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THIS WEEK:

Xi’s National Day message, Beijing doubles down on pro-growth agenda, China conducts rare missile test, Wang Yi addresses the United Nations, and 2024 China International Confucius Cultural Festival.

1. Xi’s National Day Message

What Happened: Xi Jinping addressed a reception in Beijing on September 30 to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. 

Two Feats: Xi stated that, over the past 75 years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has achieved two remarkable feats: rapid economic development and long-term social stability, signifying the “irreversible” historical process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Continuing from this, he urged the country to maintain faith in CCP leadership and the socialist system.

Unpredictable Future: While Xi emphasized that reunification with Taiwan is inevitable, he also warned about the “unpredictability” of the future and urged China to be mindful of potential dangers, prepared to deal with worst-case scenarios, and ready to withstand “high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms.” 

Why It Matters: Xi’s speech largely echoed his comments during the 100th anniversary of the CCP’s founding in 2021 and those made at the start of his third term at the 20th Party Congress in 2022. This consistency once again indicates his confidence in China’s domestic trajectory as well as his concerns about its challenging strategic environment.

By Lobsang Tsering, Senior Research Associate, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Stay tuned for the upcoming release of the newest wheel on CCA’s Decoding Chinese Politics interactive website: “Party Center.”

2. Beijing Doubles Down on Pro-Growth Agenda

What Happened: Following the September Politburo meeting, China’s National Development and Reform Commission pledged support to private entrepreneurs during a roundtable and major banks announced interest rate cuts on housing loans.

Next Steps: China appears set to issue approximately 2 trillion yuan ($284 billion) in special treasury bonds. The fiscal deficit ratio will likely rise, creating more fiscal flexibility. The government will also introduce consumption-boosting measures, including subsidies for appliances and expanded trade-in programs. Housing support will continue, including loans for unfinished projects and reduced down payments.

Market Rally: China’s recent policies have triggered a stock market rally, with the CSI 300 Index hitting its best performance in years. Investor optimism has spread to global markets like the Hang Seng Index. However, the key question is whether this rally is sustainable or just another bubble, as previous surges have fizzled out when deeper structural issues were left unresolved.

Why It Matters: Years of regulatory crackdowns, a battered property market, and rising debt have eroded confidence, leaving many feeling trapped in the “garbage time of history” — a period of stagnation with little optimism for real change. In this make-or-break moment, Beijing’s latest fiscal measures must go beyond quick fixes and rebuild consumer trust, jumpstart private investment, and stabilize key sectors.

By Lizzi C. Lee, Fellow on Chinese Economy, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: For more on China’s economy, read Decoding China’s Economic Slowdown, a joint report by CCA and the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions.

3. China Conducts Rare Missile Test

What Happened: On September 25, China test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that traveled over 7,500 miles and landed in waters near French Polynesia. 

What China Said: China’s Ministry of National Defense issued a brief statement on the launch, saying the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force “launched an ICBM carrying a dummy warhead to the high seas in the Pacific Ocean” that “fell into expected sea areas.” The statement added that the test launch was “routine,” part of China’s annual training plan, and followed all international laws and practices. The missile, according to the statement, was not directed toward any country or target.

Regional Concerns: The launch unsettled Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan, with Tokyo issuing warnings over hazardous debris. Taiwan condemned the launch, saying it stood against “actions that disrupt peace and stability.” The launch radius was also sufficient to range the continental United States.

Why It Matters: While China called the test “routine,” the last time it fired an ICBM into international waters was 44 years ago, in 1980. The missile’s launch and its accompanying public announcement can be interpreted as China sending strong signals to rivals of its military capabilities.

By Lyle J. Morris, Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Lyle and Rakesh Sood examined Chinese writings and analyses regarding past crises between nuclear states to determine what lessons Beijing drew from them.

4. 2024 China International Confucius Cultural Festival

What Happened: On September 27, the opening ceremony of the 2024 China International Confucius Cultural Festival was held in Qufu, Shandong, the birthplace of the Chinese philosopher.

Mutual Learning: Li Shulei, Politburo member and head of the Publicity Department of the CCP Central Committee, opened the festival, which will run through October 7. Co-organized and launched by the Shandong provincial government, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, and the Chinese National Commission for UNESCO, this year’s theme is “Dialogue with Confucius: Mutual Learning Among Civilizations” — apropos, as it is generally accepted that Confucius was the first in China to establish a private school that enrolled students from different social classes.

Literacy Prize: Recipients of the 19th UNESCO Confucius Prize for Literacy, which recognizes efforts to increase literacy, were announced as part of the festivities. This year’s prize went to three organizations: Nigeria’s FastTrack program, Egypt’s Illiteracy Eradication Project, and Indonesia’s Sokola Literacy Education for Indigenous Indonesians program.

Why It Matters: Not all international diplomacy is economic or militaristic in nature, and the festival foregrounds the importance and potency of China’s soft power. The China International Confucius Cultural Festival is especially effectual as part of the Global Civilization Initiative, announced by Xi Jinping in March 2023, which advocates “respect for the diversity of civilizations, the common values of humanity, the importance of inheritance and innovation of civilizations, and robust international people-to-people exchanges and cooperation.”

By Ian Lane Smith, Research Associate, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Check out some of Beijing’s other soft-power efforts in ChinaFile’s Is China’s Cultural Outreach to Muslims in Indonesia Working?

5. Wang Yi Addresses the United Nations

What Happened: Last week, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi gave a speech at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79) in New York.

Wang’s Remarks: In his address, Wang emphasized the “changing and turbulent world.” Amid ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions, he referenced the need to uphold multilateralism, sovereignty, mutual respect, fairness, justice, peace, and win-win cooperation. Wang reinforced how China’s modernization has contributed to “peace and stability, common development for all, improvements to global governance, and advancement of human civilization.”

Climate Acknowledged: On climate, Wang said, “China is firmly committed to a path of green, low-carbon, and sustainable development.” He upheld China’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and acknowledged common but differentiated responsibility, urging developed countries to assist developing countries with capacity building and warning against the suppression of green industries.

Why It Matters: UNGA79 convened high-level representatives from numerous member states and served as a platform for the dissemination of key and significant messages. Although UNGA79 coincided with Climate Week, climate action did not emerge as a primary focus in the discussions. This highlights the increasing challenges imposed on the global climate agenda in a world distracted by geopolitical turbulence.

By Taylah Bland, Fellow on Climate and the Environment, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Watch “Climate Change and Global Governance: A Conversation with Ban Ki-moon on the UN Sustainable Development Goals,” moderated by Asia Society president and CEO Dr. Kyung-wha Kang.