The following is an excerpt of an op-ed written by Rorry Daniels, ASPI's Managing Director, and published in SCMP.

Events since the start of the year have reignited the downward spiral in relations between mainland China and Taiwan that accelerated following Democratic Progressive Party leader William Lai Ching-te’s election victory last year. 

In February, the U.S. State Department removed mention of opposition to Taiwan independence from its website. In mid-March, Lai lashed out against Beijing, calling it a “foreign hostile force”. At the end of the month, during a visit to Japan, United States Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasised Washington’s commitment to “sustaining robust, ready and credible deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, including across the Taiwan Strait”. 

Last week Beijing conducted massive military drills near Taiwan. All of these developments are continuations of existing trends but are no less serious despite their predictability.

The latest round of People’s Liberation Army exercises around Taiwan illustrates a fundamental disconnect in how Washington and Beijing interpret policy signals. This disconnect stems from different points of policy emphasis and anxieties on both sides of the Pacific.

Beijing fears being boxed out of its political position that both sides of the strait belong to one China and thus responds forcefully to political signalling of strengthened ties between the US and Taiwan. Meanwhile, the US fears that Beijing will use force to resolve the Taiwan issue, thus responding to Beijing’s military signals with political support. This downward spiral must be examined and discussed at high levels to bring stability to the Taiwan Strait.

Read the full op-ed here.