Listen: Rudd on Why U.S.-China Relations Under Xi Jinping Won't Be 'Business as Usual' | Asia Society Skip to main content

Unsupported Browser Detected.
It seems the web browser you're using doesn't support some of the features of this site. For the best experience, we recommend using a modern browser that supports the features of this website. We recommend Google Chrome, Mozilla Firefox, or Microsoft Edge

  • Arts
    • Arts & Culture
      • Film
      • Literature
      • Performing Arts
    • Asia Society Museum
      • Visit
      • Exhibitions
      • Programs
      • Collection
      • Asia Society Triennial
      • The Asia Arts and Museum Network
      • Learn
    • Asia Arts Game Changer Awards
      • About
      • Honorees
      • Ceremonies
      • Photos
      • Support
    • Creative Voices of Muslim Asia
      • Resources
      • Exhibitions
      • Videos
  • Education
    • Chinese Language Learning
    • Global Education
    • Discover Asia
    • About
  • Policy
    • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Center for China Analysis
      • Topics
      • Countries & Regions
      • Publications
      • Initiatives
      • Watch & Listen
      • Events
      • About
      • Support Us
    • Center on U.S.-China Relations
      • Home
      • About
      • Projects
      • Events
      • Reports
      • COAL + ICE
    • ChinaFile
      • Reporting & Opinion
      • Conversation
      • Library
      • Multimedia
  • Initiatives
    • Arts
      • Arts & Museum Summit
      • Asia Arts Game Changer Awards
      • The Asia Arts & Museum Network
      • Creative Voices of Muslim Asia
      • U.S.-China Museum Summit
      • U.S.-Asia Entertainment Summit
    • Leadership
      • Asia Game Changer Awards
      • Asia 21 Next Generation Fellows
      • Diversity Leadership Initiatives
      • U.S.-China Dialogue
    • Policy
      • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Center on U.S.-China Relations
    • Sustainability
      • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Coal + Ice
  • Countries & Regions
    • Column One
      • Afghanistan
      • American Samoa
      • Armenia
      • Australia
      • Azerbaijan
      • Bahrain
      • Bangladesh
      • Bhutan
      • Brunei
      • Cambodia
      • Central Asia
      • China
      • Cook Islands
      • Cyprus
      • East Asia
      • East Timor
      • Fiji
      • French Polynesia
      • Georgia
      • Guam
    • Column Two
      • Hong Kong
      • India
      • Indonesia
      • Iran
      • Iraq
      • Israel
      • Japan
      • Jordan
      • Kazakhstan
      • Kiribati
      • Kuwait
      • Kyrgyzstan
      • Laos
      • Lebanon
      • Macau
      • Malaysia
      • Maldives
      • Marshall Islands
      • Micronesia
      • Mongolia
    • Column Three
      • Myanmar
      • Nauru
      • Nepal
      • New Caledonia
      • New Zealand
      • Niue
      • North Korea
      • Northern Marianas
      • Oceania
      • Oman
      • Pakistan
      • Palau
      • Palestine
      • Papua New Guinea
      • Philippines
      • Qatar
      • Samoa
      • Saudi Arabia
      • Singapore
      • Solomon Islands
    • Column Four
      • South Asia
      • Southeast Asia
      • South Korea
      • Sri Lanka
      • Syria
      • Taiwan
      • Tajikistan
      • Thailand
      • Tibet
      • Tokelau
      • Tonga
      • Turkey
      • Turkmenistan
      • Tuvalu
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Uzbekistan
      • Vanuatu
      • Vietnam
      • Wallis and Futuna
      • West Asia
      • Yemen
  • Current Affairs
    • Topics
      • Business
      • Climate Change
      • Governance
    • Programming
      • Beyond the Headlines
      • Business of Asia
    • Center on U.S.-China Relations
      • Home
      • About
      • Projects
      • Reports
      • Past Events
    • ChinaFile
      • Reporting & Opinion
      • Conversation
      • Library
      • Multimedia
  • Look & Listen
    • Asia Society Magazine
    • ChinaFile
    • Podcasts
    • Video Gallery
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
  • Visit
    • Visit Us
      • Hong Kong
      • New York
      • Texas
    • Global Network
      • Australia
      • France
      • India
      • Japan
      • Korea
      • Northern California
      • Philippines
      • Seattle
      • Southern California
      • Switzerland
      • Washington, D.C.
  • About
    • About Asia Society
    • Inclusion & Diversity
    • Background & History
    • Board of Trustees
    • Senior Leadership
    • Global Staff
    • Global Council
    • Careers
    • Interns and Volunteers
    • Financial Statements
    • For the Media
      • Press Releases
  • Support
    • The Campaign for Asia Society
    • Corporate Engagement
      • Business Council
      • Technology and Innovation Council
      • Global Talent and Diversity Council
