On February 20, one week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s high-stakes meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) convened a private roundtable with Professor C. Raja Mohan, Non-Resident Distinguished Fellow with ASPI, to evaluate the shifting dynamics of the U.S.-India partnership in President Trump’s second term.

Held under the Chatham House Rule, the discussion explored continuity and change in bilateral ties, the broader geopolitical landscape, major insights from the Modi-Trump meeting, and the implications of the meeting’s outcomes. The following takeaways distill the key themes and analysis shared during the roundtable discussion:

• Shifts in Domestic and Foreign Policies: The discussion recognized that President Trump’s second term represents not just an administrative change but a fundamental shift in U.S. domestic and foreign policies. Economic transformations in the United States—through tax reform, deregulation, and government downsizing—are expected to have ripple effects worldwide, including in India. This presents both challenges and learning opportunities—in terms of how modern capitalism is developing—for India and others.
• India’s Evolving Engagement with U.S. Politics: There is a growing realization in New Delhi of the need to better understand shifting U.S. political dynamics and devise strategies for engaging more proactively. This thinking prompted India’s external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, to engage early on with key players in the new administration, which helped lay the groundwork for Prime Minister Modi’s meeting with President Trump.
• Trade and Immigration: Ahead of the meeting, all parties recognized illegal immigration as a pressing concern. India took a proactive stance by making an early political decision to accept the return of illegal migrants, signaling goodwill on the issue. Another major point of friction was the trade imbalance. The United States runs a significant deficit in its trade with India—something that President Trump has raised repeatedly since his electoral win last year. Acknowledging this, India had already begun implementing tariff concessions, including measures announced in its recent budget, as a preemptive response to the U.S. narrative on reciprocal tariffs. Unsurprisingly, trade was a central focus of the bilateral meeting. In the aftermath of the meeting, negotiations progressed toward the first tranche of a multisectoral trade agreement, which is expected to be finalized ahead of President Trump’s anticipated visit to India in the fall for the Quad Summit.
  • This approach effectively buys India time for broader trade negotiations. However, significant reforms will be crucial. India must rethink its trade policy; particularly as global trade patterns shift and India’s export growth stagnates. Given that the United States is a key export destination for India, maintaining favorable market access is an economic necessity. Furthermore, the United States is expected to shift its stance from friendshoring to onshoring under the Trump administration, which could pose a challenge to India, as supply chain resilience—once a key aspect of U.S. trade policy—may be deprioritized in favor of domestic U.S. manufacturing.
• Defense Cooperation: U.S.-India defense ties have expanded significantly over the past two decades, and the new administration has reaffirmed its commitment to deepening cooperation. Delhi is expected to purchase more American defense equipment while it pushes for greater technology transfer and local manufacturing opportunities for India. The commitment to review International Traffic in Arms Regulations, according to the joint statement, is a potential breakthrough, as these regulations have historically been a barrier to deeper bilateral defense collaboration. Speculation around India’s potential acquisition of F-35 fighter jets, as stated by President Trump after the meeting, reflects growing military cooperation, though Indian defense procurement procedures remain complex and time-consuming. The new 10-year Framework for the U.S.-India Major Defense Partnership in the 21st Century, which was also announced as a part of the joint statement, could define a long-term road map for defense collaboration, focusing on joint production, intelligence sharing, and Indo-Pacific security coordination.
• Technology and Energy Cooperation: The Joe Biden administration, through the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology, established a strong framework for technological cooperation. Under the recent joint statement, elements of this framework are being repackaged—a common occurrence following administration changes. Significant efforts appear to be underway to build on existing cooperation frameworks, particularly on semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and clean energy. Energy cooperation remains a low-hanging fruit: U.S. natural gas exports to India are expected to rise, addressing India's growing energy needs. However, pricing details still need to be negotiated. Additionally, India's announcement of plans to reform its Atomic Energy Act and explore small modular reactor technology presents a new opportunity for deeper collaboration on nuclear energy development.
• Geopolitical Balancing Act and China Policy: The current U.S. approach to the Indo-Pacific appears to be a continuation of the previous administration’s policies. However, two distinct foreign policy currents have emerged within the administration—one driven by China hawks and the other shaped by the president’s instincts. This dynamic includes a tougher stance on China, whether on tariffs or relations with Panama, all while President Trump prioritizes his personal relationship with President Xi and sees China as an important player in the world. President Trump’s assertion that the United States would not pick a fight with China suggests a preference for negotiation and deal-making rather than direct conflict. Additionally, a potential U.S.-China-Russia trilateral engagement on the Ukraine conflict adds another layer of complexity. While India has little control over these developments, it must be prepared to navigate and manage the potential consequences effectively.
• Regional Dynamics in South Asia: If the United States retreats from the region, China’s already significant presence in South Asia is likely to expand further. This shift should prompt India to reassess its regional approach, prioritizing economic and political incentives over a leadership style that may be perceived as coercive. India has been increasingly attentive to its neighborhood policies, and by focusing on opportunities for collective economic growth and stability, it may encourage greater cooperation from South Asian neighbors. This could lead to a regional framework where India holds and retains significant influence regardless of China's presence.
• India’s Domestic Issues: While the previous U.S. administration had strong ties with India, there were ideological frictions over democracy, human rights, and governance issues. The new administration appears less interested in pressuring India on internal political matters, creating a greater sense of political comfort for India.