Wednesday, February 26, 2025 — Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) has published “U.S.-China-Southeast Asia Relations in a Second Trump Administration,” written by James Crabtree, Non-Resident Distinguished Fellow. The paper analyzes views of Donald Trump’s second term for Southeast Asia, assesses regional perceptions of risk in security and economic domains, and discusses how China might capitalize upon these perceptions.

“During Trump’s 2024 campaign, political elites across Asia maintained a measured outlook on a potential second term, particularly compared with their counterparts in Europe who were sounding alarm bells,” writes Crabtree. “This relative equanimity stemmed partly from their experience of Trump's first term, when many in Southeast Asia found him to be a transactional and unconventional leader but ultimately a manageable one. However, the chaotic radicalism of the first few weeks of Trump’s second term has dented that insouciance.”

Crabtree writes that the region’s primary concerns surrounding Trump’s second term lie in the risk of amplified great-power tensions destabilizing the “carefully managed diplomatic equilibrium” in which Southeast Asian nations have tried to maintain productive relationships with both Washington and Beijing. Regional fears focus on greater geopolitical competition leading to wider regional instability, notably through increased military tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

“No country wants to choose between the United States and China. Yet it appears increasingly likely that a second term will force precisely that kind of uncomfortable choice,” writes Crabtree.

Both Trump’s 10% tariff on China and his threats of imposing tariffs against countries with trade surpluses pose a major risk for trade dependent Southeast Asian economies. However, Trump may be willing to overlook trade surpluses in countries like Vietnam which have shown some willingness to challenge Chinese assertions in the South China Sea. “Overall, Trump is likely to seek a clear quid pro quo for any diplomatic engagement, with a particular preference for investment deals for American companies or foreign direct investment in the United States,” writes Crabtree.

According to Crabtree, the Trump administration’s approach to Southeast Asia will create opportunities for China to exploit. “Trump’s early decision to shut down USAID, for instance, plays perfectly into China’s narrative portraying the United States as a force for destabilization and China as a force for regional and global stability. The decision is likely to have wide-ranging implications in the region, leading to hospital closures in Thailand across the border from Myanmar and affecting areas such as climate financing and habitat preservation,” he writes.

Read the full paper here. Members of the media interested in interviewing Crabtree should email [email protected].