By Asia Society Policy Institute Research Associate, Genevieve Donnellon-May

FOOD SECURITY—the availability to obtain and use sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food—is a fundamental human need. Achieving this goal of ‘zero hunger’, for all people everywhere, is a widely agreed upon aim codified in Goal 2 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) for 2030: “End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.” As of June 2022, around 828 million people experienced nightly hunger, while 50 million people across 45 countries are on the edge of famine. Domestic food price inflation remains high globally, pushing millions into extreme poverty and making hunger and malnutrition more severe. Acute food insecurity affected 345 million people in 82 countries in 2022, rising from 135 million in 2019.

Efforts to achieve zero hunger have faced hurdles as witnessed in the current global food crisis, in turn fuelled by multiple emergencies including COVID-19 pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and consequent recessions, climate shocks in global bread baskets, armed conflicts, labour shortages, food price inflation¹, and government-imposed trade-distorting policies. Notably, the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War—a war between two agricultural powerhouses and major exporters of cereals and oilseeds —has had profound impacts on global food security by worsening existing food crises in some countries and exposing import dependency vulnerabilities in many others.

To be sure, the vulnerabilities of food systems that employ 2 billion people and sustain and nourish all of the world’s 8 billion people, were already evident in the early 2010s; the subsequent years intensified these challenges. In 2023 alone, the world faced multiple crises that affected food and fertiliser production and distribution, and led to increased prices, further emphasising the vulnerability of food systems and global food security. With the world's population projected to substantially increase by 2050, a 60 to 70-percent rise in global agricultural production along with increases in inputs like fertilisers are necessary to meet the growing demand.

There are multiple obstacles, however, amid the persistent and interconnected challenges of conflicts and supply chain disruptions, further compounded by factors including climate change, land degradation and soil erosion, food wastage and loss, yield gaps, and competing water uses (domestically and regionally). These challenges affect food availability,² access,³ utilisation⁴ and stability.⁵ In turn, these lead to limited local availability of food, increased prices, reduced food safety standards, and declining incomes, particularly in vulnerable areas. They could also worsen political instability, conflict, and forced migration patterns. Potential damage to agricultural production, trade, and food security may have domestic and global repercussions too, and therefore, addressing these challenges to achieve zero hunger by 2030 is truly a formidable task.

A Framework for Addressing the Challenges

Attempts to reach the UN SDG Goal of Zero Hunger by 2030 will face the lethal combination of complex geopolitical dynamics, extreme climatic events, local conflicts, and external factors like economic downturns, further contributing to disruptions in domestic and global food security and system resilience. Future demographics and the rising middle-classes, alongside concomitant growing food demands (including for more expensive and diverse food like meat, dairy, sugar, and edible oils), climate change, and geopolitical drivers underscore the interconnected impacts on countries worldwide, jeopardising the goal. Reforms to global food systems are needed amid an environment of recurrent crises and threat multipliers.

One of these reforms must address the crucial issue of multiple global breadbasket failures which could intensify pressures on global food markets and food security efforts due to increased demand and limited availability, threatening the lives of hundreds of millions of people. Adding to reform concerns is the concentration of food surpluses in a handful of countries like the United States and Russia. In contrast, many more (such as Singapore and the United Arab Emirates) rely heavily on food imports⁶ exposing them to market fluctuations, trade bans, and food price volatility.

Compounding the challenges to zero-hunger is the continued disruptions to supply chains and key trade routes, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East, which could affect global food supply trade. Fears of countries weaponising food and fertiliser supplies against each other further add complexity, amplifying global and domestic food insecurity concerns.

These challenges strain the resilience of the global food system. The impact on food and fertiliser prices, availability, and access could affect populations in both producing and importing nations. Rising food costs and global shortages also heighten difficulties for already poor and vulnerable populations, increasing malnutrition risks.

For governments, policymakers, farmers, and other stakeholders, improved preparation, monitoring, and resilience building can help address concerns and predict potential outcomes. Doing so can help improve nutrition and lead to greater food security.  Efforts should include more effective early-warning systems that leverage innovative predictive algorithms using real-time data and artificial intelligence. This could help governments, policymakers, farmers, and communities by tailoring crisis responses to different contexts, such as predictions of the consequences of climatic events on agricultural production and zoonotic disease outbreaks. Collaborative efforts between governments at all levels, both in and across regions and based on the sharing of information, research, and reserves can help mitigate climate impacts and enhance global food system resilience.

Climate change adaptation and mitigation are imperative in addressing climate change impacts on agricultural production. Farmers could switch to and increase the growing of less-thirsty crops and also adopt new varieties of flood- and drought-resistant ones, including within the context of strengthening seed security, new technologies, water-efficient irrigation systems (such as drip irrigation), and information dissemination. Mid- to longer-term measures include improving soil health to increase soil resilience to drought, while reducing the need for chemical fertiliser—a major source of emissions—to ensure food security.

In the face of globalised food systems, global food security is increasingly dependent on the movement of food from a few breadbasket regions to food-deficit areas across the world, often through ‘food chokepoints’. In this light, maintaining open trade is crucial for the continuous flow of food and fertiliser supplies. The establishment of safe trade corridors to maintain trade may be encouraged, if needed, while intercountry and inter-regional agreements could be negotiated at a global level to help ensure more stable food prices.

Coordinated strategies between governments and farmers for food production and greater inter-regional and intra-regional trade can enhance domestic agricultural output and reduce import dependency. Engaging in regional and global dialogues, bilateral cooperation, and joint initiatives (such as research projects) can assist in the larger efforts.

