Can Beijing Stop the Ukraine War?
Financial Review
The following is an excerpt from an op-ed originally published in the Financial Review by Asia Society Chief Programming Officer and Asia Society Policy Insitute Senior Fellow Philipp Ivanov.
The one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine this week is a sombre milestone, reminding us of the enormous human toll of this conflict, but also of the failure of diplomacy.
The week was marked by uncompromising statements by leaders of Ukraine, Russia and the United States committing their countries to victory, and in the case of the United States — an unwavering support for Ukraine, leaving little hope for a peaceful resolution to Europe’s bloodiest conflict since 1945.
It was China that emerged as a surprise peacemaker when Wang Yi, the director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, said that his country would soon reveal a peace initiative for the conflict.
The mere fact that China offers a blueprint to end a conflict in far-away Europe is historic. It is perhaps the most significant departure from China’s tradition of narrow self-interest in its foreign policy. But is China’s peace diplomacy genuine and workable?
No details of China’s initiative have been revealed, but China says its “position paper” will be released within days. To manage expectations, China’s United Nations Ambassador, Zhang Jun, was at pains to emphasize that China would not be presenting a peace plan, it would simply be stating its position on the conflict.
Some reports suggest China will call to uphold the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the United Nations Charter, while also recognizing Russia’s security interests.
It is presumptuous to judge the merits of this initiative we know so little about. The world should give China an opportunity to make its case. But it is fair to ask if China has an interest, motivation, and influence to bring peace to Ukraine.
China also seeks to repair its relationship with Europe to prevent further economic decoupling.
Since the outbreak of the war a year ago, China has faced strident criticism from the West about its support for Russia. The United States, Europe and Ukraine repeatedly called for China to use its influence in Kremlin to stop the war.
China has not shown any real interest to be an active peace broker. What has changed?