reversion to China. Other momentous
shifts are also under way in the region as it experiences
slower economic growth and grapples with a new set of social,
political, and security challenges.
To contribute to understanding of these changes and their
implications, the Asia Society brought together leaders in
government, business, academia, and journalism from 19 countries
and economies on both sides of the Pacific for the twenty-fifth
Williamsburg Conference. Held in Hong Kong on May 1619, 1997,
the conference was convened by Tommy Koh of Singapore, Yoshio
Okawara of Japan, and Nicholas Platt of the United States.
Participants examined five principal issues: Hong Kong and
its relationship with China, regional security, prospects
for reconciliation and growth in South Asia, Asia's economic
outlook, and U.S. policy toward Asia.
Conference participants were generally positive about Hong
Kong's prospects, provided the transition period is handled
with sensitivity by China, Hong Kong, and the international
community. There was a consensus that everyone involved wants
the "one country, two systems" policy to succeed:
China, which wants to show the worldincluding Taiwanthat the
concept works; Hong Kong, whose people are deeply attached
to their way of life; and other countries, which share strong
interests in the maintenance of Hong Kong's freedoms and prosperity.
Nonetheless, concerns are understandable; this formula has
never been implemented, and risks are inherent in a change
this momentous. Participants expressed hope that Hong Kong
would be allowed time to test the concept. In this context,
the renewal of China's most-favored-nation trade status was
seen as vital.
Participants heard that India and Pakistan now have what may
be their best opportunity since Partition to make genuine
progress toward peace. As demonstrated by the May 1997 summit
in the Maldives, both countries have new prime ministers who
are committed to reducing tensions. More important, the peoples
of both countriesinspired in part by East Asian economic successare
starting to demand a redirection of massive military resources
into economic development and social programs.
The conference concluded that Southeast Asia is entering a
new, more complex phase of economic growth, as the basis of
growth shifts from increased inputs to improved productivity.
In this stage of economic development, emphasis needs to be
placed on economic and political management, with greater
investment in infrastructure and education, including worker
retraining. Competitive pressures require that countries maintain
their commitment to economic liberalization, but governments
have a role to play in economic restructuring and in addressing
the human costs of economic globalization.
Conference participants reaffirmed their strong support for
the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, which
has a major role in promoting a rules-based, free-market system.
APEC's advocacy of "open regionalism" and its commitment
to liberalized trade and investment were also endorsed. The
conference called for the United States to maintain its commitment
to APEC and acknowledged that it is an invaluable forum for
informal talks among regional leaders. To fulfill its role
in driving regional cooperation, APEC must make concrete progress,
involve business in its policy making process, and mobilize
public support. It was noted that North America and Europe
remain the final destinations for the bulk of Asian exports,
despite a rise in intra-Asian trade.
Throughout the region, the rise of the middle class is creating
increasing pressure for governments to become more open and
responsive to their citizens. The conference concluded that
there is a growing urgency to ensure government accountability
and significantly reduce the gap between rich and poor, a
major concern across the region. Discussion of human rights
by nongovernmental organizations has encouraged positive changes
in the region. Some participants stressed the usefulness of
quiet diplomacy and a multilateral approach.
Critical developments are under way on the Korean peninsula.
The food crisis in North Korea has implications for the survival
of the Pyongyang regime, but it also gives the international
community an opportunity to engage the North and encourage
movement toward peace talks. The efforts of the Korean Peninsula
Energy Development Organization (KEDO) and the development
of other practical approaches were endorsed. Of the possible
scenarios for North Korea, the best may be gradual integration
with the South. Successfully managing this reunion would require
significant involvement of the international community.
Participants stressed the need for the United States to remain
engaged with the region, including the maintenance of a credible
military presence. This applies even if reunification of the
Korean peninsula is achieved. Concern was also voiced over
friction in U.S.-China relations. There was a consensus on
the need for President Bill Clinton to show strong leadership
on Asia policy. China could also do more to address American
concerns, for example, in managing human rights issues and
promoting military transparency.
Successful management of the momentous changes taking place
in Asia will require deft leadership buttressed by strong
popular support. The participants of the Williamsburg Conference
believe that their discussions revealed both the complexity
of these changes and the necessity of artfully managing them,
in Hong Kong, South Asia, the Korean peninsula, and elsewhere.
Hong Kong and China
Hong Kong's Transition
As this report is published, Hong Kong will be returning to
Chinese sovereignty. The ceremonies and celebrations of July
1, 1997, are only part of the picture, though. Participants
at the twenty-fifth Williamsburg Conference stressed that
Hong Kong's transition is a process, not an event. It should
be underscored that in this process the handover and its immediate
result (while foreign journalists are in town) is only one
chapter. With sensitive handling and careful support, there
are very good prospects that the process will be a success.
