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THIS WEEK:

1. Xi Declares “Inevitability” of Reunification with Taiwan in New Year’s Address

What Happened: Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his annual New Year's Eve address, reiterated his promise that Taiwan would “surely be reunified” with Mainland China.

• Xi used the annual address to signal Beijing’s preferences on cross-Strait policy, declaring that: “China will surely be reunified, and all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

Between the Lines: The message comes just ahead of Taiwan's critical presidential elections on January 13 that will determine the island's cross-Strait policy for the next four years.

Why it Matters: While Xi’s language about the inevitability of Taiwan’s “reunification” with China did not feature any new concepts or particularly threatening rhetoric, it offered a stark reminder to Taiwan’s presidential candidates and electorate about the broader challenges Taiwan faces as it prepares to elect a new leader.

By: Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security, Center for China Analysis 

Learn More: Check out Taiwan’s Past and Future: Complexity and Contestation, the Center for China Analysis’ new initiative on Taiwan, including detailed ongoing analysis of the upcoming election.

2. Xi Signals More Assertive Foreign Policy

What Happened: Xi Jinping chaired China’s Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference (CFAWC) last week. 

The Context: The CFAWC is a big deal. Held only once every five years or so, the meeting helps set the whole direction of Chinese foreign policy. Xi’s 2014 CFAWC kicked off a much more assertive policy, including what came to be known as “wolf warrior” diplomacy. 

• The last CFAWC, in 2018, solidified a hardening of U.S.-China relations and began a concerted bid by Beijing for more global influence, including in international institutions.

What Xi Said: The gathering declared that China will push harder for a more “equal and orderly multipolar world,” standing together with developing countries to oppose “hegemony, unilateralism, and protectionism” and “vigorously defend our national interests and dignity.”

• At a subsequent meeting with China’s diplomatic corps, Xi said that, “external forces have continuously escalated their suppression and containment against us,” and congratulated diplomats for having “stood firm in foreign lands.”

Why it Matters: It appears that China’s assertive “wolf warrior” diplomacy may only further ramp up in the coming years as China’s diplomats follow Xi’s signals to not give an inch abroad. 

By: Nathan Levine, Assistant Director, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: For background, read Center for China Analysis Founding Chair Kevin Rudd’s 2018 speech to the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, “Xi Jinping, China and the Global Order – The Significance of China's 2018 Central Foreign Policy Work Conference.”

3. Dong Jun Named China’s New Defense Minister

What Happened: Beijing appointed Dong Jun as defense minister on December 29, filling the vacancy left by the sudden removal in October of Li Shangfu, who is reportedly under investigation for corruption.

The Context: Dong is a career naval officer who served as Commander of the PLA Navy since August 2021. He was previously a deputy commander of the East Sea Fleet, deputy chief of staff of the PLA Navy, and a deputy commander of the Southern Theater Command.

Between the Lines: Dong is the first navy leader to serve as defense minister, one of several firsts for the PLA Navy under Xi’s tenure, in a sign of Beijing's rising focus on maritime power.

• Dong also has command experience of naval forces in hotspot areas such as the South China Sea and East China Sea, a possible signal of rising efforts by Beijing to assert its territorial claims in these regions.

Why it Matters: China’s defense minister is the country’s top military diplomat and in the shorter-term Dong’s promotion opens the door to resuming high-level military dialogue with the United States — especially given that Dong, unlike his predecessor, is not under any U.S. sanctions.

By: Neil Thomas, Fellow on Chinese Politics, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Read The New Domestic Politics of U.S.-China Relations, by Center for China Analysis Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy Evan Medeiros.

4. China Aims for Stellar Success in Space Weather Monitoring

What Happened: The Chinese Meridian Project (CMP), now the largest network of ground-based space weather observatories in the world, was successfully completed by China at the end of December. 

• The CMP took eight years to build and cost $212 million.

The Details: The network of close to 300 instruments stretched across China is designed to help make more accurate predictions of solar activity, including geomagnetic storms that are capable of knocking out satellites and widely destroying electronics and power systems on Earth.

Between the Lines: The project’s director, Wang Chi, noted that it would “safeguard China’s major space infrastructure for national strategic needs,” reflecting the reality that countries like China today rely heavily on space-based assets for military and national security purposes. Space weather presents a major vulnerability for these systems.
 
Why it Matters: Completing the CMP may push China’s scientists to the forefront of global research in the field of space weather and lead international scientists to rely on the project’s capabilities and data. It may also give the country security advantages. It is therefore likely to be another item that attracts global attention to China’s growing scientific and technological capabilities.

By: Taylah Bland, Affiliated Fellow on Climate and the Environment, Center for China Analysis
 
Learn More: Read With China on the Moon, a ChinaFile Conversation about China’s ambitions in space.

5. Beijing Blinks on Video Games

What Happened: Feng Shixin, the head of the publication bureau of China’s Propaganda Department, was dismissed last week. His firing was notable for its cause: his bureau’s announcement of proposed rules further tightening China’s already strict limits on the time young people are allowed to play video games. 

• News of the proposed restrictions wiped tens of billions of dollars off the market values of China’s huge but already struggling gaming companies.

Behind the Scenes: Authorities reversed course after the market crash and indicated they may walk back the new rules, while Feng became the fall guy.

• He was “dismissed over the department’s handling of the release of the draft rules at a time of weak market sentiment” according to sources quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

The Bigger Picture: With weak growth and financial liabilities plaguing China’s economy, Beijing is keen to try to reassure private sector investors and entrepreneurs, and boost consumer spending. While the proposed gaming restrictions were fully in line with the spirit of Xi’s culture-related crackdowns circa 2020, economic realities meant they now landed behind the curve of the evolving party line.

Why It Matters: The incident may help indicate that Beijing is growing increasingly willing to further loosen up regulatory policies for the sake of stimulating economic recovery.

By: Nathan Levine, Assistant Director, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Check out Xi Signals More Growth but Same Strategy at China’s Central Economic Work Conference for the latest on Beijing’s economic policy approach, by Center for China Analysis Fellow on Chinese Politics Neil Thomas.