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THIS WEEK:

Xi shows his determination to clean up the Party, an envoy pushes for mediation on Ukraine, and warnings sound on industrial overcapacity, environmental threats, and population decline.

1. Xi Calls Out Cadres’ Behavior

What Happened: On March 15, Seeking Truth, the journal of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, published an excerpt of a previously unreleased speech delivered by Xi Jinping in January 2023.

In The Fortress: Speaking at the Second Plenum of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the Party’s internal watchdog and anti-corruption agency, Xi focused on “resolving the unique difficulties of a large Party” and “conducting the Party’s great self-revolution to the end.” Xi sees these efforts as essential to regime security: “fortresses are most easily breached from within. The only ones who can defeat us are ourselves.”

Shape Up, Comrades: The excerpt revealed new details about Xi’s concerns with the conduct of cadres and party members, singling out “inertia of thought and apathy of action.” 

• “As our Party has become larger, some people are liable to form small mountain tops, small circles, and small gangs, and problems of people acting however they see fit and leaders being made ineffective by their subordinates are likely to arise,” Xi said.

Why It Matters: The speech’s publication signals Xi’s determination to push ahead with efforts to fight corruption, strengthen political discipline, and enforce ideological conformity. More purges of senior officials and crackdowns on specific industries may deliver further shocks to business confidence.

By: Neil Thomas, Fellow on Chinese Politics, Center for China Analysis

Read More: Stay up to date with the people, institutions, and networks that matter in Chinese policymaking with the Decoding Chinese Politics project.

2. Beijing Envoy Seeks Greater Diplomatic Role on Ukraine

What Happened: Li Hui, China’s Special Representative on Eurasian Affairs, made his second trip to Europe in a bid to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. 

The Details: Li visited Moscow, where he met Russia’s deputy foreign minister Mikhail Galuzin, then Brussels, Warsaw, Kyiv, Berlin, and Paris, before returning to Moscow. His meetings aimed to showcase China’s diplomatic influence, albeit with a heavy emphasis on promoting Russia’s narrative and terms for a possible peace deal.

Europe’s Reaction: China’s push for mediation in the Ukraine crisis received a lukewarm response from European countries. Officials from Poland, Germany, and France emphasized the existential nature of the conflict for the EU, their commitment to assisting Ukraine’s right of self-defense, and the negative impact of China’s support for Russia on China-EU relations.

Why It Matters: The European reaction will not deter Beijing from continuing to demonstrate its intent to play a more active role in resolving the conflict, while shoring up its close partnership with Russia. 

By Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Check out "Brothers Forever: Unpacking the Conundrum of China-Russia Relations" a special initiative examining the deepening connection between Beijing and Moscow.

3. Central Bank Advisor Sounds Alarm on Overcapacity

What Happened: Huang Yiping, Peking University economist and a member of the People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee, criticized China's industrial strategy and called for measures to address overcapacity. 

A Global Concern: Substantial policy support and subsidies for advanced manufacturing have fueled overcapacity in infrastructure, renewable energy, and electric vehicles, sparking trade frictions with major economies which responded to perceived unfair market practices with tariffs and investigations.

Call to Boost Consumption: Huang proposed income distribution measures to help absorb excess production and also called for clear exit strategies for government support as well as tailored policies to align production with actual demand in industries prone to overcapacity. 

Why It Matters: Huang's public critique underscores the urgency for China to reform its industrial policy and steer the economy toward more balanced and sustainable growth. Addressing overcapacity will be crucial for domestic stability and to alleviate trade tensions.

By Lizzie C. Lee, Affiliated Researcher on Chinese Economy, Center for China Analysis

Learn More:  Lizzie wrote about Xi Jinping’s latest remarks on Technology Policy in What Happened at China's Two Sessions in 2024?

4. “iEcology” Fights Invasive Species

What Happened: Chinese ecologists coined the term “iEcology” to describe their integrated approach to the study of ecological processes, which includes using Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, to track invasive species.

The Details: Professor Liu Xuan and his team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ zoology institute analyze Douyin videos and use AI to identify trends in invasive species populations, many of which are animals released as part of traditional Buddhist practices to yield fortune and merit.

Captured on the Web: Liu’s team analyzed over 30,000 Douyin videos and found that in 62% of cases, the places where American bullfrogs and red-eared slider turtles were being released could support permanent populations, with potentially disastrous effects on local ecosystems and biodiversity.

Why It Matters: Harnessing the power of social media and AI to identify invasive species is an imaginative way to improve conservation efforts and may also help the public understand the need to prevent harm to the environment.

By: Taylah Bland, Affiliated Fellow on Climate and the Environment, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Read about China’s formidable environmental challenges in ASPI Climate Action Brief: China by the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Betty Wang and Meera Gopal.

5. More Marry Amid Growing Demographic Concerns

What Happened: The Ministry of Civil Affairs announced that the number of marriages registered in China rose more than 12% last year, reversing a decade-long decline.

The Data: Over 7,680,000 couples tied the knot in 2023. The number of marriages fell steadily from a high of nearly 13,500,000 in 2013 to only 6,800,000 in 2022, with the steepest drop — more than 12% — in 2020, the year of the COVID outbreak. 

From Dividend to Crisis: With only around 9 million babies born in China in 2023, the lowest figure since modern records began, Beijing is increasingly concerned about population decline. Government propaganda now urges families to have three children, a sharp turnaround from the notorious one-child policy which was only scrapped in 2016.

Why It Matters: The spiraling demographic crisis has serious implications for China’s future, but more weddings will make little difference as fertility rates remain low due to economic pressures and changing social norms. 

By: G.A. Donovan, Fellow for Chinese Political Economy and Society, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: See The Last Generation: Why China’s Youth Are Deciding Against Having Children by Center for China Analysis Fellow on Chinese Society Barclay Bram