The generally positive outlook of the participants contrasted
with the often gloomy predictions about Hong Kong's future
that have appeared in the international media. Yet they had
reasons to be optimistic: the key players in the process have
a stake in making the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
(SAR) a success. It was China that coined the concept of "one
country, two systems" under which Hong Kong is to be
governed for the next 50 years. That may have been in response
to political and economic reality, yet China has much to gain
from making the idea work. At issue is not only preserving
Hong Kong's prosperity, though that will benefit China. China
also hopes a successfully reintegrated Hong Kong can serve
as a model for reunification with Taiwan, as the chief executive
of the SAR, Tung Chee-hwa, told the Asia Society's annual
dinner audience on the eve of the conference.
For their part, the people of Hong Kong are deeply attached
to their way of lifeincluding their civil liberties, rule
of law, and independent judiciary. There is some apprehension
about the continuation of these institutions in the minds
of most Hong Kong residents. No one should underestimate their
role in preserving the economic and political freedoms guaranteed
by the Joint Declaration and Basic Law and essential to Hong
Kong's continued success.
Other countries and economies also have a strong stake in
a stable transition and Hong Kong's continued prosperity.
Taiwan has extensive economic interests in Hong Kong and southern
China. These interests will remain a considerable force in
preserving a pragmatic attitude toward Hong Kong, even if
Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
comes to power. The United States has a significant, long-term
interest in the success of Hong Kong, which is home to 37,000
American expatriates. More than 1,200 U.S. firms operate in
Hong Kong, including 450 that use it as their regional headquarters.
The American people are keenly interested in seeing Hong Kong's
freedoms preserved.
The "one country, two systems" formula has never
been tested, and uncertainty is intrinsic in such a historic
transition. Most risks were seen to be on the political front.
Hong Kong's economic integration with China has already been
largely accomplished over the past decade, and its role as
provider of financial services and management expertise for
China is expected to keep growing along with the Chinese economy,
even with the increasing importance of Shanghai. With the
seventh-largest stock market in the world, Hong Kong is a
logical place to list the increasing number of Chinese state-owned
enterprises expected to be brought to market as part of China's
economic reforms. Hong Kong continues to make substantial
investments in infrastructure and education that should encourage
long-term growth. The rise of the service sectorwhich now
represents 80 percent of the economyled to discussion of whether
Hong Kong needs an industrial policy. Certainly, Hong Kong
needs to continue broadening its already considerable global
economic presence to compete in an increasingly global economy,
but it appears well placed to do so.
Nonetheless, worries about the transition are understandable.
Participants stressed the importance of preserving the rule
of law in Hong Kong and expressed concern over the continued
free flow of information amid reports of press self-censorship.
Academic freedom is also a concern. China has said it will
not tolerate advocacy of Taiwan or Tibet independencewould
this rule out exploration of these topics in scholarly papers
or debate? (Chinese participants rejected the idea that the
"one country two systems" concept could be applied
in Tibet or Xinjiang, saying the historical context was different.)
And though Beijing pledges not to interfere in Hong Kong's
affairs, can it prevent lower-level interference and resist
pressure from Chinese citizens or interests to allow more
access to Hong Kong or divert Hong Kong revenues or reserves
to the mainland?
The new SAR government will also have to act sensitively.
Participants expressed concern over Tung's failure to emphasize
the unique international dimensions of Hong Kong, which transcend
Chinese and Western ways, during his speech on amendments
to the colony's Public Order and Societies Ordinance. Despite
the pride of Hong Kong's 98 percent Chinese population in
its cultural heritage, not all are comfortable with the political
implications of the term "Chinese." The SAR government
will also have some bread-and-butter issues to address, such
as the widening gap between rich and poor and property prices
that put home ownership increasingly out of the reach of the
middle class. Will mainland "red chip" companies
have to play by the same rules as everyone else?
The intense attention being given to Hong Kong's transition
heightens some of the risks. Participants expressed concern
that the U.S. Congress, influenced by the current wave of
anti-China sentiment and reacting to often superficial media
coverage of Hong Kong, could take precipitous and counterproductive
action. In this context, the unconditional renewal of China's
most-favored-nation trading status was strongly supported.
At the same time, Chinese overreaction to events on the ground
in Hong Kong was also seen as a risk. Participants urged all
parties to handle the transition with sensitivity, and give
the people of Hong Kong and their new administration a chance
to prove that they can make the SAR work.
China and the United States
The relationship between China and the United States is of
vital importance, not only to Hong Kong but to the entire
Asia-Pacific region and to the economies of both countries.
Participants expressed concern over the apparently troubled
nature of the relationship. They recognized that while there
were some underlying reasons for concern on both sides, strong
U.S. presidential leadership on China could help create a
better atmosphere for improving relations.
With the cold war over and the domestic economy booming, the
American public is probably less interested in foreign affairs
now than at any time since the end of World War II. Congress
reflects this inward focus. The administration, tainted by
the controversy over Asian donations to the Democratic Party,
appears reluctant to speak out too loudly about the importance
of good relations with China. As a result, U.S. China policy
is being shaped, on one hand, by those who fear China's emergence
as a new superpower, and on the other, by those who want to
make China's human rights performance the center of Sino-American
relations.
