NEW YORK, November 12, 2008 - The escalation of violence and
religious extremism in Pakistan is “making [the country] ungovernable,"
according to a senior policy analyst from Lahore. The changing
demographic and massive “youth bulge” that Pakistan is experiencing is
in part responsible for the increased violence over the past decade,
which in turn has led to a shift in attention from welfare and
development to security.

During this time of shaky transition in Pakistan, Saeed Shafqat,
director of the Centre for Public Policy and Governance at Forman
Christian University, Lahore, predicts that Pakistanis will continue to
“struggle and oscillate between hope and despair” in the coming year.
In a conversation moderated by Asia Society President Emeritus Ambassador Nicholas Platt,
Shafqat discussed the emergence of Pakistani elites who "hold [socially
and politically] conservative values that depict authoritarian
tendencies rather than democratic [ones]."

Shafqat
laid out three possible outcomes for Pakistan in 2009. The first option
would be a “painful and slow transition to democracy” as political
parties and international actors proceed with caution and prudence. The
acceptance and acknowledgment of terrorism as an indigenous, internal
problem is seen as the first step in the right direction. A second,
more pessimistic route would see the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and
the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) resort to “1990s-like”
violence resulting in civil unrest. A third possibility would involve
the spread of the Taliban throughout the North-West Frontier Province
(NWFP), creating fear and prompting intervention form the outside
world.

Shafqat is optimistic, however, that
competent military influence and a proactive civil society will prevail
and help lead Pakistan's transition to democracy, though not without
some pressure from the international community.

Reported by Kyle Carroll

Excerpts:

On the status of inevitable IMF efforts in Pakistan: “Is the government negotiating skillfully enough?” (2 min., 32 sec.)

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On government development of educational policies to address religious
tolerance: “Unless we revive, energize, and renew public sector
education, we are in deep trouble.” (3 min., 16 sec.)

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Listen to the complete program (1 hr., 3 min.)

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