Leveraging China's Ties to North Korea and Iran
"Iran and North Korea stand at opposite ends of Asia and share little in
the way of history, culture, and ideology—not to mention religion.
And yet their diplomatic fates are now intertwined in the U.S.
government's nuclear nonproliferation efforts. China finds itself smack dab in the middle of this dance. Beijing's reward for going along with
harsher sanctions against its historic ally North Korea is increased pressure and expectations to sign off on 'crippling sanctions' against a major trading partner, Iran. In neither case, left to its own diplomatic devices, would China pursue a containment policy," says John Delury, Associate Director of Asia Society's Center on U.S.-China Relations.
"Beijing appears poised to sacrifice its core foreign policy strength—engagement. A 'united front' with the U.S. and its allies (in Northeast Asia and the Middle East) would be much more difficult and costly for China, since it—unlike the U.S.—has an actual relationship with these countries and therefore something to lose by cutting them off. And, it wouldn't necessarily solve the nuclear problem. Hardliners in Pyongyang, for example, have an even stronger argument for a 'nuclear deterrent' if the whole world is lined up against the DPRK. These regimes know how to muddle through isolation. What is really threatening, and potentially transformative, is greater integration with the international community."
"The U.S. is committed to a sanctions approach, and that may make sense and be politically necessary in the near-term from a U.S. perspective. But the long-term game is multifaceted engagement with the economies, societies, and governments of North Korea and Iran. And, the U.S. might be better served in the long run by letting China play that game to its strengths. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's upcoming state visit to Pyongyang is a major opportunity to coordinate the engagement side of the policy approach to North Korea. Rather than seek assurances that Premier Wen will promise tough sanctions, U.S. diplomats should be thinking creatively and concretely about how the U.S. can support a Chinese-brokered initiative to re-engage the DPRK."
John is in New York. To arrange an interview, please contact the Asia Society communications department at 212-327-9271 or [email protected].
harsher sanctions against its historic ally North Korea is increased pressure and expectations to sign off on 'crippling sanctions' against a major trading partner, Iran. In neither case, left to its own diplomatic devices, would China pursue a containment policy," says John Delury, Associate Director of Asia Society's Center on U.S.-China Relations.
"Beijing appears poised to sacrifice its core foreign policy strength—engagement. A 'united front' with the U.S. and its allies (in Northeast Asia and the Middle East) would be much more difficult and costly for China, since it—unlike the U.S.—has an actual relationship with these countries and therefore something to lose by cutting them off. And, it wouldn't necessarily solve the nuclear problem. Hardliners in Pyongyang, for example, have an even stronger argument for a 'nuclear deterrent' if the whole world is lined up against the DPRK. These regimes know how to muddle through isolation. What is really threatening, and potentially transformative, is greater integration with the international community."
"The U.S. is committed to a sanctions approach, and that may make sense and be politically necessary in the near-term from a U.S. perspective. But the long-term game is multifaceted engagement with the economies, societies, and governments of North Korea and Iran. And, the U.S. might be better served in the long run by letting China play that game to its strengths. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's upcoming state visit to Pyongyang is a major opportunity to coordinate the engagement side of the policy approach to North Korea. Rather than seek assurances that Premier Wen will promise tough sanctions, U.S. diplomats should be thinking creatively and concretely about how the U.S. can support a Chinese-brokered initiative to re-engage the DPRK."
John is in New York. To arrange an interview, please contact the Asia Society communications department at 212-327-9271 or [email protected].