Sri Lanka’s Political Shift: Dissanayake’s 2024 Victory Marks New Era
In a transformative moment for Sri Lankan politics, Anura Kumara Dissanayake secured victory in the 2024 presidential election, marking a critical break from the political oligarchies that have long dominated the country. Dissanayake, the leader of the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, ran on a platform of transparency, anti-corruption, and economic reform, appealing to a populace weary of the crises that have engulfed the nation since 2022.
A Tumultuous Path to Change: Legacy of the Rajapaksas
Understanding Sri Lanka’s most recent election requires revisiting the political and economic calamities that preceded it. For nearly two decades, the Rajapaksa family has been entrenched at the core of Sri Lankan governance, beginning with Mahinda Rajapaksa’s ascension to power in 2005. Mahinda’s role in ending the nearly three-decade-long civil war in 2009 brought him national acclaim, allowing the Rajapaksas to construct a political dynasty rooted in nationalist rhetoric, centralized power, and militarization.
Although the Rajapaksas were hailed as nation builders by some, their governance increasingly became synonymous with nepotism, authoritarianism, and financial mismanagement. Following the deadly Easter bombings in 2019, the family returned to power with the election of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Mahinda’s brother and the former defense secretary, to the presidency. Gotabaya initially rode on the family’s nationalist legacy, but severe economic missteps under his administration soon became undeniable. Tax cuts, unsustainable borrowing, and misguided policies, such as the abrupt ban on chemical fertilizers in 2021 in a bid to go organic, contributed to an economic freefall that saw Sri Lanka default on its external debt for the first time in its history.
In mid-2022, the economic crisis culminated in widespread civil unrest, encapsulated by the Aragalaya movement — a mass protest that ultimately forced Gotabaya to flee the country and resign from office. The Rajapaksas’ political machine, once thought invincible, imploded under the weight of its hubris.
Following Gotabaya’s departure, Ranil Wickremesinghe — who had been appointed prime minister just two months prior — was elevated to the presidency by the Parliament. His rise to power, despite his unpopularity with the public, was seen as a stopgap measure to restore stability amid the chaos. Wickremesinghe, a six-time prime minister, faced a monumental task: not only to quell public unrest but to navigate Sri Lanka through its worst economic crisis in over 70 years.
Wickremesinghe’s interim presidency, though critical for stabilizing Sri Lanka in its moment of extreme volatility, did little to restore public faith in the overall governance of the island nation. While he successfully negotiated an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout of $2.9 billion and reached a debt restructuring deal with key creditors like China, Japan, France, and India, Wickremesinghe’s administration was still viewed by many as a continuation of elite, out-of-touch politics. The IMF deal, though crucial for Sri Lanka’s fiscal survival, came with severe austerity measures, including higher taxes, cuts to subsidies, and shrinking welfare programs, all of which exacerbated the everyday struggles of the population. Wickremesinghe’s tenure, therefore, became a balancing act between maintaining macroeconomic stability and surviving in the face of deep public dissatisfaction.
2024 Election: Key Contenders and Outcome
Out of the 38 candidates vying for Sri Lanka’s presidency, none were women — despite women making up nearly half the electorate. The race’s focus quickly narrowed to four prominent figures. Incumbent Wickremesinghe, despite his long-standing affiliation with the center-right United National Party (UNP), opted to run as an independent. Meanwhile, Sajith Premadasa, the opposition leader and son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, represented the Samagi Jana Balawegaya, the party he founded after breaking away from Wikremesinghe’s UNP. Namal Rajapaksa, the eldest son of Mahinda Rajapaksa, represented the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, continuing his family’s political legacy. Finally, Anura Kumara Dissanayake emerged as a prominent contender under the NPP alliance, which includes his Marxist-leaning Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP).
Roughly 17 million Sri Lankans were eligible to vote in the September election. Turnout was modest at 70%, lower than the record 83.72% seen in the 2019 election. On Sunday, September 22, after a historic second round of voting and an overall peaceful election process, Dissanayake was declared the victor, securing more than 5.7 million votes. He was followed by Premadasa, who received 4,530,902 votes, according to the Election Commission's official tally. Dissanayake was sworn in as Sri Lanka’s tenth president on September 23.
For many, Dissanayake’s victory came as no surprise, as his appeal had been growing in recent years, particularly among those disillusioned by decades of mismanagement and corruption. His message of a "clean political future" positioned him as a reformer willing to challenge Sri Lanka's entrenched political elite. His promise to make the IMF deal more equitable and to cushion the blow of austerity on the poorest citizens struck a chord with voters who felt abandoned by previous administrations.
