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THIS WEEK:

China prepares for the “Trump effect” ahead of COP29, Myanmar leader visits Kunming, population decline snowballs as fewer marry, Trump’s win reshapes stimulus calculus, and Xi’s import expo opens in Shanghai

1. China Prepares for the "Trump Effect" Ahead of COP29

What Happened: At a press conference just days before the U.S. presidential election, Xia Yingxian, head of China’s climate negotiation team, urged the United States to implement the Paris Agreement and maintain stability and consistency in its climate policies.

Trump Effect: Donald Trump’s win will seriously damage global climate momentum and cast a shadow over COP29 in Azerbaijan on November 11. The incoming Trump administration is expected to walk back U.S. climate commitments and shelve bilateral climate talks with Beijing.

Where Is the Money: Climate finance will top the COP 29 agenda. Washington wants Beijing to shoulder the bill and will drive a hard bargain, but Biden’s lame duck administration now lacks credibility. Beijing will claim that Washington always overpromises and underdelivers.

Why It Matters: The U.S.-China climate relationship is nearing a breaking point. The Biden administration has managed to keep communication channels open but finds joint progress increasingly difficult. Trump’s win will require a wide range of stakeholders in both the United States and China to step up and continue the bilateral dialogue.
 
By Li Shuo, Director, China Climate Hub, and Senior Fellow, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: ASPI’s U.S.-China Climate Cooperation Timeline highlights milestones in bilateral climate relations and provides insights into efforts to shape global climate action.

2. Myanmar Military Leader in China

What Happened: Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, arrived in China for his first visit since he overthrew the Aung San Suu Kyi government in February 2021.

The Itinerary: On Tuesday, Min arrived in Kunming, Yunnan Province — which shares a long border with Myanmar — to attend a regional summit of countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion. He is expected to meet Premier Li Qiang. 

What China Said: A Chinese spokesperson said that “Myanmar is an important country in the region and has actively participated in regional cooperation mechanisms.” The spokesperson added that inviting Myanmar’s leader to the summit is “usual practice.”

Why It Matters: The invitation to visit China suggests that Beijing sees Min as an essential part of any solution to the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. 

By Lyle J. Morris, Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: ASPI Schwarzman Fellow Meghan Murphy and Press and Program Officer Bryanna Entwistle discuss regional summit diplomacy in 9DashLine.

3. Population Decline Snowballs as Fewer Marry

What Happened: China reported a drop in the number of marriages during the first nine months of 2024. Only 4.75 million couples tied the knot, 16% lower than the same period in 2023.

Another Sign of Decline: The latest figures are further evidence of China’s accelerating demographic crisis. The number of marriages has been falling for a decade, and last year’s birth rate was the lowest since 1959.

Matchmaking Party: China’s leaders are increasingly desperate. The State Council announced plans to “construct a fertility-friendly society,” and many local governments have also rolled out measures to promote marriage and childbirth. 

Why It Matters: Like other countries across East Asia, China is struggling to address the complex socioeconomic factors influencing the decision to raise a family. Depopulation — which now appears inevitable and irreversible — will have major implications for the future of China’s development, diplomacy, and defense.
 
By G.A. Donovan, Fellow on Chinese Society and Political Economy, Center for China Analysis
 
Learn More: Read Barclay Bram on “The Last Generation: Why China’s Youth Are Deciding Against Having Children.”

4. Trump's Win Reshapes Stimulus Calculus

What Happened: The National People’s Congress Standing Committee proposed increasing local government debt quotas to support fiscal stimulus in the days before Donald Trump’s election triumph.

Trump's Win: While China’s fiscal policy is domestically focused, Trump’s return, with the likelihood of renewed trade tensions, could push Beijing toward a stronger stimulus. China’s fiscal plan was likely drafted in advance of the election, with only formal approval pending, so substantial changes are unlikely. 

Mixed Outlook: In the short term, a strong U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields are pressuring the Renminbi, and Beijing’s stimulus could provide support. Longer-term impacts hinge on Trump’s approach to tariffs — he may pursue targeted trade negotiations and focus tariffs on specific sectors.

Why It Matters: China’s fiscal restraint reflects its wariness of overleveraging while trying to stabilize its economy, while the mixed outlook for Chinese assets reflects the complexity and uncertainty of current market conditions. Despite China’s emphasis on self-reliance, its economic resilience is still deeply dependent on external factors.

By Lizzi C. Lee, Fellow on Chinese Economy, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Read the article Lizzi co-authored with CCA Fellow Neil Thomas on what the U.S. election will mean for U.S.-China relations

5. Xi Import Expo Opens in Shanghai

What Happened: The Seventh China International Import Expo is taking place in Shanghai from November 5 to 10.

Global Confidence Shows: The expo features more than 3,496 exhibitors from 129 countries, primarily from the Global South. A record 297 companies from the Fortune Global 500 are participating, and around 400 new products will be unveiled during the event.

Xi's "Personal" Project: Xi Jinping established the annual expo in 2017 to help open the Chinese market to the world. The initiative is considered one of his flagship projects and is labeled as “personally planned, announced, and worked on by President Xi.”

Why It Matters: The number of participating countries is an indication of global confidence in the Chinese economy, while the success or failure of Xi’s personal projects — whether they pertain to the economy, politics, or national security — can serve as a measure of his overall governance.

By Lobsang Tsering, Senior Research Associate, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Check out the recent updates to Decoding Chinese Politics, including one that visualizes Xi’s status in the “Party Center.”