The following excerpt is from an op-ed by Wendy Cutler, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, published in The New York Times on January 31, 2025.

By all measures, China seems like the perfect target for Donald Trump’s tariff hikes. It has the largest trade surplus in goods of all U.S. trading partners, it employs a series of unfair trade practices to gain a competitive advantage, and it has failed to live up to the terms of the trade agreement that it signed with President Trump in his first term.

Still, Mr. Trump hasn’t imposed new tariffs on China. The 10 percent tariff hike he threatened to impose for its lax fentanyl policies is significantly less than what he promised on the campaign trail. Moreover, it is substantially lower than the 25 percent tariff he may soon put in place against Canada and Mexico.

To be clear, this does not mean that tariffs on Chinese products are off the table. Instead, it means that he may be playing for the biggest possible win, albeit with a significant risk of failure. China is a formidable negotiating partner, so success is far from guaranteed. In the meantime, he seems to be directing his retribution toward America’s neighbors, with whom he has more leverage, making an early victory on trade more feasible.

Read the full article here.