Europe Must Prepare Militarily and Economically for a Taiwan War
The following is an excerpt from Philippe Le Corre's op-ed in Nikkei Asia. Philippe is a Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis.
Europeans were once aware of the risks surrounding Taiwan's geopolitical position. This has now turned into full-fledged concern.
Leaders worry about the potential global impact of the tensions stemming from President Lai Ching-te's election win in January, and the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) drills in the Taiwan Strait. One reason for this is that Taiwan has become the European Union's (EU) fourteenth-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade in goods reaching $84.2 billion in 2022. The EU is also Taiwan's largest foreign investor.
The impact of a war in Taiwan Strait could be huge. Bloomberg Economics has estimated that a conflict between China and Taiwan could trigger a $10 trillion shock to the global economy around 10% of the world's gross domestic product.
European decision makers have thus started gaming scenarios and are discreetly making contingencies. Taiwan is the world's top manufacturer of high-end semiconductors, and East Asia is a major trading hub that concerns everyone. It is high time for Europe to make Taiwan an even bigger priority.
