The Fate of U.S.-China Economic Relations in 2019
Kevin Rudd on CNN Business
On January 11, ASPI President Kevin Rudd joined CNN Business to discuss U.S.-China trade talks and the global economic outlook in 2019. As international markets begin to show strain from the U.S.-China trade war, countries around the world are also hedging their bets because of uncertainty about whether the current trend of American economic nationalism will continue into the future.
Rudd states that there is a convergence of interests between the United States and China to strike a deal on tariffs and trade. In particular, he believes that “China will be prepared to accept more than would normally be the case" because of its difficult domestic position at the moment.
On the other hand, the roadblocks that could prevent a deal are the more contentious parts of the U.S.-China commercial relationship, such as the undeclared rivalry between the two economies over technology. "Xi Jinping, back in 2017, announced a policy that China intended to obtain the commanding heights in the global artificial intelligence industry, and [the] China 2025 strategy is designed to do just that." According to Rudd, "this is the real terrain where the economic war between the two countries is being fought." While he is hopeful that we will see a compromise on tariffs and trade, Rudd worries that technological competition may actually deepen the rift between the two countries.