Pakistan underwent a transformative electoral process on February 8, 2024, marking a crucial chapter in the nation's political journey. The aftermath of these elections not only reflects the country's intrinsic sociopolitical complexities but also underlines the evolving dynamics of power and governance.

The Road to the Polls and a Fragmented Mandate

The journey to the polls was a rollercoaster of events that captivated both domestic and international audiences. From the legal battles faced by former Prime Minister Imran Khan to the resurgence of Nawaz Sharif as a top contender for the premiership, Pakistan's political arena displayed its characteristic volatility. Integral to the discourse surrounding the elections was the intense scrutiny over the fairness of the electoral process and the influence wielded by Pakistan's powerful military establishment.

February 8’s electoral outcomes delivered a fragmented mandate, with no single party securing an outright majority in the National Assembly. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), despite facing significant challenges, including Khan’s detention and being forced to field candidates as independents following the stripping of its electoral symbol, secured an impressive 93 seats in the National Assembly. Simultaneously, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), led by Nawaz Sharif, clinched 75 seats, bolstered by perceived military backing. The Pakistan People's Party (PPP), helmed by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, secured 54 seats, completing the top three positions.

However, allegations of vote rigging and electoral malpractice have marred the legitimacy of the results. The PTI vehemently contends that its apparent majority was compromised. International observers, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, expressed concerns, urging a thorough investigation into reported irregularities. Specifically, the United States highlighted restrictions on freedoms of expression, association, and peaceful assembly, emphasizing the importance of investigating claims of interference or fraud. Moreover, a group of representatives of the U.S. Congress echoed these concerns, further casting doubt on the fairness and transparency of the election.

Pakistan's caretaker government and Election Commission have rebuffed the rigging accusations, asserting the integrity of the electoral process. When asked, the Pakistan Foreign Office denied any knowledge of private discussions between the United States and Pakistani officials about the general elections, further reiterating its rejection of international criticism.

On February 20, following their initial announcement to form a coalition, the PPP and the PML-N reached an agreement to establish a government. They revealed that Shehbaz Sharif would be their coalition’s candidate for prime minister, while Bhutto Zardari’s father, Asif Ali Zardari, was nominated for president — a position he has previously held.

It is worth noting that the PML-N's selection of Shehbaz Sharif mirrors the strategy of the previous Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition. However, the PDM faced challenges in achieving any significant strategic and economic stability during its 16-month tenure between April 2022 and September 2023, eventually leading to the transfer of power to a caretaker government, prompting questions about whether this time will yield different outcomes.

As the PDM 2.0 style coalition takes form, the PTI leadership stands resolute in their rejection of power sharing with the PML-N, the PPP, and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM) party. They are committed to maintaining a robust opposition stance until their complete mandate is recognized, opting instead to form alliances with smaller parties. Additionally, they have outlined plans for peaceful protests nationwide.

The Post-Election Terrain: Economic, Political, and Diplomatic Challenges Ahead

The incoming government faces a multifaceted set of challenges spanning economic, political, and diplomatic realms. Foremost among these is a deep-rooted economic crisis marked by rampant inflation, dwindling foreign exchange reserves, and sluggish growth. Having narrowly averted sovereign default last summer through a $3 billion International Money Fund (IMF) bailout, Pakistan now stands at a critical juncture as this arrangement nears its conclusion in March. Securing another IMF program is imperative to stabilize the economy, yet the forthcoming negotiations are poised to be anything but straightforward. Concerns loom over the new government's credibility and legitimacy, exacerbated by the potential of a reelection in the near future. Successfully navigating these challenges will necessitate the implementation of stringent economic measures while delicately managing intricate political dynamics. Although the IMF has expressed readiness to collaborate with the new government on policies for macroeconomic stability and prosperity, PTI’s jailed leader Imran Khan reportedly intends to issue a letter to the IMF requesting an election audit before proceeding with further talks.

Besides facing economic challenges, the country's increased security issues and diminished prospects for progress have caused a significant exodus of talent in recent years. While some individuals remain hopeful for a brighter future and have voted for change, they are disillusioned by the recent alleged electoral manipulation, which undermines their mandate. There is a widespread desire for democratic governance, yet Pakistan's historical struggle with military intervention presents a significant obstacle. It is imperative for the incoming government to confront these democratic deficiencies head on, recognizing the challenge ahead in restoring faith in the electoral process and fostering an environment where citizens can sustain hope for a better future. Failure to do so risks exacerbating civil unrest and deepening sociopolitical fissures. The recent blockade of the social media platform X in Pakistan further compounds the challenge, heightening frustration regarding the population's freedom of speech and expression. It also elicited additional criticism from human rights activists.

Moreover, the international community's scrutiny of Pakistan's electoral practices accentuates the urgent need for introspection and reform. The recent reclassification of Pakistan by The Economist Intelligence Unit, downgrading it from a “hybrid regime” to an “authoritarian regime,” serves as another wake-up call to safeguard democratic principles and uphold the will of the people. Regarding the aforementioned blockade of X, Washington has taken note and called upon the country to restore access, underscoring the global importance of the matter.

Pakistan's diplomatic landscape also presents serious hurdles, particularly in managing relations with neighboring countries. Relations with India remain largely strained. Although it was perceived that should Nawaz Sharif come into power, there might be an opportunity for rapprochement, as Sharif has often conveyed a desire to mend ties with the country’s eastern neighbor. Moreover, Pakistan's deportation of unregistered Afghan migrants has adversely impacted its ties with Afghanistan, while recent cross-border incidents with Iran have further exacerbated Pakistan's diplomatic intricacies.

The country’s dynamic with the United States has remained complicated since the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and the deepening U.S.-India alliance over the past few years has further added to its complexity. Despite recent diplomatic overtures, including high-level visits from Pakistan to the United States, the relationship continues to be moderately tense. It remains important for the future government to showcase nuanced diplomacy and proactively work toward restoring trust between the two countries. As a start, the United States has already expressed willingness to engage with any future Pakistani government.

Furthermore, China, a pivotal ally, has made substantial financial investments in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), reflecting its strategic interest in Pakistan's security and stability. However, CPEC's progress has been hindered by economic volatility; pandemic disruptions; and security challenges, including targeted attacks on Chinese personnel. Ensuring domestic security and economic resilience is imperative to sustain the momentum of CPEC and mitigate potential setbacks.

In addition to diplomatic and economic imperatives, Pakistan must confront pressing environmental concerns. The nation is still grappling with the aftermath of the devastating 2022 floods and is recognized as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. While Pakistan has made strides in international climate forums, such as COP27, and initiated measures such as the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund, substantial action remains imperative. Given the profound impact of environmental factors on Pakistan's agrarian economy, implementing robust climate resilience, adaptation, and mitigation strategies, complemented by effective governance mechanisms, is essential for charting a sustainable course forward.