Wednesday, February 26, 2025 — The Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis (CCA) has published “What to Watch at China’s Two Sessions in 2025” by Neil Thomas, CCA Fellow on Chinese Politics, and Jing Qian, CCA Co-Founder and Managing Director. The paper unpacks what to expect at the annual dual meetings of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) opening on March 4 and the National People’s Congress (NPC) beginning on March 5.

“The Two Sessions is expected to reveal a more pro-growth agenda compared to last year, with approximate targets of 5% for GDP growth, 4% of GDP for the fiscal deficit ratio, and 2% for consumer inflation. Further stimulus will come from roughly 3 trillion yuan in ultralong special treasury bonds and 4.5–5 trillion yuan in local government special-purpose bonds,” write Thomas and Qian.

However, any stimulus should be seen as a “short-term stabilization measure” aligned with Xi Jinping’s longer-term economic strategy, and no transformative policies to boost domestic demand appear to be in the pipeline. “While Beijing aims to stabilize growth, it is unlikely to unleash the proverbial ‘bazooka’ stimulus, as it needs to conserve fiscal resources for a potential trade war,” note Thomas and Qian. “Sweeping structural reforms remain improbable as the government remains committed to Xi’s vision of high-tech industrial self-reliance.”

“Beijing is betting that a massive Party-led push for research, innovation, commercialization, manufacturing, and digitalization can create new economic growth drivers to replace the real estate sector and generate productivity gains that help mitigate issues related to debt, demographics, and dependence on the West,” suggest Thomas and Qian. In particular, Beijing’s AI push is gaining momentum, and large state-owned enterprises have been directed to make AI a strategic priority.

Xi will not deliver a major speech at the Two Sessions, but he will address an NPC provincial delegation, a CPPCC sectoral group, and the NPC delegation from the People’s Liberation Army and the People’s Armed Police.

Thomas and Qian predict that no major foreign policy or personnel changes are likely to be announced at the Two Sessions. “One of the most significant potential developments would be if Xi comments on the 15th Five-Year Plan, which will define China’s economic and social development priorities for 2026–2030,” they write.

Read the full preview here. Members of the media interested in interviewing Thomas or Qian should email [email protected].