The international community has some legitimate concerns about
China, which China itself could do more to address. It is
a rising power, not a status quo power, and just how it is
going to fit into the international system is not yet clear.
In the past few years, incidents in the South China Sea have
raised concerns about China's regional ambitions. Chinese
officials say the country has no expansionist plans and that
the country's armed forces are much weaker than outsiders
estimate, but they have not shown any of the transparency
that could build confidence. Alleged Chinese weapons sales
to Iran and Pakistan, among other factors, have also disturbed
the United States.
China's Future
Domestic developments in China, more than international ones,
will probably be key in determining the country's future directionand
by extension the future of Hong Kong. The conference heard
that among those developments will be the way China addresses
growing economic disparities, both among social classes and
between the coastal and interior provinces. With central-government
revenues having slipped to as low as 3 percent of gross domestic
product (GDP), one academic estimated, decentralization may
have gone too far. High politics will also play a role, with
China facing another succession a few years down the road.
Whereas late patriarch Deng Xiaoping had the stature to designate
Communist Party General Secretary Jiang Zemin as the core
of the new leadership, Jiang will not have that same authority
when his term as president expires.
China's impressive economic growth continues at 910 percent
a year, and from official figures at least, inflation appears
to be under control. There is concern, though, about the massive
debts of state-owned enterprises to state banks and other
state-owned enterprises, which by one estimate total as much
as $600 billion. China seems to be moving in the right direction
on state-owned-enterprise reform: it plans to preserve the
1,000 largest and turn over the others to market forces, a
step that will lead many to close, consolidate, or merge.
But the behemoths still in state hands will continue to create
a heavy drain on state resources for the foreseeable future.
Participants recognized, though, that without a nationwide
socioeconomic safety net it would be hard for China to move
too much faster in its state-owned-enterprise reform. Developing
such a safety net would also help limit the destabilizing
effect of China's growing "floating population"
of some 110 million migrant workers.
Security and Political Stability
South Asia: An Opportunity for Peace
In one of the most striking aspects of the conference, participants
heard that India and Pakistan have what may be their best
chance since Partition to make substantial progress toward
peace. New political leadership, a changing geostrategic context,
and most important an evolution of public opinion provided
a window of opportunity for a dramatic reduction of tension.
Some participants had arrived in Hong Kong directly from the
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit in
the Maldives, and they brought an optimistic message. In Male,
the new premiers of India and Pakistan, Inder Kumar Gujral
and Nawaz Sharif, respectively, demonstrated sincere willingness
to make progress. Key is the seeming acknowledgment by the
two governments that the Kashmir issuethough it must remain
on the agendawill not be solved overnight. As a result, the
two countries are looking for ways to make progress on other
fronts, progress that could produce economic benefits and
build confidence. Participants welcomed this approach, though
they expressed hope that Pakistan would nonetheless step up
its efforts to curb incursions by militants into Kashmir,
and India draw down its troop presence.
Gujral may not have received as big an electoral mandate as
Sharif, but peace has an increasingly powerful domestic constituency.
After 50 years of independence, citizens of India and Pakistan
are asking why they lag so far behind Singapore, Malaysia,
and other East Asian countries. Indeed, many statistics indicate
that South Asia, with 500 million people living below the
poverty line, is even worse off than sub-Saharan Africa. The
arrival of satellite television, as well as increased foreign
travel, has helped drive home to South Asians the message
that they are lagging behind not only the West, but also the
East.
There is a growing recognition in South Asia that three wars
and massive military expenditures are largely to blame for
the situation. Indians and Pakistanis are starting to demand
that the money being spent on tanks and fighter-bombers be
channeled instead into education and social programs. Leading
figures also see economic benefits to be reaped from jointly
piping natural gas from Central Asia, and from building highway
and rail links to open up trade. They would like to see investment
from East Asia in these projects. This fledgling, positive
trend needs to be reinforced by regular meetings of top leaders,
as well as unofficial exchanges between groups and individuals.
The end of the cold war, which diminished tensions between
India's and Pakistan's respective allies, helped open the
door to progress. South Asian governments would like to see
the United States and others encourage the peace process,
but with gentle, behind-the-scenes diplomacy rather than public
pressure. The conference heard that there is a growing consensus
in Washington that South Asia policy should no longer be driven
exclusively by the nuclear nonproliferation issue but should
also support other ways to reduce tension.
North Korea: Handle with Care
North Korea has been called the powder keg of Asia. The food
crisis and the defection of party ideologue Hwang Jang Yop
have highlighted the regime's weaknesses, and the situation
remains volatile. The international community needs to engage
North Korea but must act with care to encourage those involved
to move in the right direction.
The conference heard five possible scenarios for North Korea,
with the most likely thought to involve change: either the
Pyongyang regime eases its hard-line policies, or it collapses.
Collapse could be violent, possibly involving military action
against the South. The most desirable scenario was seen as
gradual internal reform and integration with the South, a
process that would demand engagement and support from the
international community.
