Global Investment: Are We Witnessing a Sea Change?

Investors came out of 2022, having navigated the rocky shoals of a brutal global investment year. It had been a year in which there were few, if any, places to hide with both the global equity and bond markets getting shellacked. The hoary Chinese saying, “may you live in interesting times” certainly came to mind — Russia invaded Ukraine with the extraneous shock to the global economic system while exacerbating inflation, which had its nascent roots in Covid related supply chain disruptions. Inflation took off and ostensibly “sticky” (e.g. gas prices and food skyrocketed), the Federal Reserve increased interest rates and Central Banks followed suit. Concomitantly, China hewed to zero Covid policy with intense lockdowns — the world’s second-largest economy was grinding to a near halt while also dealing with a topsy-turvy real estate market.

The first month of 2023 has possibly presented a different picture. Global equity markets have been rising, the Fed is closer to its terminal interest rate, and inflation is ostensibly abating while China has opened up. What, however, does this portend for the rest of 2023 and beyond regarding the global investment landscape: Will inflation, again, rise and how will Fed Chair Powell’s pronounced purview of “higher for longer” affect the U.S. economy? How will the Fed’s quantitative easing over the U.S. debt ceiling play into all of this? Will China’s reopening lead to a revivification of its economy and, if so, how will this impact global economies and markets (e.g. renewed commodity inflation) as well as the massive Chinese domestic market? Will increasing tensions between the governments of the world’s two largest economies possibly lead to a global economic turn for the worse? What, if any, black swan event might be looming on the horizon?

Please join Howard Marks, Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management and Ida Liu, Global Head of Citi Private Bank for a trenchant investment discussion, moderated by ASSC’s former Executive Director and erstwhile Wall Street Journal journalist, Jonathan Karp, for a Webinar on February 22 at 5 p.m. PST. These investment savants will provide incisive insights with respect not only to the U.S. and global markets but also beyond. And just like orange was the new black, perhaps bonds are the new equities for the remainder of this decade if we are indeed entering the early stage of an investment sea change?

Speakers:
 

Ida Liu is the Global Head of Citi Private Bank, overseeing 50 offices across 18 countries and delivering wealth management solutions to ultra-high net worth families and their businesses globally. Before becoming the Global Head, she was the Head of Citi Private Bank North America and held numerous other leadership roles. Liu is an advocate for diversity, inclusion and gender equality in the workplace, serving as the Co-Lead of Citi’s Asian Heritage Affinity and as a member of the Citi Women Steering Committee. She has been named to Barron’s 10 Most Influential Women in Wealth Management, Barron’s 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance, and American Banker’s 25 Most Powerful Women in Finance. Additionally, Liu is a Young Global Leader (YGL) of the World Economic Forum, a member of The Committee of 100 (C100) and Young Presidents’ Organization (YPO). Liu serves on the UCLA Health Advisory Board as well as the Asia Society Board of Trustees.

Howard Marks is the Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, L.P. Since the formation of Oaktree in 1995, Marks has been responsible for ensuring the firm’s adherence to its core investment philosophy; communicating closely with clients concerning products and strategies; and contributing his experience to big-picture decisions relating to investments and corporate direction. Previously, Marks spent 10 years at The TCW Group, Inc. and 16 years with Citicorp Investment Management where he served in various leadership roles responsible for investments in distressed debt, high yield bonds, and convertible securities.

Marks holds a B.S.Ec. degree cum laude from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a major in finance and an M.B.A. in accounting and marketing from the Booth School of Business of the University of Chicago, where he received the George Hay Brown Prize.

Moderator:

Jonathan Karp served as Asia Society Southern California’s executive director from 2014 through mid-2019 and has since consulted for ASSC and other nonprofit organizations. He joined Asia Society after a distinguished career in journalism, including a decade of reporting in Asia. Karp began his journalism career in Israel in 1986 and continued as a foreign correspondent based in Hong Kong, New Delhi, and Sao Paulo, Brazil, the last two posts as a staff writer for The Wall Street Journal. In 2004, he transferred to the Journal’s Los Angeles Bureau and later served as senior editor at Marketplace Radio, leading the business and finance coverage for their family of public radio shows. Karp studied Middle Eastern History at Princeton.