      • Rising Executives Network
      • Enhancements to Membership
      • Corporate Membership
      • Global Corporate Leaders
    • Membership
    • Donate
    • Donor Privacy Statement
ASIABLOG
Subscribe
Search
  • Arts
    • Arts & Culture
      • Film
      • Literature
      • Performing Arts
    • Asia Society Museum
      • Visit
      • Exhibitions
      • Programs
      • Collection
      • Asia Society Triennial
      • The Asia Arts and Museum Network
      • Learn
    • Asia Arts Game Changer Awards
      • About
      • Honorees
      • Ceremonies
      • Photos
      • Support
    • Creative Voices of Muslim Asia
      • Resources
      • Exhibitions
      • Videos
  • Education
    • Chinese Language Learning
    • Global Education
    • Discover Asia
    • About
  • Policy
    • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Center for China Analysis
      • Topics
      • Countries & Regions
      • Publications
      • Initiatives
      • Watch & Listen
      • Events
      • About
      • Support Us
    • Center on U.S.-China Relations
      • Home
      • About
      • Projects
      • Events
      • Reports
      • COAL + ICE
    • ChinaFile
      • Reporting & Opinion
      • Conversation
      • Library
      • Multimedia
  • Initiatives
    • Arts
      • Arts & Museum Summit
      • Asia Arts Game Changer Awards
      • The Asia Arts & Museum Network
      • Creative Voices of Muslim Asia
      • U.S.-China Museum Summit
      • U.S.-Asia Entertainment Summit
    • Leadership
      • Asia Game Changer Awards
      • Asia 21 Next Generation Fellows
      • Diversity Leadership Initiatives
      • U.S.-China Dialogue
    • Policy
      • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Center on U.S.-China Relations
    • Sustainability
      • Asia Society Policy Institute
      • Coal + Ice
  • Countries & Regions
    • Column One
      • Afghanistan
      • American Samoa
      • Armenia
      • Australia
      • Azerbaijan
      • Bahrain
      • Bangladesh
      • Bhutan
      • Brunei
      • Cambodia
      • Central Asia
      • China
      • Cook Islands
      • Cyprus
      • East Asia
      • East Timor
      • Fiji
      • French Polynesia
      • Georgia
      • Guam
    • Column Two
      • Hong Kong
      • India
      • Indonesia
      • Iran
      • Iraq
      • Israel
      • Japan
      • Jordan
      • Kazakhstan
      • Kiribati
      • Kuwait
      • Kyrgyzstan
      • Laos
      • Lebanon
      • Macau
      • Malaysia
      • Maldives
      • Marshall Islands
      • Micronesia
      • Mongolia
    • Column Three
      • Myanmar
      • Nauru
      • Nepal
      • New Caledonia
      • New Zealand
      • Niue
      • North Korea
      • Northern Marianas
      • Oceania
      • Oman
      • Pakistan
      • Palau
      • Palestine
      • Papua New Guinea
      • Philippines
      • Qatar
      • Samoa
      • Saudi Arabia
      • Singapore
      • Solomon Islands
    • Column Four
      • South Asia
      • Southeast Asia
      • South Korea
      • Sri Lanka
      • Syria
      • Taiwan
      • Tajikistan
      • Thailand
      • Tibet
      • Tokelau
      • Tonga
      • Turkey
      • Turkmenistan
      • Tuvalu
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Uzbekistan
      • Vanuatu
      • Vietnam
      • Wallis and Futuna
      • West Asia
      • Yemen
  • Current Affairs
    • Topics
      • Business
      • Climate Change
      • Governance
    • Programming
      • Beyond the Headlines
      • Business of Asia
    • Center on U.S.-China Relations
      • Home
      • About
      • Projects
      • Reports
      • Past Events
    • ChinaFile
      • Reporting & Opinion
      • Conversation
      • Library
      • Multimedia
  • Look & Listen
    • Asia Society Magazine
    • ChinaFile
    • Podcasts
    • Video Gallery
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
  • Visit
    • Visit Us
      • Hong Kong
      • New York
      • Texas
    • Global Network
      • Australia
      • France
      • India
      • Japan
      • Korea
      • Northern California
      • Philippines
      • Seattle
      • Southern California
      • Switzerland
      • Washington, D.C.
  • About
    • About Asia Society
    • Inclusion & Diversity
    • Background & History
    • Board of Trustees
    • Senior Leadership
    • Global Staff
    • Global Council
    • Careers
    • Interns and Volunteers
    • Financial Statements
    • For the Media
      • Press Releases
  • Support
    • The Campaign for Asia Society
    • Corporate Engagement
      • Business Council
      • Technology and Innovation Council
      • Global Talent and Diversity Council
      • Rising Executives Network
      • Enhancements to Membership
      • Corporate Membership
      • Global Corporate Leaders
    • Membership
    • Donate
    • Donor Privacy Statement