A look at North Korean television illustrates the dilemma
facing the international community. One broadcast shows scenes
of flood-stricken farmland and hungry peasants, whereas the
next conveys images of missiles and well-fed troops on parade.
There was a consensus at the conference that the food crisis
was real, though estimates of its severity vary. Responding
to it gives the West one of its few ways to engage North Korea.
Denying it could mean the rejection of humanitarian concerns.
Furthermore, China might be compelled to intervene as a result
of the collapse and instability that may come of famine. But
concerns remain about aid, particularly fuel, being channeled
to the armed forces and thus propping up the regime. Participants
did not reach a consensus on the best approach, but the United
States favors making aid incremental and using it to encourage
Pyongyang to join peace talks with South Korea, the United
States, and China.
Participants noted the success of the Korean Peninsula Energy
Development Organization, the Japan-South Korea-U.S.-led mechanism
in which the European Union is a full partner and to which
several other countries give substantial support. KEDO is
providing North Korea with fuel and light-water nuclear reactorsless
susceptible to use in bomb makingin return for a freeze in
North Korea's existing nuclear program. There was even a proposal
to set up a similar multilateral initiative to channel food
aid to the North.
The defection of Hwang Jang Yop, the architect of North Korea's
guiding juche (self-reliance) philosophy, was described as
a serious psychological blow to Pyongyang but not necessarily
a sign of the regime's imminent demise. Hwang was an ideologue
and not one of the top figures in the power apparatus. The
motives for his sensational defection were still being examined
in Seoul. On the South Korean side, the economic slowdown
has focused attention on the massive costs that would be associated
with reunification, but South Koreans' fundamental desire
for reunification has not changed.
The Role of the United States
Even if peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula is
eventually achieved, it will be important for the United States
to continue to be the strong military presence in Asia that
has helped safeguard the region's prosperity, many participants
said. It was recognized that reunification could spur calls
from some segments of the public in Korea and Japanparticularly
on Okinawafor American troops to be withdrawn. Yet the United
States remains firmly committed to the maintenance of a credible
military presence in Asia, currently around the 100,000-troops
level. Reunification would allow some redeployment of troops
out of Korea and possibly reductions in Japan, but the situation
at the timeincluding the comportment of Chinawould determine
whether those countries wanted a drawdown.
It is common to hear that "the United States doesn't
have an Asia policy." But supporters of the Clinton administration
say it does indeed have a clear policy, and one that differs
markedly from the approach of the Bush administration. Instead
of focusing exclusively on bilateral security treaties, the
United States is encouraging the building of what it calls
a "Pacific Community," underpinned by multilateral
ties. To this end, it is encouraging the development of regional
organizations such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which
provides a mechanism for talking about security issues, and
the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.
The U.S.-Japan relationship was not discussed nearly as extensively
as in previous years, which reflects the relatively good state
of this crucial bilateral relationship. In the past two years,
in part because of Japan's economic problems, American concerns
over the trade imbalance have diminished. At the same time,
the two countries reinforced their security relationship with
the April 1996 security communiqué. Nonetheless, a warning
was issued against complacency, with tensions over trade liable
to reemerge unless progress continues to be made.
Pressures for Change in Southeast Asia
The rapid economic growth that has transformed much of East
and Southeast Asia has also spawned some political trends
that cut across national boundaries. Political and economic
trends can be contradictory, explaining tensions seen today
in these countries.
For the most part, the rapid growth of the 1970s and 80s was
produced by capitalism led by the military, the bureaucracy,
and ruling party elites. Such growth greatly strengthened
these economies, and imbued the leaders of these states with
the confidence to assert the rightness of their views on the
world stage, giving rise to the "Asian values" debate.
Economic growth has also produced societies that are far more
complex, characterized in particular by a rising middle class.
The intelligentsia, the press, student groupsall are clamoring
for a greater role in society, and for more open, responsive
governments. Generally better educated than their parents,
the new middle class is not willing to simply trade political
freedoms for economic benefits. Though they tend to be nationalistic,
the Asian middle classes are closer than their governments
to the political values of the West. Businesspeople, also,
are more independent than before, and more skeptical of bureaucrats'
ability to guide them in a global economy. With these growing
trends, change or conflict is inevitable.
South Korea and Taiwan have accepted change and adopted democratic
systems. But in much of Southeast Asia, participatory government
is still a work-in-progress. The conference discussed the
notable situation in Indonesia, where large numbers of political
and ethnic clashes have occurred in the past year. While this
may be attributable in part to greater opennessIndonesian
soldiers no longer shoot demonstratorsother factors are clearly
in play. Official corruption is a mounting source of popular
anger. Some conference participants said they believe that
corruption in Indonesia, which used to mainly consist of skimming
off the top, is now occurring on a scale that produces some
serious economic inefficiencies and distorts the distribution
of resources. But outlets for public expression of dissatisfaction
are limited: the most prominent opposition figure, Megawati
Sukarnoputri, daughter of the late President Sukarno, was
ousted as head of her political party in 1996. Public dissatisfaction
has also fueled the rise of Islamic movements that some participants
described as "fundamentalist," though others stressed
that Islam in Southeast Asia is generally very tolerant. These
sources of tension and instability are of serious concern
because Asia's longest-serving ruler, President Suharto, is
now 76, and the issue of who or even what system will succeed
him remains a big question mark.
