By Asia Society Policy Institute Research Associate, Genevieve Donnellon-May

As Kazakhstan and parts of Russia grapple with severe flooding due to rapid and unusually early snowmelt​ and heavy rainfall, the stark reality of climate change impacts becomes increasingly undeniable.

Natural disasters have been a constant feature of our natural world, but the growing frequency, duration, and intensity of these events are alarming.

For its part Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest country, has already taken steps to help mitigate the impact of climate change, including adopting a strategy aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 last year.  More recently, in response to the floods, the Kazakh population united to provide relief to the affected areas through volunteer efforts and donations, while the government’s preventive measures protected 405 settlements across 14 regions, which house around 400,000 citizens, from flooding.

Visits by high-ranking officials, including Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, to some of the most affected flood areas and support provided by the government (such as food supplies and medical), further emphasise the government’s commitment to the crisis response.

That said, this catastrophic event highlights the urgent need for the international community to further help developing nations like Kazakhstan address climate change concerns. This can be achieved in three main ways.

The first approach is boosting financial and technological support. Aside from supporting capacity-building efforts to strengthen local expertise, global partners (like multilateral banks) can support the country’s transition to green energy through renewable energy infrastructure development.

A notable example of this is the partially-funded Asian Development Bank project 50-megawatt Baikonyr Solar Power Project. In a significant step towards sustainability, the electricity supplied to the grid increased by 84.1 Gigawatt hours in 2020 while greenhouse gas emissions avoided reached a significant 48,994 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. For reference, this is equivalent to the annual greenhouse gas emissions from 10,578 gasoline-powered passenger vehicles driven (such as a 2-axle 4-tire vehicles) based on the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator.

The second approach is to improve climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. As we witness the increasing impact of climate-related disasters, it is clear that climate change impacts must be incorporated into water resources management to better prepare systemic plans for responding to extreme water events.

Both policy and infrastructure are key to achieving these goals. The Kazakh government’s willingness to invest into the policy side is already clear, as the new flood prevention plan (2025-2029) demonstrates. Yet investments into new infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather events, which Astana has placed greater emphasis on, are also necessary.

To further address this, the Kazakh government could look other countries’ innovation in handling floods. A prime candidate is the Netherlands’ Delta Works Project, a series of construction projects built to protect the low-lying areas from flooding. With estimates suggesting that the likelihood of a catastrophic flood event has greatly declined to 1 in 4,000 years, the implementation of similar infrastructure alongside strict floodplain mapping and zoning regulations could help reduce the vulnerability of low-lying areas in Kazakhstan.

The third approach is improved flood forecasting through stronger data collection and monitoring. To achieve the interconnected objectives, flood forecasting, including climate change modelling alongside hazard mapping and risk assessments must be undertaken across all provinces to generate more accurate hydrological projections and identify vulnerable areas.

With 24 hours’ notice of an impending hazardous event reducing economic damage by 30 percent, flood forecasting and early warning systems can support disaster preparedness and responses while also preparing the public accordingly.

Concurrently, stronger data collection and flood forecasting may support existing limited early warning systems across Kazakhstan to minimise the potential impact of extreme climatic events. Interest from Astana is clear, having hosted the High-Level Dialogue on Climate Change and Resilience in Central Asia in September last year.

As the United Nations notes, the benefits are significant. Investing US$ 800 million in early warning systems in developing nations can prevent enormous economic losses – between US$3 to 16 billion – annually.

Through more comprehensive data collection and better forecasting, the use of early warning systems can also give authorities and communities more time to take preventive measures.

The effectiveness of this approach was seen in 2023 when Myanmar’s improved disaster management for Cyclone Mocha, including domestic early warnings, resulted in a death toll of 145 people. This was in sharp contrast to Cyclone Nargis (2008) which caused between 84,000 to 140,000 deaths. Following Cyclone Nargis, experts linked Myanmar’s lack of weather radar network that could predict cyclones and absence of an early warning system as two major reasons for the extent of the cyclone’s damage in the country.

When extreme climatic events move across international borders, stronger regional cooperation is crucial to reducing the impact, particularly given the limited and often fragmented data collection processes currently in place.

As landlocked Kazakhstan and neighbours may have their own interests and problems when responding to such scenarios, real-time data sharing and coordination among affected countries through existing regional or multilateral initiatives can help address these concerns while also supporting inter-regional collaboration.

The floods in Kazakhstan and Russia highlight the current and significant reality of climate change. As Astana takes steps toward to addressing climate change impacts, the hope is that its actions might encourage similar commitments elsewhere.

Challenges remain in the aftermath of the disaster, yet resilience shown by Kazakh citizens highlight their capacity to surmount adversity and will likely influence the nation’s approach to future challenges.

This article originally appeared in Modern Diplomacy.