Burma's Generals Prepare to Hold First Election in 20 Years
Burma's military government has set Nov. 7 as the date for its much awaited general election, the first in 20 years, amid widespread doubts over its legitimacy. “The pre-election environment in Burma is dismal -- an estimated 2,000 political activists remain imprisoned, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is still under house arrest, Burma’s military leadership has made no effort to advance national reconciliation with democracy and minority groups, and the constitutional framework behind the elections automatically guarantees the military a quarter of the seats in parliament,” says Suzanne DiMaggio, Asia Society’s Director of Policy Studies. “This will not be a fair and inclusive election.”
“Over recent months, the E.U., the U.N., and the U.S. have been pressing the Burmese leadership to carry out credible elections. Even ASEAN, the 10-member regional group that counts Burma as a member, has issued uncharacteristically strong statements calling on the government to allow political opposition. But the ruling generals have made zero concessions.”
“Despite expectations of a seriously flawed election, some element of change is on the horizon. On paper, Burma’s new constitution outlines a transition to an elected, civilianized government, albeit one in which the military retains an important measure of control. If the generals begin to gradually shift leadership to a parliamentary government in the next few years and transfer meaningful power to civilian leaders, the door could open for political change. Additionally, as Burma’s current military leadership ages, it is preparing to pass the mantle of military command to a considerably younger set of leaders, with an age difference of some 20 years. The outcome of the election could, at a minimum, coincide with a new generation of military leaders. It remains to be seen whether this process will lead to fundamental change, or whether it will merely bring about the trappings of change with the next-generation military leadership in charge.”
“A widely perceived illegitimate election could be a setback for the Obama administration’s new policy of reengagement with Burma, which was announced in September 2009. It will dampen prospects for improving U.S.-Burma relations in the short term and it could lead to renewed pressure for tightening sanctions. Nevertheless, the U.S. would be well advised to take a long term view -- if it sets the bar too high at the outset, it could deny itself an effective role in helping to move Burma away from authoritarian rule and into the world community.”
Suzanne, who is based in New York, is Director of Asia Society’s Task Force on U.S. Policy toward Burma/Myanmar. More information is available at www.AsiaSociety.org/BurmaMyanmarReport