David Firestein Reflects on the Reality of Taiwan’s Role in the U.S.–China Relationship
HOUSTON, April 18, 2023 — In partnership with the George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations and Foster Global LLP, Asia Society Texas welcomed David Firestein, president and CEO of the George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S.–China Relations, to share his insights on Taiwan and the U.S.-China relationship. Charles Foster, Chairman of Foster Global LLP, moderated the discussion on the impact of relations and regional security.
Help Us Build a More Inclusive World
Inconvenient truths
A former decorated career U.S. diplomat, Firestein addressed points of security, diplomacy, current events, and prospective scenarios in the U.S.–China relationship, with emphasis on the developments that transpired following former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.
Firestein described certain aspects of the U.S. policy concerning China and Taiwan and referred to them as “inconvenient truths.” Despite the Taiwan Relations Act, Firestein said he believes that unification, even if peaceful, would not be desirable for the U.S. government. He added that the U.S. government's decisions towards Taiwan are bound by policy and not law, which could cause Chinese authorities to perceive America’s decisions related to Taiwan as unpredictable, with the potential to create tension in the region.
On unification
According to Firestein, the fundamental problem with unification is the incompatibility of China’s and Taiwan's social and political systems, as reflected in Article 1 of their respective Constitutions.
Firestein cited polling data that indicated the overwhelming majority of Taiwanese people would not choose unification, if the use of force by Beijing wasn’t a possible scenario. In this regard, he elaborated that U.S. support to Taiwan would be insufficient to solve Taiwan's security dilemma since military parity with China would not be possible to achieve.
On the possibility of war, Firestein expressed his belief that war is not likely to happen. From his perspective, it is likely that China perceives that the costs of such a decision currently outweigh the potential advantages.
On current events
During the discussion, Foster engaged Firestein and the audience on the implications of recent events, including the apparent Chinese surveillance balloon that flew over the U.S. and the increased number of troops sent from the U.S. to Taiwan. Foster and Firestein also analyzed China's nuclear capacity and deterrence power, as well as the economic implications and potential economic pressures on Taiwan if the regional tensions increased.
About Asia Society Texas
Asia Society Texas believes in the strength and beauty of diverse perspectives and people. As an educational institution, we advance cultural exchange by celebrating the vibrant diversity of Asia, inspiring empathy, and fostering a better understanding of our interconnected world. Spanning the fields of arts, business, culture, education, and policy, our programming is rooted in the educational and cultural development of our community — trusting in the power of art, dialogue, and ideas to combat bias and build a more inclusive society.
