South Korea's Warship Mystery -- The China Angle

“Hard conclusive evidence as to the causes of the sinking of a South Korean ship has not yet emerged, but the preliminary finding of an ‘external explosion’ has speculation focused on a North Korean submarine attack. China could come under intense pressure to use its diplomatic influence, depending on the results of the investigation,” says John Delury, Associate Director of Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations. “If the outcome is ‘high probability’ of a North Korean torpedo but no incontrovertible evidence, Beijing is likely to once again ramp up efforts to restart the Six Party Talks. If demonstrable evidence of a torpedo is found, China will come under greater pressure to sanction Pyongyang further. If the evidence clears North Korea, Seoul will face criticism for a public relations failure, and the damage to inter-Korean relations will be lasting.”

John is in New York. To arrange an interview, contact the Asia Society communications department at 212-327-9271 or [email protected].