Dissanayake’s victory was met with broad support from the international community. U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping were among the key world leaders who extended their congratulations. President Biden expressed a desire to strengthen U.S.–Sri Lanka relations, emphasizing collaboration on advancing peace, security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific — a region where Sri Lanka holds strategic importance. Meanwhile, President Xi underscored China’s commitment to deepening its long-standing partnership with Sri Lanka, highlighting the potential for enhanced political trust and cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Closer to home, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also welcomed Dissanayake’s win, reiterating Sri Lanka's vital role in India’s "Neighbourhood First" policy and Vision SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region), which prioritizes security and growth in the Indian Ocean region. Modi expressed optimism about expanding bilateral cooperation, noting that stronger ties between the neighbors would also benefit broader region.
These responses from global and regional powers highlight Sri Lanka's critical geopolitical position. Its leadership will need to navigate relationships with major powers such as the United States, China, and India, all of which have vested strategic and economic interests in the island nation.
Road Ahead: Economic Recovery and Foreign Policy
Just one day into his presidency, Dissanayake moved decisively, dissolving the Parliament and calling for snap elections on November 14. In an interesting turn, he appointed Harini Amarasuriya, one of three NPP members in Parliament, as prime minister — the first woman to hold the position in more than two decades.
During the campaign, Dissanayake made it clear that fresh parliamentary elections would be essential to implement his ambitious policy agenda and to make the system more reflective of the public’s needs. Dissanayake now faces the enormous challenge of stabilizing Sri Lanka’s fragile economy. He will need to make good on his promises of sustainable and inclusive growth while addressing the immediate crisis that has pushed nearly a quarter of the population into poverty.
Reassuring both local and international markets will be a useful immediate area of focus to build long-term economic stability in the country. During his campaign, Dissanayake reiterated that he would revisit the IMF bailout, alongside a commitment to reduce taxes. These are bold moves that risk unsettling the delicate economic recovery process, if not calibrated well. Former president Wickremesinghe indicated that any changes to the basic IMF plan could delay the release of the next tranche, which is important for the country’s economic stability. To that end, early discussions with the IMF and key foreign creditors will be critical as Dissanayake attempts to steer Sri Lanka out of its worst economic crisis in decades.
On the foreign policy front, the NPP, in light of its Marxist roots, particularly through the JVP, has been largely perceived as more pro-China. The Rajapaksa era saw an influx of Chinese investment through the BRI, which cemented China’s influence in Sri Lanka, most notably with projects like the Hambantota port, now a controversial symbol of Sri Lanka's debt diplomacy with Beijing.
During his campaign, Dissanayake specifically criticized a wind power project backed by India’s Adani Group, asserting that it poses a threat to Sri Lanka’s energy sovereignty. He pledged to cancel the project if elected.
Dissanayake's early statements and actions as president, however, suggest an overall more pragmatic and balanced approach to foreign relations, particularly in recalibrating ties with regional and international players. His inaugural address emphasized the need to engage with all global powers in Sri Lanka's best interest. "We will work with the world," he stated at his oath-taking ceremony, reflecting an understanding that Sri Lanka’s strategic position necessitates a foreign policy that is both flexible and multipolar. He also made clear that he does not want Sri Lanka to be “sandwiched” between India and China.
India has stepped up its relations with Sri Lanka, becoming a top trading partner. In 2022, the economic crisis in Sri Lanka opened the door for New Delhi to regain ground as it provided around $4 billion in financial aid, including food, essential medicine, and fuel to support the country’s ailing economy. While China’s presence in Sri Lanka remains significant, and will remain so in the near future because of its economic footprint in the country (China is the largest bilateral lender to Sri Lanka), India’s swift response to the crisis helped reassert its role as a key partner, leveraging historical and geographic ties.
Dissanayake’s visit to India earlier this year, where he met with Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, demonstrated his willingness to deepen ties with India. Jaishankar is due to visit Sri Lanka on October 4, the first visit by a foreign minister since the presidential election.
Geopolitically,Sri Lanka’s strategic location at the heart of the Indian Ocean positions it as a key player in global maritime trade, connecting vital sea routes. Thus, the country is central to the geopolitical interests of India, China, and the United States, each of which has a growing interest in the wider Indian Ocean region. The United States has also shown an increased commitment to cooperating with Sri Lanka on multiple fronts including economic relations, climate change, and security.
For Dissanayake, the challenge lies in balancing these relationships. He must engage with both regional and global powers to maximize Sri Lanka’s economic and strategic benefits while safeguarding its sovereignty and independence. His foreign policy will need to maintain neutrality, leveraging partnerships to foster growth without compromising national interests. In a year of political transitions across South Asia, Dissanayake will have an opportunity to discuss and explore cooperative plans with other new governments in the region as they work on their foreign policy agendas for the coming years. There is still potential for broader intraregional cooperation on shared issues and challenges, provided there is the political will and ambition to coordinate efforts.