Some participants, pointing to the perceived political turmoil
in Taiwan and South Korea, suggested that democracy is a luxury
that developing and industrializing countries cannot afford.
Others disagreed, describing democracy as the glue that holds
together a country as diverse as India by giving disparate
groups a say in government. Similarly, democratization in
Taiwan has helped defuse tension between ethnic Taiwanese
and the mainland immigrants who dominate the ruling Kuomintang,
thus enhancing stability. Indeed, wider participation by the
citizenry could be an effective tool to ensure open, accountable
governments in Southeast Asia and to minimize corruption.
It could also push governments to redress the income disparities
that are of growing concern.
The attention given to human rights and environmental issues
by nongovernmental organizations and Western governments was
seen as useful in encouraging progress on those fronts. Many
Asian participants said that quiet diplomacy was much more
effective than public hectoring and sanctions, which tend
to produce a nationalist backlash. Western activists also
supported quiet diplomacy, but said it was most efficient
if backed by the possibility of stronger action.
In some ways, Beijing and Taipei appear to be on a collision
course. But careful handling can make that collision less
likely. With its sovereignty over Hong Kong restored, Beijing
will be focusing on reunification with Taiwan. At the same
time, the political reforms in Taiwan, which were highlighted
by the direct election of President Lee Teng-hui last year,
may also have paved the way for the Kuomintang, which has
ruled Taiwan for half a century, to lose power to the pro-independence
Democratic Progressive Party when President Lee's term expires
in 2001. Widening economic exchanges between China and Taiwan
have encouraged the development of a powerful constituency
for stable cross-strait relationsincluding many businesspeople
who support the DPP. They could encourage the DPP to take
a pragmatic approach to relations with Beijing, although,
as one participant said, Beijing's hostility toward Lee, who
has skillfully skirted the independence issue, could discourage
a pragmatic approach.
The United States, ASEAN, and Burma: Agreeing to Disagree
A divide was audible on this topic: many American participants
said "Burma" and most Asians, "Myanmar."
ASEAN states for the most part remain committed to "constructive
engagement" with Burma. The Americans have imposed sanctions,
saying that engagement is not workingBurma's ruling junta
has only intensified its crackdown on Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition
National League for Democracy. (American oil companies, in
contrast, tend to take the view that sanctions do not work).
But Americans and Asians agreed that neither side should treat
the issue of Burma's admission to ASEAN in July as a litmus
test of U.S.-ASEAN relations. They should continue to build
their relationship on other fronts.
Cambodia, which will also gain entrance to ASEAN this year,
was also discussed. Its neighbors are not the only ones who
would like to see a stable and open Cambodiathe situation
in Cambodia is also a test of the effectiveness of United
Nations peacekeeping. The $2 billion, 19921994 UN peace effort
in Cambodia was by no means an unqualified success, the conference
heard. The UN did not force the other armies to disarm after
the Khmer Rouge refused to lay down their arms, and as a result
much of the apparatus of the formerly communist Cambodian
People's Party (CPP) government remained in place. Thus the
royalist Funcinpec Party, despite its election victory, had
little choice but to form a coalition government with the
CPP. This coalition has been fraught with dangerous tensions
between the two prime ministers, as well as between Phnom
Penh and the provinces, which are largely controlled by the
CPP. Of most concern, CPP dominance of the state security
apparatus raises the question of whether the next elections
can be free and fair.
Asian Economies: The Next Step
Management, Not Miracles
Is the East Asian "economic miracle" over? The answer
participants got was "yes and no." Yes, because
the region is entering a new and more challenging phase of
development; no, because the factors are present for growth
to continue. As the region moves on to this next stage sound
economic and political management will be critical.
The first stage of East Asia's rapid economic growth was built
largely on cheap labor. With that advantage shrinking, and
globalization exposing the region to greater competition,
the next stage requires economic restructuring. Growth needs
to be based on improved productivity, not just on increased
inputs such as labor and capital.
The free-market system has been highly efficient in allocating
resources in economies such as Hong Kong. Even for countries
such as South Korea with a record of successful state-led
capitalism, continued economic liberalization is seen as vital.
As the world economy becomes more global, the rigors of the
free market drive economies to adapt and become more competitive.
Nonetheless, conference participants felt that governments
also had a role to play in enhancing economic competitiveness
and addressing the human costs of economic change.
As they move to the next stage of development, Asian economies
need to make massive investments in infrastructure. Governments
can guide this process, but participants were interested in
ways to keep increasing the involvement of the private sector
in major infrastructure projects. Governments also need to
promote, in partnership with the private sector, education
and job training, including the difficult task of retraining
workers who lose their jobs because of economic restructuring.
Political management of the changes associated with growthincluding
ethnic and regional economic disparities, the increasing cost
of urban housing and other essentials, and the rising expectations
of the populationwas seen as important to maintaining momentum.
Globalization poses some concrete challenges to Asia. For
example, in the early 1990s, 19 percent of North American
textile goods came from the countries that now form the North
American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). Last year that number had
risen to 40 percent. Electronic goods look likely to follow
the same pattern. Protectionism was not seen as a viable alternative,
however, as it would just result in countries being left behind
economically.
Participants were very positive about the region's economic
prospects. Already, a number of non-Japanese, Asian multinational
companies have emerged, such as Samsung and Daewoo in South
Korea and the C.P. Group in Thailand, demonstrating the region's
ability to compete in the international economic arena. Many
of the factors that spurred rapid growth in the 1970s and
80s, including high savings rates, remain in place. Businesspeople
continue to remain focused on striking the kinds of deals
that promote rapid growth. Levels of management and technological
expertise continue to rise. Participants agreed that it was
important for Asian economies to keep increasing their investment
in research and development, though some stressed that goals
should be appropriate: Hong Kong, for example, with an economy
built largely on small and mid-sized trading companies, might
be better off refining "process technology"the science
of getting goods to marketrather than making massive investments
in product technology.
Japan's Turning Point
The Japanese economy, which accounts for two-thirds of Asia's
economic output, is a matter of intense interest to the rest
of the region. Conference participants were pleased to hear
their Japanese colleagues say that psychologically, at least,
Japanese believe that their country's economy has hit bottom
and is starting to rise. Some statistics support that optimistic
outlook: household income is rising, stock prices of key corporations
are high, unemployment is starting to drop. GDP grew 3.6 percent
in 1996.
This time, participants heard, Japan really is serious about
economic reform. The burst of the 1980s bubble economy and
the subsequent rise of the U.S. economy convinced many Japanese
that the "Japan, Inc." model, with its tight interaction
between government bureaucrats and giant corporations, was
no longer the best model to compete in the globalized world
economy. Broad popular support for reform was demonstrated
by the October 1996 parliamentary elections, which brought
Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to power.
Hashimoto announced plans for reform in six broad areas: bureaucracy,
national budget, economic structure, financial industry, social
welfare, and education system. That he will be able to deliver
substantial reform on all fronts is unlikely: bureaucratic
resistance is inevitable. But, the conference heard, prospects
were good for the area of reform that might have the biggest
impact on the world economy: Hashimoto's "Big Bang"
package of financial deregulation.
Due to be implemented progressively by 2001, measures include
liberalization of international financial transactions; lowering
of the barriers among long-term-credit banks, commercial banks,
securities firms, and insurance companies; liberalization
of pension fund and investment fund management; and a restructuring
of the Bank of Japan to make it more independent from the
powerful Ministry of Finance. This last step was described
as likely to have a positive impact on the stability of international
financial markets.
Nonetheless, pitfalls remain. A spate of major bankruptcies
would give the Ministry of Finance an excuse to stonewall
on market deregulation. If reforms were perceived as a failure,
voters could react strongly against the government in the
next election. And before that, there lurks the danger that
Hashimoto's coalition could fracture over another issue, such
as the U.S. troop presence on Okinawa, which has been criticized
by Hashimoto's Socialist partners.
Certainly, no one should write off Japan. The Japanese management
model is still impressive, as was demonstrated late last year
when Toyota Motor Corp. bounced back to full production only
three days after a disastrous fire at one of its key subsidiary
suppliers. A number of major companies are well into restructuringgenerally
without layoffs. The weakness of the yen has been helping
to boost exports, aiding the recovery. What will the final
product look like, after Japan has reinvented its economy?
It is hard to say, but one participant predicted that it would
be neither traditionally Japanese nor fully Western, but something
uniquely in-between. Whatever the result, participants heard,
trade between Japan and the rest of Asia should continue to
increase. Japan does not favor closed regionalism.
APEC's Vital Role
The conference reaffirmed its strong support for the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation forum, which plays a major role in encouraging
a rules-based, open-market system in the region. It is proving
to be instrumental in liberalizing trade and investment in
the Asia-Pacific region, and heads of state and government
have come to value it highly for the opportunity it provides
for direct, often informal, contacts. Nonetheless, a participant
from the business community stressed that in order for APEC
to maintain credibility, it was important for it to demonstrate
some concrete successes each year. One such success would
be the creation of an APEC business visa, to allow freer movement
of businesspeople among APEC countries, said a business participant.
The momentum of liberalization should be maintained, he added,
by moving beyond trade into sectoral reforms. Another view
expressed was that future hosts of APEC need not be expected
to produce stunts or spectacles. The group has matured to
the point that its implementations are as important as its
innovations.
