How 2024 Will Be a Watershed Climate Moment for China
The following is an except from Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) Incoming Director of the China Climate Hub Li Shuo in TIME.
China has undergone a drastic transformation in recent decades, from a poor Global South country into the world’s second-largest economy, lifting millions out of poverty in the process. But with that growth has come plenty of emissions. And yet, China is on the brink of a new era that will have a major impact on the planet’s future.
According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CERA), a Finnish think tank, China's emissions may have peaked in 2023. Its economy is slowing down systemically, its construction sector is weak, wind and solar energy are growing rapidly, and hydro-power output will rebound after a series of droughts. As a result, China’s carbon emissions are expected to decrease in 2024, a trend that looks set to continue in the years that follow.
The International Energy Agency reached a similar conclusion in its World Energy Outlook 2023 report. The report predicts that global greenhouse gas emissions could peak in 2025, partially driven by what’s happening in China.
If still differing on exactly when China will peak, analysts are increasingly of the view that China’s carbon peak point is imminent. This should help shift the conversation to the more important question: where will China go from here?