Furthermore, countries may continue to increase local agricultural production and resilience, while considering fertiliser production to address domestic food security and also add to national stockpiles. Aside from addressing land degradation, soil erosion, food wastage concerns (such as through storage infrastructure investments) as well as supply chain inefficiencies, crop diversification, agricultural diversity, and using various biotechnologies, agricultural technologies (such as drones and soil moisture monitoring) should also be used. Innovative approaches, including ‘disruptive technologies’ and controlled-environment agricultural practices (e.g., fish farms) can contribute to self-sufficiency. The scaling-up of regenerative agriculture and other alternative farming methods such as permaculture could be considered. Addressing yield gaps is also vital⁷ as this can reduce the amount of land used in agriculture, as is strengthening of national agricultural policies and governance.

Emphasis should also be placed on the interlinkages between consumer consumption habits and agri-businesses. Much of the world, particularly countries with large populations, is reliant on water-intensive grains like wheat and corn (maize) that account for 60 percent of all calories consumed globally. Consumption of these staples is expected to swell alongside global population increases, changes in dietary preferences, and rising incomes.

To help reduce dependence on these grains while ensuring that the nutritional needs of an expanding world population can be met through diverse food sources, local millets (such as sorghum and pearl), which have been grown and traded for millennia by farmers and indigenous peoples globally and which are highly resilient crops, should be mainstreamed. To further support this, large food businesses may need to be incentivised or even regulated, to some extent by governments, to offer sustainable food and promote sustainable agricultural practices.

Reinforcing these efforts would require that smallholder farmers⁸ who account for the majority of farmers⁹, and upon whom around 2 billion people rely on for food and income, should receive greater financing support. A November 2023 report found that in 2021, smallholder farmers received a mere 0.3 percent of international climate finance.31 Smallholder farmers could be supported through various measures, including better access to credit market and insurance to improve productivity, and be given a greater voice in the formulation and implementation of food security-related strategies. Attention should also be paid to the inclusion of vulnerable communities, particularly women and children who are disproportionately affected by food insecurity. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations suggests that ensuring women smallholder farmers have the same access to productive resources as men could help boost food production by 30 percent and reduce world hunger by 15 percent.

Equally pressing is the need for expanded and more efficiently used financing, particularly when considering the long-term impacts of climate change on agri-food systems. Estimates from the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit stated that transforming food systems could cost anywhere from US$300 billion to US$400 billion annually through to 2030 to transform food systems and make them fit for the zero hunger goal. In this backdrop, domestic public, international development banks, and the private sector can all play a role in food systems transformation and resilience. These would include small-scale agrifood systems that receive under 1 percent of total climate finance and 19 percent of total climate finance for agrifood systems.¹⁰

For instance, global financial hubs and importing countries like Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and Rwanda could play bigger roles in identifying new financial mechanisms for climate insurance, adaptation and mitigation.

Looking Ahead

Global food price increases interact with local conditions, emphasising the complex interplay between global markets and localised impacts on achieving zero hunger. The war in Europe highlights the interconnectedness of conflicts in one region affecting global food supplies, stressing the importance of resilient and diverse supply chain systems to achieve food security.

Climate shocks, conflicts, and competition for natural resources will continue to exacerbate food inflation and damage agricultural production. Decreases in production could see less produce available for export and limited supplies on the global market for importers, causing fluctuations in food availability, access, and price, and exacerbating market volatility. There are also concerns of hoarding and food shortages, likely to produce competing demands from importing countries and inflate food prices. As food security is part of national security, such situations may worsen competition for food supplies, heightening existing socio-economic and political tensions across countries and regions.

Yet amid an increasingly fractured geopolitical environment, opportunities to prioritise cooperation over conflict remain, as collaborative efforts by governments, policymakers, farmers, local communities, and other stakeholders are becoming more necessary than ever. There is no ‘one size fits all’ approach to achieving food security and improving interconnected food supply system resilience, but plausible measures can be taken at all levels, as outlined in this essay, to bring the world closer to zero hunger.

This article originally appeared in Observer Research Foundation.

¹ In October 2023, the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations food price index reported nearly 25 percent lower global agricultural food commodity prices, attributed to strong harvests, reduced shipping costs, and lower energy and fertiliser prices. Cereals, vegetable oils, meat, and dairy products drove this decrease in most markets. Sugar and rice prices were the two notable exceptions due in part to climate change impacts on production, trade restrictions, and producer country stockpiling over fears of an impending shortage.  

² The existence of food in a particular place at a particular time.

³ The ability of a person or group to obtain food.

⁴ The ability to use and obtain nourishment from food. This includes a food’s nutritional value and how the body assimilates its nutrients.

⁵ The absence of significant fluctuation in availability, access, and utilisation.

⁶ According to the Singapore Government Agency, Singapore imports more than 90 percent of its food from around 170 countries and regions.

⁷ Countries may have a lower yield than others for different crops or livestock. For instance, it was recently reported that the average wheat yield in Pakistan for the past 5 years – 2.9 tons per hectare – is 17% lower than India, 49% lower than China, and 47% lower than the EU.

⁸ Defined as farmers who manage areas varying from less than one hectare to 10 hectares.

⁹ In Africa, smallholder farmers account for 80 percent of farmers. In Asia, the proportion is at 87 percent.

¹⁰ For reference, the market value of the global food industry is believed to be around US$10 trillion, according to Daniela Chiriac, Harsha Vishnumolakala, and Paul Rosane, “The Climate Finance Gap for Small-Scale Agrifood Systems,” Climate Policy Initiative, November 22, 2023, https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-climate-finance-gap-for-small-scale-agrifood-systems/