March 15, 2024 — “As water becomes more and more scarce, you will see a scenario where individual countries might want to protect and secure these resources for their populations, which can lead to competition and potential conflict between upstream and downstream countries,” shared Farwa Aamer, Asia Society Policy Institute’s Director of South Asia Initiatives, during yesterday’s conversation about the implications of climate change and geopolitics on the transboundary river basins in the Himalayan region. Joining Aamer were Pon Souvannaseng, Assistant Professor for Global Studies at Bentley University; Li Shuo, ASPI China Climate Hub Director; and Orville Schell, Asia Society’s Arthur Ross Director of U.S.-China Relations.

The Himalayan region is home to some of the most prominent transboundary river basins in the world including the Yarlung-Tsangpo/Brahmaputra, the Indus, and the Ganges river basins. These rivers not only sustain the lives and livelihoods of millions but also traverse the borders of countries with a deep history of mistrust. There is no formal regional mechanism for shared water governance, barring bilateral agreements, such as the Indus Waters Treaty and the Ganges Waters Treaty, between some countries. 

Li Shuo shared that tension between upstream and downstream countries throughout the Himalayan region is nothing new. However, the narrative of China as an upstream “bogeyman” has really emerged in the last half-century, especially around its control over the Mekong river. Since 1995, China has built nearly a dozen hydropower dams across the Mekong, challenging the livelihoods of communities in downstream Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Pon Souvannaseng added that U.S.-China competition for influence across Southeast Asia has complicated dialogue between riparian nations. “There is this kind of U.S.-China rivalry [based narrative] of China’s withholding water through reservoirs from downstream countries,” said Souvannaseng. “You see these kind of geopolitical narratives being recycled over and over when it is convenient for other parties to do so. My concern is how do we talk about water access in the Mekong Delta in its own right.”

Souvannaseng noted that China is actually doing a good job of making countries in the Mekong Delta feel like they have a place in conversations about freshwater sharing in the region. Meanwhile, Mekong tax payers are footing the bills that have emerged as OECD donors, like the U.S., are spending less in the region for reasons like human rights and environmental concerns.

“This kind of U.S. Cold War relic of the U.S. framing [China as bad] in these big discourses is going to do the U.S. a disservice as an ally in the region. China does a better job at this collective diplomacy of ‘we hear you, your voice is valid, you’re living in this reality, and we completely agree,’ This playing countries off each other is not only divisive but geopolitically counter productive to the US’ angle [in the region],” said Souvannaseng.

While there are plenty of geopolitical impediments in the way, climate change mandates imminent cooperation between upstream and downstream countries across the Himalayan region — as well as a prominent role for the international community. “It is in the interest of these countries and in the interest of their populations that water is seen as a shared resource and that the crisis  —in terms of water stress and water scarcity — is considered a challenge that needs cooperative action,” said Farwa Aamer, noting the need to perhaps learn from best practices elsewhere in the area of shared river governance and management, quoting the examples of the Senegal River Basin Development Organization (OMVS) and the Nile Basin Initiative.

Li Shuo agreed: “It just requires all these countries to look at their core interests, to focus on their development agenda, and see what is in their real interest to achieve. Maybe if they can do that then they will realize that when it comes to shared resources in this part of the world, they actually need to get their act together and move beyond static geopolitics.”