In fact, debate about APEC focused on whether its role should
be expanded beyond working on trade and investment liberalization,
and if so, how. A few participants saw "community building"
measures as the logical next step. In order to push intellectual
and societal structures to support trade liberalization, it
is important to encourage exchanges of ideas, technology,
and so forth across national borders, these participants said.
But more participants voiced the view that expanding APEC's
role, or for that matter its numbers, could stall progress.
They said that keeping APEC firmly focused on trade and investment
liberalization is the most effective way to achieve its goal
of promoting economic cooperation among the member countries.
It is also a useful, neutral forum for discussions among leaders.
Generally, there was broad agreement on the usefulness of
APEC, and the conference called for the United States to maintain
its commitment to the grouping. It was noted that the rise
in intra-Asian trade does not signal a diminution of the importance
of exchanges with the West. Expanded regional operations by
Japanese and other Asian companies have meant an increase
in the shipping of raw materials, components, and semi-manufactured
goods among Asian countries, but North America and Europe
remain the leading destinations for the finished products.
Conclusion
In the half-century between the British decolonization of
India and the final lowering of the Union Jack in Hong Kong,
Asia has transformed itself from an economic backwater to
one of the world's most dynamic regions. Now it is beginning
to translate that role into a more prominent place on the
world stage. As the events of 1997 demonstrate, though, Asia's
future is still taking shape. This is a time of tremendous
promise, but change also entails risk.
The future direction of China will be a major determining
force. Though that direction will be determined largely be
internal developments, the international community should
do what it can to promote a stable and prosperous China that
is soundly integrated into the international community, participants
said. Both the United States and China should work at improving
Sino-U.S. relations, seen as important to the stability and
prosperity of the wider region. The return of Hong Kong to
Chinese sovereignty underscores the reemergence of China,
powered by its awakened economy, as an international player.
By handling that transition well, it could do much to reassure
the international community of its good faith, and to overcome
the legacy of Tiananmen Square.
Change of governmentsand attitudesin South Asia may also present
the opportunity for a dramatic reduction of tension. The conference
hoped that India and Pakistan would seize the opportunity
to make a peace that would benefit the entire region. In North
Korea, a tragic food crisis has prompted one of the world's
most reclusive regimes to reach out. It has given the international
community a rare chance to engage Pyongyang and possibly help
steer the Korean crisis toward a peaceful solution. In Southeast
Asia, pressures for political change present potential instability,
but if skillfully handled they can translate into stronger,
more broadly based, civil societies in the long run.
Economically, Southeast Asia is maturing, and it has the ways
and means to move to the next stage of growth. If the Japanese
economy really is turning around, it will provide an important
boost. Asian governments and businesses nonetheless need to
be able to make some hard choices to restructure economies
to be competitive. Continued economic liberalization will
benefit the region as a whole, but it is also important to
ensure that the benefits of economic globalization are spread
widely and not permitted to contribute to the growing gap
between rich and poor, a concern that came up again and again
among conference participants.
With the region largely peaceful, markets surging in size
and trade and investment opening up, one participant said,
business is entering a "golden era" in Asia. Now
is the time to move beyond unbridled, single-minded pursuit
of growth, toward an emphasis on "institutional economics."
Governments must work increasingly on issues such as maintaining
social cohesion and creating strong societal institutions.
It is up to policymakers to ensure, through sensitive management
of change, that the golden era lasts.
Participants
AUSTRALIA
Hugh Morgan, Chief Executive Officer, Western Mining Corporation
Ltd.
CAMBODIA
Pok Marina, Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
and International Cooperation
CANADA
Howard Balloch, Ambassador to the People's Republic of China
Paul Evans, Professor of Political Science, University of
TorontoYork University
CHINA
Shen Dingli, Professor of International Relations, Fudan University
Wang Shaoguang, Associate Professor of Political Science,
Yale University
Zhang Wenpu, Vice President, Chinese People's Institute of
Foreign Affairs
Zhang Yunling, Director, Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies,
Institute of Japan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
HONG KONG
Ronnie Chan, Chairman, Hang Lung Development Company Ltd.
