ASPI Vice President Daniel Russel's Interview with Former Indonesian Ambassador to the United States Dino Djalal.

Daniel Russel: As an experienced diplomat with long experience in the United States and as a high-ranking former government official, how would you describe the Indonesian perspective on the upcoming U.S. presidential election?

Mr. Dino Djalal: There are basically two elections in the world of overriding importance to Indonesia, both in terms of geopolitical significance and generating a public spotlight. One is naturally our own, and the other is the U.S. presidential election. The long campaigns and even longer pre-campaign periods have always been watched closely by Indonesians, who see the United States as a country that is immensely consequential. The average Indonesian will describe the United States as a superpower whose foreign policy has a great impact on Indonesia, on the region, and the world. So there has always been this fascination about U.S. presidents. Of course, given his connection to Indonesia, President Barack Obama was the most popular U.S. president. But there's always been fascination with the U.S. president, and a great deal of attention paid to the elections.

Russel: It's more than just curiosity; America is important. But what are the practical implications for Indonesia of who gets elected, that's it. Has it mattered significantly in the past?

Djalal: It has mattered in various ways at different moments. For example, under Suharto the view was that Republicans would be preferable to us and Indonesian politicians would say that. Because their perception was that Republicans cared more about trade, economics, and investment than democracy or human rights issues. Now, the reality wasn’t so simple, but that was the perception. Democrats were seen to be more active in pressuring Indonesia on democracy and human rights issues at that time. And then, of course, came the reformasi period and perceptions shifted. It was no longer as black and white as it appeared before.

Obama’s presidency was significant, not only because of his childhood experience in Indonesia but because when he came to Indonesia in 2010, he made the most memorable visit by any foreign head of state in Indonesian history. When he gave a speech at the University of Indonesia, millions of people in the country stopped what they were doing to listen. His speech was in the headlines for a week. Nobody else has ever done that. Even today people still talk about that Obama speech.

As for practical implications, most Indonesians would say that Trump's presidency had the most impact on public opinion in Indonesia. The only time we had one million people turning out to protest in Indonesia was when Indonesians demonstrated in front of the presidential office in Jakarta to protest the decision to move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018. I don’t think Indonesians had ever had a decision by an American president — or even any foreign policy issue — affecting the grassroots in that way. And in a sense, it also affected the Indonesian elections when President Jokowi ran for his second term in 2019. That issue was in the background and so there was greater need to show his Islamic credentials to the electorate, which was also reflected in his choice of vice-presidential running-mate.

Russel: So, in this current campaign, are you seeing anything that from the Republicans or the Democrats in terms of policies or positions that you think would affect Indonesian interests or attitudes?

Djalal: One of the questions that I get asked by students and other Indonesians is about immigration. The issue of illegal migration into the United States doesn’t directly affect us since it’s principally people coming across the southern border from Central and South America. But I get asked whether Muslims will be able to get visas to the United States if Trump returns. I remind them that when Trump enacted his “Muslim ban” policy in his first year in office, it was not aimed at Indonesia; it applied to Muslim majority countries in the Middle East. It didn’t directly affect U.S. visas or entry for Indonesians.

But I think the biggest question, Dan, is this: What would MAGA — “Make America Great Again” — actually mean for us if Trump wins a second term? When he was president, his approach created a lot of disruption and change — not just in domestic policy but in U.S. foreign policy as well. It’s clear that a second Trump term would end the continuity in traditional U.S. foreign policy that we see in the Biden administration. But what’s not clear is what a return of Trump would mean for countries like Indonesia in practice.

Russel: One dimension of “America First” was and would again, apparently, be tariffs and trade. What are the implications of Trump imposing across-the-board 10% tariff hikes and taking a tough line on countries that have trade surpluses with the United States? He is signaling very high tariffs on China, which would almost certainly further slow China’s economy and have a knock-on effect on countries in Southeast Asia.

Djalal: We would hope that the U.S. government would be wise about this and not yield to the temptation to take protectionist measures. Southeast Asian countries have been very consistent in anti-protectionist positions and have been quite persistent in making sure trade flows remain unimpeded. We think there should be greater trade facilitation measures, not the opposite. And remember, China is going to respond. New U.S. tariffs can lead to a trade war. So, those sorts of actions will not go down well with America’s trading partners in the region. Indonesia is quite sensitive about measures that raise barriers to trade. We are having quite some issues with the Europeans over this. So, any move by a new U.S. administration that would complicate trade relations would be seen as a concern by Indonesians.

Russel: What about on the security side? Indonesia is not a claimant in the South China Sea, but you've got real equities in the area of Natuna in terms of maritime security, and you also have a security partnership with the United States. To what extent would the Indonesian government be concerned about a shift in U.S. defense policy in the Indo-Pacific region?

Djalal: Yeah, well, first, the best thing about our relationship with the United States is that it is between the two militaries. Our mil-to-mil relations are very good now. The exercises, the exchanges, the consultations, the arms purchases — they're all, I think, at an all-time high now. The strategic trust they have with one another is also at a high point. I think that that part of our relationship will remain constant, especially now that President-elect Prabowo will take office in October because he was the one who oversaw this strengthening of our military relations. Second, I think what we want to see is more confidence building and the avoidance of an escalation of tension in the South China Sea. We are trying to push hard for the code of conduct negotiations with China to be finalized, but it seems that it's not going to happen anytime soon. We will be very wary of any prospect of heightened strategic rivalries in Southeast Asia. I think we will do our best to see that strategic stability prevails in our part of the Indo-Pacific region.