Listen: Rudd on Why U.S.-China Relations Under Xi Jinping Won't Be 'Business as Usual'

May 7th, 2015


ASPI President Kevin Rudd speaks at Asia Society New York on May 4, 2015. (Elsa Ruiz/Asia Society)

Asia Society Policy Institute President Kevin Rudd recently completed a research project on the future of U.S.-China relations for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. In his report U.S.-China 21: The Future of U.S.-China Relations Under Xi Jinping, Rudd argues that Washington and Beijing can manage their relationship peacefully even as China rises by developing a common strategic narrative for that relationship. Rudd joined the Asia Society Policy Institute’s latest AsiaConnect briefing to discuss his research and conclusions. This blog post presents excerpts from his remarks, along with an audio recording of the discussion.

On U.S. and Chinese perceptions of one another:

I think that the first thing that most Chinese assume about the United States is that the United States will not simply sit on its hands, and allow China to in any way supplant it as the number one global power or the number one regional power in Asia. […] In the last 12 months, China has formed a broader view about operational dimensions about American strategy toward China, which they thought to summarize internally in five core points. Namely, that the United States was pursuing an operational strategy to (a) isolate China, (b) contain China, (c) diminish China, (d) internally divide China, and (e) sabotage China’s leadership. […]

I believe that it’s important for us to recognize that America’s strategic perceptions and conclusions are of a different nature. America and its policy establishment reject each of the five propositions I’ve just referred to from the Chinese. […] America’s strategic conclusions remain that whatever China may say, what it is doing is a policy aimed to see the back of the United States as an important actor in regional security in the decades ahead. Furthermore, the American conclusion [is] that China seeks to create a zone of strategic influence for itself across the region.

On the possibility for conflict between the U.S. and China:

It’s not in the strategic interests of either country for [armed conflict] to occur. It’s not impossible, but it’s highly unlikely. Not impossible for the simple reason [that] you could have an incident between aircraft or vessels, or between the Chinese and American armed forces, whereby planes collide or ships collide and they crash and or they sink. […] Fortunately, the protocols for managing such incidents between the Chinese and the United States have been the subject of recent and significant improvement. Nonetheless, it cannot be removed entirely from the calculus. More worryingly, however, is the possibility of such conflicts, accidental or designed, between the armed forces, of say Japan and China over outstanding territorial disputes in the East China Sea. […]

Having noted those two possibilities, I emphasize again that it is highly unlikely — unlikely in the extreme — that there is any significant possibility of armed conflict between China and the United States in the decade ahead.

On whether the U.S. and China can prevent their divisions from widening:

If you look at the thread of the analysis contained in my report, it does […] lead us to a conclusion that [given] the absence of a common policy narrative between China and the United States, bilaterally, regionally, and globally, that there is a scenario, not in the decade ahead, but perhaps beyond, that in fact we start to see a fundamental divergence between China and the United States. We begin to see fundamental divisions within Asia, between counties which line up with China on the one hand or with the United States in the other. We begin to see this divergence also reflected in the ways both countries approach the existing global rules-based order and any changes which countries like China will seek to make to that order. […]

In the report, I spend a considerable amount of time outlining what I describe as a new common strategic narrative for the two countries. What I describe as constructive realism is [that] China and the United States need to recognize at the level of the two countries’ leadership, their presidents, that there is a list of six or seven items that, frankly, are too difficult to resolve because the realist divisions between them at the moment are too great to manage in the direction of a sustainable solution. Questions such as armed sales to Taiwan, questions such as the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and others: these are outlined in the report.

The report also goes to not only address these realist conclusions, but also what can be done constructively in areas of common engagement between the U.S. and China, in the hope that these common engagements can build strategic trust over time.

Listen to the AsiaConnect briefing with Kevin Rudd using the audio player below.

Related Links

  • Read U.S.-China 21: The Future of U.S.-China Relations Under Xi Jinping
  • May 27: Kevin Rudd and Ian Bremmer discuss the rise of Asia and the changing ro…
harvard kennedy school
belfer center
kevin rudd
us-china relations
china
asia society policy institute
kevin rudd aspi
us china 21
policy
asiablog
asiaconnect
event
About
  • Mission & History
  • Our People
  • Become a Member
  • Career Opportunities
  • Corporate Involvement
visit us
  • Hong Kong
  • New York
  • Texas
global network
  • Australia
  • France
  • India
  • Japan
  • Korea
  • Northern California
  • Philippines
  • Seattle
  • Southern California
  • Switzerland
  • Washington, D.C.
resources
  • Arts
  • Asia Society Magazine
  • ChinaFile
  • Education
  • Policy
  • Video
shop
  • AsiaStore
initiatives
  • Arts & Museum Summit
  • Asia 21 Next Generation Fellows
  • Asia Arts Game Changer Awards
  • Asia Game Changer Awards
  • Asia Society Museum: The Asia Arts & Museum Network
  • Asia Society Policy Institute
  • Asian Women Empowered
  • Center on U.S.-China Relations
  • Coal + Ice
  • Creative Voices of Muslim Asia
  • Global Cities Education Network
  • Global Talent Initiatives
  • U.S.-Asia Entertainment Summit
  • U.S.-China Dialogue
  • U.S.-China Museum Summit
Connect
Email Signup For the media
Asia Society logo
©2023 Asia Society | Privacy Statement | Accessibility | Terms & Conditions | Sitemap | Contact

Asia Society takes no institutional position on policy issues and has no affiliation with any government.
The views expressed by Asia Society staff, fellows, experts, report authors, program speakers, board members, and other affiliates are solely their own. Learn more.

 

 

  • Visit Us
  • Hong Kong
  • New York
  • Texas
  • Global Network
  • Australia
  • France
  • India
  • Japan
  • Korea
  • Northern California
  • Philippines
  • Seattle
  • Southern California
  • Switzerland
  • Washington, DC