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THIS WEEK:

1. China’s Red Sea Dilemma

What Happened: China issued a subdued statement last week calling on “all relevant parties” to “ensure the safety of navigation in the Red Sea” amid proliferating attacks on shipping by Yemen-based Houthi rebels.

• China’s Ministry of Commerce added that, “The Red Sea is an important international trade route,” and that China would “strengthen co-ordination with relevant departments, closely follow the developments and provide timely support and assistance to foreign trade enterprises.”

The Bigger Picture: China is facing a serious challenge as the situation in the region escalates. China is more reliant than any other country on uninterrupted trade through the Suez Canal, for both imports and exports, and the ongoing disruptions are inflicting heavy losses on China’s economy as the price of freight has skyrocketed.

• China’s largest shipping company, Cosco, has been forced to reroute cargo away from the region, and the average price of shipping a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Italy has risen 123% compared to January 2023.

Between the Lines: China has found itself trapped by its web of close relationships with different feuding partners in the Middle East. The Houthis are backed by Iran, which China supports geopolitically – meaning Beijing’s ability to openly criticize the disruptions of its own trade are limited.

• Meanwhile U.S. officials have “repeatedly raised the matter with top Chinese officials in the past three months, asking them to convey a warning to Iran not to inflame tensions” further, according to reporting by the Financial Times.
• U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will reportedly fly to Thailand this week to meet with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on the issue.

Why it Matters: The situation highlights how, as the world’s largest trading nation, China still remains reliant on security provided by U.S. and international maritime power — a fact that has long troubled leaders in Beijing. It may only further stimulate their prioritization of China’s naval buildout.

By: Nathan Levine, Research Fellow, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Check out the Asia Society Policy Institute’s interactive map of China’s Evolving Ties With the Middle East.

2. In Wake of Taiwan’s Elections, China Opens New Diplomatic Front

What Happened: The Pacific island nation of Nauru switched its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China on January 15, indicating that Beijing may be opening a new pressure campaign against Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies. 

What’s Next: There are rumors that the island nation of Tuvalu may also follow suit. 

The Details: On Saturday, Australian media reported that Tuvalu’s ambassador to Taiwan suggested that “sources close to him” informed him that his country may soon switch diplomatic recognition to Beijing. 

Why it Matters: After a diplomatic truce during Taiwan’s Beijing-friendly Ma Ying-jeou administration that lasted from 2008 to 2016, Beijing has continued its diplomatic campaign to peel off Taiwan’s dwindling diplomatic partners. With Nauru’s move, ten countries have now switched recognition during the eight years of the Tsai Ying-wen administration, which Beijing has labeled “secessionist.”

• Given the election of Lai Ching-te from Tsai’s DPP Party, and the prospect of another four years of DPP rule in Taiwan, Beijing seems set to amplify efforts to poach Taiwan’s 12 remaining diplomatic partners in an effort to isolate Taiwan internationally.  

By: Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security, Center for China Analysis 

Learn More: Read The Geopolitical Implications of the Taiwanese Elections for China, the United States and the World, by Center for China Analysis Senior Fellow on Taiwan Simona Grano.

3. Xi Highlights United Front

What Happened: On January 15, the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship journal, Qiushi, published a 12-point article by Xi Jinping laying out strategies for united front work.

• This article is an excerpt of a speech Xi delivered at the Central Conference on United Front Work in July of 2022.

Get Smart: United front work refers to, among other things, the Party’s overseas and domestic political influence operations.

The Details: Xi said united front work had become “more important” as internal and external situations have “changed tremendously,” and urged further efforts to “promote unity” and “win hearts and minds” among political parties, ethnic groups, religions, academics, and “compatriots” “at home and abroad.”

Between the Lines: The article was released following the election of the independence-leaning candidate Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s president. Lai’s electoral success suggests that Beijing’s strategy of intimidation might have inadvertently worked against China’s interests, and the renewed emphasis on united front work now may signal the Party center believes influence efforts should be improved.

Why it Matters: The speech signifies the continued importance the Party places on the United Front as a tool for political, social, and economic integration and unity across different sectors of society, and across borders.

By: Yifan Zhang, Affiliated Researcher, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Read Holding Sway, a report by ChinaFile on the United Front Work Department.

4. China Denies Human Rights Abuses at UN Review

What Happened: On Tuesday, China’s Ambassador in Geneva, Chen Xu, led a delegation from some 20 Chinese ministries for the “universal periodic review” that is conducted every five years by the UN Human Rights Council.

Between the Lines: This review is the first to take place since the release of a 2022 UN report that cited China as having potentially committed crimes against humanity in Xinjiang. 

The Details: The hearing focused primarily on the claims of human rights abuses in Xinjiang but also covered the political situation in Hong Kong, where Beijing imposed a strict National Security Law in 2020.

• Some 160 countries registered to address the hearing, granting each a mere 45 seconds to speak. These included Canada, Denmark, Germany, and Japan, which called for better protections of minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet, and for the release of those in detention, particularly writers and journalists.
• U.S. Ambassador Michele Taylor presented a list of concerns, concluding with, “We condemn the ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and transnational repression to silence individuals abroad.”
• Some countries, including Ethiopia, Cameroon, and Iran lauded China’s human rights policies instead.

Why it Matters: China is engaged in an ongoing global battle for influence on the issue of human rights. While Western liberal countries continue to press for the universal application of human rights, China maintains that there is no one-size-fits-all model to the protection of human rights and insists on the superiority of national sovereignty.

• China will continue to campaign to align other countries in the developing world with its position, and to alter global norms on the issue.

By: Taylah Bland, Affiliated Fellow on Climate and the Environment, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Read a recent piece by ChinaFile on this topic: Beijing Is Pouring Resources into Its UN Human Rights Review — All to Prevent Any Real Review from Taking Place.

5. Xi Looks to Cultivate Tech Talent for Self-Reliance

What Happened: On January 19, Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued “important instructions,” conveyed by executive vice premier Ding Xuexiang, at a ceremony to honor those receiving China’s inaugural National Engineer Awards.

• Xi said China should “further increase our ability to independently cultivate engineering and technical talents” and “continuously increase the social status of engineers” to “accelerate the construction of a large-scale team of outstanding engineers” in China.

Between the Lines: The CCP hopes to use prizes like the National Engineer Awards to incentivize highly skilled workers to stay in China and stimulate homegrown innovation to reduce dependence on Western technology.

• Xi said engineers are “an important part of the country's strategic talent force” and should “accelerate the realization of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance.”

Why it Matters: New initiatives like these awards suggest Beijing remains focused squarely on long-term strategic competition with the United States despite the recent stabilization in bilateral ties.

• These prizes also send signals about what technologies the Party deems as priorities for companies, universities, and other R&D institutions in China.
• Awardees invited to speak at the ceremony were mainly engineers at state-owned enterprises. While recipients included teams focused on cutting-edge technologies like chips and supercomputing, a dearth of private sector honorees suggests Beijing may be hampering its own ambitions by not doing more to support private sector innovation.

By: Neil Thomas, Fellow on Chinese Politics, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Read about China’s Industrial policy and the reality of its successes and failures, in a joint report by the Center for China Analysis and the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions.