2023 Outlook: Elections, Zero-COVID Exit to Shape U.S.-China Ties
Nikkei Asia
The following is an excerpt from ASPI Vice President Daniel Russel's op-ed originally published in Nikkei Asia.
The year 2023 will be bracketed between two sets of major political milestones for China and the U.S.
This year saw the triumph of Xi Jinping at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, with his loyalists sweeping up top positions and his tenure extended for a norm-breaking third term in October. Shortly afterward, U.S. President Joe Biden defied expectations and avoided humiliation in congressional elections.
2024 will bring presidential elections in both the U.S. and Taiwan, where the next leader could well be a less cautious, more overtly pro-independence politician.
In the U.S.-China relationship, the closing act of 2022 was the first in-person talks between Xi and Biden as presidents on the sidelines of the Group of 20 Summit in Bali. The opener for 2023, following the Lunar New Year holiday, will be U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's trip to China.
Will the Bali talks and the Blinken visit yield an easing of bilateral frictions and bring stability to 2023? Or will a combination of groupthink and nationalism in Beijing, plus confrontational politics in Washington and Taipei, instead lead to crisis?