Election Outcomes and Political Landscape

Elections for South Korea’s 300-seat National Assembly concluded on Wednesday, April 10, after months of campaigning and contention. Thursday morning’s results showed the Democratic Party (DP) winning a majority once more. Together, the DP and the Rebuilding Korea Party, a satellite progressive party, took 187 seats, while President Yoon Suk Yeol’s conservative People Power Party (PPP) secured only 108 seats. Many political commentators predict that the opposition’s large majority will render President Yoon a lame duck for the remaining three years of his term, creating enormous challenges as he tries to put forth major policy initiatives. Following the announcement of the PPP’s severe losses, senior presidential officials, including Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, offered their resignations, though it is unclear at this time whether they will be accepted.

Navigating a Turbulent Election Cycle amid Division and Discontent

Viewed as a midterm referendum on the president, the 22nd National Assembly elections came at a time of high voter discontent over the lack of desirable candidates and deep polarization between the PPP and the DP. The turbulent 2024 election cycle started off with an assassination attempt against former presidential candidate and DP leader Lee Jae-myung, followed by an assault on PPP lawmaker Bae Hyun-jin. Fortunately, both politicians made speedy recoveries, but the attacks left many concerned about how divisive and violent politics in South Korea had become. What also distinguished this election cycle from others was the number of smaller factions and minority parties that emerged in the run-up to the vote. Unhappiness within the two largest political parties led aspiring leaders to break away and form new parties, such as the Rebuilding Korea Party and the New Reform Party. Additionally, these elections saw record numbers of absentee ballots from abroad, reaching 62.8% of eligible voters. Early voting reached its highest level at over 30%, while 67% of South Koreans voted in person.

Heading into the elections, both sides faced mounting voter frustration over growing domestic socioeconomic problems, such as rising consumer prices, low youth employment, increasing housing costs, a shrinking population, and a weak social safety net. Even common grocery items such as spring onions became politicized following President Yoon’s visit to a grocery store, where he touted the low price of the vegetable. It was later revealed, however, that the price had been artificially reduced, leading some to view Yoon’s administration and party as out of touch with the reality of inflation. Spring onions ultimately became such a charged political symbol that the National Election Commission, citing concerns about election interference, instituted a ban preventing people from carrying them outside polling stations. 

For weeks leading up to the April 10 elections, President Yoon had struggled with low approval ratings, hovering around 30%. After more than 90% of the nation’s doctors went on strike in February, hospitals across country were left struggling to provide emergency medical attention to those in need. The government’s plan to increase the number of new medical student admissions by 2,000 a year has been met with mixed support. Some Koreans are in favor of the Yoon government’s plan to increase the number of medical professionals, as South Korea has only 2.6 practicing doctors per 1,000 people, well below the OECD average of 3.7. Others, however, including those who are striking, believe that Yoon’s plan does not go far enough in addressing systemic issues like long hours and low pay for residents and interns, and overwhelmed emergency rooms. As a result of the continuing strike, health officials have announced that some elective surgeries and treatments have been either canceled or postponed. Yoon saw a brief increase in support following the government’s announcement that it would suspend the licenses of striking doctors, but after weeks of prolonged disruption, his approval ratings began to drop once more.

Since Yoon’s elections in March 2022 by a margin of only 0.85%, his rivals have attempted to push forth numerous bills that have been met with vetoes. Yoon has rejected nine bills thus far, including a special bill aimed at investigating the 2022 Itaewon tragedy, the Yellow Envelope Act, and the launch of a special counsel investigation into First Lady’s Kim Keon-hee's stock price manipulation, known as the “Kim Keon-hee Prevention Action”. In response to concerns that the first lady’s actions could be taking attention away from the president’s agenda, making it more difficult for him to lead, she remained out of the public eye in the months leading up to the April 10 elections.

Looking Ahead

The Yoon government is expected to face difficulties legislating, as the Rebuilding Korea Party and the DP will likely work together to block initiatives in the National Assembly. Having secured a majority in the legislature, the progressive parties now face pressure to propose effective solutions to many domestic issues. In 2022, South Korea’s total fertility rate fell to 0.87 – far below the OECD’s replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, and the lowest rate among OECD countries. Earlier this year, both the PPP and the DP released plans to tackle the country’s declining birth rate. The PPP proposed a bill to require employers to provide leave for both mothers and fathers. The DP, however, asserted that while $380 trillion won (US$282.8 billion) had already gone toward boosting birth rates, little success has been achieved. Its plan instead focused on the making the public housing system more accessible and loosening loan regulations for parents. It would allow parents with two or more children to become eligible for public housing at below-market rents and give them priority in purchasing apartments after paying rent for a period of time. 

The remainder of President Yoon’s term will see a continued emphasis on foreign policy, which is less dependent on legislative support. Having brought attention to South Korea’s role as a “global pivotal state,” Yoon is expected to continue strengthening ties and advocating for the advancement of freedom, peace, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond while maintaining a tough stance on North Korea and even Russia. While tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high, Yoon has warned that he “will not stand idly by” if North Korea receives Russian help to boost its weapons of mass destruction. In this year’s New Year’s address, Yoon also spoke of his plan to bolster the country’s defense posture in cooperation with the United States against Pyongyang’s growing threat in the first half of this year.

As part of safeguarding against the threat of North Korea, continued cooperation with the United States and Japan on security will remain a top priority in strengthening bilateral and trilateral relations. Rapprochement with Japan is considered to be an achievement of Yoon’s administration, and though it is controversial in Korea, he appears determined to continue improving relations and shore up public support for continued engagement and stronger people-to-people ties.

A key relationship to watch will be that of South Korea and China. Yoon has been firm — for example, telling Premier Li Qiang in 2023 to fulfill China’s responsibility and role as a permanent member of the UN Security Council in addressing the North Korean nuclear threat – and he has been forthright about South Korea’s alignment with other democracies and like-minded partners. His commitment can be seen firsthand in the “Spirit of Camp David” joint statement issued by the leaders of Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Additionally, in 2023, South Korea recorded its first trade deficit with China ($18 billion) and its largest trade surplus with the United States ($45 billion). Yoon’s China policy has differed from that of his predecessor, but he may choose to improve relations with Beijing if a candidate with less favorable views toward the U.S.-South Korean alliance were to occupy the White House.

While President Yoon will once again have to govern with the opposition in control of the National Assembly, he can be expected to remain steadfast in his commitment to coordinating with like-minded partners and strengthening security cooperation with countries like the United States and Japan, while maintaining a tough stance against North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Although the PPP might not have come out ahead in these elections as it had hoped, there is still an opportunity for impactful policymaking on pressing domestic issues if the two sides can effectively cooperate. These elections do not have to determine the final success or failure of the Yoon administration. Rather, the pivotal question is what South Korea can accomplish over the next three years in domestic and international affairs despite its divided political environment.