Nayan Chanda, Editor, Far Eastern Economic Review
Frank Ching, Senior Editor, Far Eastern Economic Review
Victor Fung, Chairman, Prudential Asia, Prudential Asia Capital
Limited
Yi-zheng Lian, Editor in Chief, Hong Kong Economic Journal
INDIA
Isher Judge Ahluwalia, Research Professor, Centre for Policy
Research
Shekhar Gupta, Chief Editor, Indian Express
INDONESIA
Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Head, Regional and International Affairs
Division, Center for Political and Regional Studies, Indonesian
Institute of Sciences (LIPI)
Adi Sasono, Chairman, Center for Information and Development
Studies
JAPAN
Yoichi Funabashi, Columnist and Chief Diplomatic Correspondent,
Asahi Shimbun
Toyoo Gyohten, President, Institute for International Monetary
Affairs
Kazutoshi Hasegawa, Advisor, Itochu Corporation
Kiyoaki Kikuchi, Senior Advisor, Matsushita Electric Industrial
Company
Yoshio Okawara, Executive Advisor, Keidanren
KOREA
Bang Sang-Hoon, Publisher, President and CEO, Chosun Ilbo
Han Sung-Joo, Professor of Political Science and Director,
Ilmin International Relations Institute, Korea University
Hyun Hong-Choo, Senior Partner, Kim and Chang
MALAYSIA
Hishammuddin Tun Hussein, Parliamentary Secretary, Ministry
of International Trade and Industry
NEW ZEALAND
Philip Burdon, Former Minister for Trade Negotiations
Phillip Gibson, Executive Director, Asia 2000 Foundation of
New Zealand
Richard Nottage, Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Trade
PAKISTAN
Shaharyar Khan, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General
for Rwanda
PHILIPPINES
Jesus Estanislao, President, University of Asia and the Pacific
Washington SyCip, Founder and Chairman, The SGV Group
RUSSIA
Igor Rogachev, Ambassador to the People's Republic of China
SINGAPORE
S.R. Nathan, Director, Institute of Strategic Studies
Tommy T.B. Koh, Executive Director, Asia-Europe Foundation
Lee Tsao Yuan, Director, Institute of Policy Studies
Zainul Abidin Rasheed, General Manager, NTUC (International)
Fairprice, NTUC Cooperative (Pte) Ltd.
TAIWAN
Douglas Tong Hsu, Chairman and CEO, Far Eastern Textile Ltd.
Hung-mao Tien, President, Institute for National Policy Research
THAILAND
Surin Pitsuwan, Member of Parliament
Vichit Suraphongchai, Member of and Advisor to the Board of
Directors, Bangkok Bank Public Company, Ltd.
UNITED STATES
Morton Abramowitz, President, Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace
Julia Chang Bloch, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
Marshall M. Bouton, Executive Vice President, Asia Society
Janet Clayton, Vice President, Los Angeles Times
John F. Imle, Jr., President, Unocal Corporation
Stuart Janney III, Chairman, Bessemer Trust Company
Sidney Jones, Executive Director, Human Rights WatchAsia
Robert Oxnam, President Emeritus, Asia Society
Maynard Parker, Editor, Newsweek
Nicholas Platt, President, Asia Society
Stanley Roth, Director of Research and Studies, United States
Institute of Peace
Robert C. Timpson, President, IBM Asia Pacific, IBM World
Trade Asia Corporation
VIETNAM
Dao Huy Ngoc, Director General, Institute for International
Relations
Conference Observers
John Brown, President, John Brown Ltd.
Ann Calkins, Vice President, External Relations, Asia Society
M. Rickcliffe Choate II, Managing Director, Interval International
Hahm Young Joon, Hong Kong Bureau Chief, Chosun Ilbo
Mikio Kato, Executive Director, International House of Japan
Vyacheslav Lukyanchuk, Consul, Consulate General of Russia
William McKeever, Director, Regional Center Coordination and
Asian Activities, Asia Society
Richard W. Mueller, Director, Asia Society Hong Kong Center
Cynthia Hazen Polsky
Leon Polsky, Judge, New York Court of Claims, Ret.
Kevin F.F. Quigley, Vice President, Contemporary Affairs and
Corporate Programs, Asia Society
Mohammad Karim Mohammad Raslan, Partner, M/s Raslan Loong,
Advocates and Solicitors
T.W. Shu, Chairman, The Ka Wah Bank Ltd.
Steven Strasser, Asia Editor, Newsweek
Song Yihan, President and CEO, The Ka Wah Bank Ltd.
Susy Wadsworth
Freda Wang, Chief Representative, Dow Jones and Co., Inc.,
Shanghai
Rapporteur
Andrew J. Sherry, Correspondent, Far Eastern Economic Review
Asia Society Staff
Mary-Hart Bartley, Executive Associate (New York)
Steve Chin, Intern (Hong Kong)
Catherine Han, Intern (Hong Kong)
Dede Huang, Assistant Director (Hong Kong)
Cai Jing, Membership Assistant (Hong Kong)
Stephanie Lawkins, Program and Membership Associate (Hong
Kong)
Li Ping Lo, Program Associate (Hong Kong)
Jennifer Martin, Administrative Associate (New York)
Kate Simpson, Program Associate (New York)
FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTORS
Bessemer Trust, NA
Dah Sing Financial Holdings Ltd.
Hang Lung Development Company Limited
IBM International Foundation
ITOCHU Corporation
Kansai Electric Power Company, Inc.
The Lee Foundation of Singapore
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd.
Mitsubishi Corporation
New World Development Company, Ltd.
The Ogasawara Foundation for the Promotion of Science and
Engineering
C.P. Pokphand Co., Ltd.
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited
Tokyo Electric Power Company, Inc.
Unocal Corporation
Hong Kong Trade Development Council
The Better Hong Kong Foundation
Vision 2047 Foundation