The following excerpt is from an op-ed co-authored by Farwa Aamer, Director of South Asia Initiatives at Asia Society Policy Institute, and published by Nikkei Asia on January 30, 2025.

In the complex landscape of Sino-Indian relations, water epitomizes both vulnerability and strategic contention.

China's approval of a massive dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river — known as the Brahmaputra in India and the Jamuna in Bangladesh — reinforces its unilateral control as the upstream power. As nationalism shapes political narratives in both India and China, transboundary water resources have become a key flashpoint, testing whether their relationship tilts toward conflict or cooperation. 

The bilateral relationship today teeters on guarded optimism after years of heightened tension following the 2020 clashes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), their de facto border. While recent disengagement agreements and high-level gatherings – such as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping's meeting at the BRICS summit in October 2024 — hint at a tactical thaw, mistrust remains deeply embedded. India's closer alignment with the West and its growing position as a counterweight to China in the broader Indo-Pacific region, add layers of competition to this multifaceted balance. 

Amid these geopolitical crosscurrents, water is both a lifeline and a fault line in the bilateral relations. Nowhere is this more evident than in the shared yet contested waters of the Brahmaputra river system that sustains millions of lives across the region, accentuating its immense ecological, economic and geopolitical significance.

Read the full article here.