Russel: We talked a bit about Trump. What about Kamala Harris? Or to put it another way, what would your expectations be for another Democrat in the White House?

Djalal: Yeah. Well, to be honest, Kamala Harris is less known in Indonesia, and perhaps in Southeast Asia as well, because a lot of attention has been on Biden. It’s true that she attended the ASEAN Summit, and she did come to Indonesia and made a very good impression. Definitely there's no question that we like her, and we look forward to hearing more on her policy positions as a presidential candidate in this year's election. But unlike Biden, who is a longtime veteran of U.S. foreign policy who we know a lot about, Vice President Kamala Harris really needs to present her foreign policy ideas. We look forward to hearing what she has to say about our part of the Indo-Pacific region — Southeast Asia. In any case, whoever wins the US Presidential elections, the United States and Indonesia will remain bound by the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership that we have built together.

Russel: So, you mentioned that the military-military relationship between the United States and Indonesia is strong. Your president-elect is the current defense minister and is himself a former general. Perhaps defense is one aspect of the relationship that is likely to remain constant. Are there other elements in the U.S.-Indonesia relationship that you think would endure without being particularly affected by the politics of the White House?

Djalal: I would say that Indonesia and the United States are very much aligned on the need to preserve the freedom of the seas, especially in the South China Sea. If anything happens in that body of water, our trade would be affected, and the Indonesian economy, and other economies in our region, would be severely impacted. As a nation made up of islands, one constant in our foreign policy is to ensure our maritime rights are protected. The “archipelago concept” is central to our interests — namely, that we have sovereignty over the waters within the baselines of our islands. We've been very much at the forefront of the formation of UNCLOS — the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Maritime issues are very much integral to our overall foreign policy. And there's been a long appreciation of the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation, not just within Indonesian waters but throughout the South China Sea. This is a common interest between our two countries and an area where we would like to see continuity from the United States.

Russel: So, would it be fair to say that it is a priority for Indonesia, and perhaps for a number of other ASEAN countries, to ensure the continued robust presence of the U.S. Navy to keep the sea lanes open, to combat illegal fishing, and to maintain a certain level of stability?

Djalal: We have always been open to the U.S. naval presence in the area. Again, it is aligned with our interests and there's also a high degree of confidence and trust between our navies. Going beyond the defense relationship, I would mention three other areas in the relationship that are important to us. One is obviously commerce. And here is an area where the United States needs to do more to compete. There are a lot of players with a lot of trade packages — it's getting crowded. Trade is such a big item, and I know that Jakarta and Washington have been trying to bring our trade relationship to the next level. We are keen to have critical minerals be part of an elevated strategic trade relationship between the two sides. It's important for Washington to know that it's a very competitive space right now; everyone has something to offer on trade. So, the United States also needs to offer attractive packages to Indonesia and to others in the region. Secondly, I would say technology is a priority in the relationship. Access to technology is one of the key drivers of our interest in the United States. And the third area I would mention is education. Now, for many years the level of educational exchange has remained flat. I don't know why. So many different ambassadors and administrations in both countries have tried to increase the number of students from Indonesia studying in the United States. I think we're stuck at around 10,000. It would be nice to double it.

Russel: Have you got any thoughts or advice or recommendations for the next U.S. administration?

Djalal: Obviously, we would like the United States to be actively and constructively engaged in Southeast Asia. There is the thought in Southeast Asia that because of your political cycles, you are subject to a kind of stop-and-go syndrome. There's a period in your politics when you go on autopilot, and that is not reassuring to us. We know the United States has permanent interests in Southeast Asia, but we're not assured of your permanent attention. We saw this during the Trump administration, for example. President Trump did not attend any ASEAN Summits, and the post of American ambassador to ASEAN was vacant for some time. And not only that, the post of American ambassador to a number of Southeast Asian countries was left empty for some time. For us, presidential attendance at the ASEAN Summit and the presence of American ambassadors are things that we would like to be a constant. For us, the United States is very important — not just bilaterally but in terms of regional architecture. Many countries are engaged in hedging and balancing, including Indonesia, and the engagement and presence of the United States in that scheme of regional equilibrium is quite important to us. But, of course, that's up to Washington, DC. That's up to the political leaders there.

So, what advice? Obviously, show up — show up and listen, engage and add value to Southeast Asia. Not everything is measured by what you are going to put on the table, but we do like to see the United States being one of the countries that intensely cooperates with us on climate change, on technology, on food security, on education, on infrastructure, and so on. To enhance its engagement, the United States must be relevant to a wide range of issues that are important to Southeast Asians, one of the fastest-changing regions in the world.

Russel: How does the Middle East affect the U.S.-Indonesia relationship?

Djalal: I was a diplomat for 28 years. I can say that I've never seen the Indonesian public being as galvanized by a foreign policy issue as they are over the situation in Gaza. We've seen frictions in the past when there were incidents in Palestine, including some demonstrations, but never in this way. A lot of Indonesians and the political elite are questioning the world order because of what they see as glaring inconsistencies or double standards. We appreciate that the Biden administration has begun to use its influence more and more to push for a ceasefire. There is also widespread belief in Indonesia that the United States, given its strong relations with Israel, is a country that is best placed, with the right political will, to bring about a two-state solution. Also, given President-elect Prabowo’s interest in the Middle-East, especially on the Palestine issue, there may be an opportunity for Jakarta and Washington DC to work together in any future peace process. 

Ambassador Dino Patti Djalal is the founder of the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI) and former Indonesian Ambassador to the United States

Daniel Russel is Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute