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THIS WEEK:

China’s playbook for Trade War 2.0, Beijing denies capitalizing on U.S. aid withdrawal, China and Pakistan conduct naval exercises, Xi on being bold within boundaries, and landslide strikes village near Sichuan-Yunnan border

1. China’s Playbook for Trade War 2.0

What Happened: President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, effective March 12, targeting China’s steel overproduction, which accounts for more than half of the world’s supply. In response to previous tariffs, Beijing has imposed levies on U.S. coal, liquefied natural gas, crude oil, agricultural machinery, and vehicles. Additionally, it has launched antitrust investigations into U.S. tech firms and placed companies on its unreliable entity list.

Why It Matters: China’s reliance on exports makes the tariffs a serious threat to its economy. To counter them, Beijing has signaled a willingness to negotiate while simultaneously strengthening trade relationships with countries in the Global South to reduce its dependence on the United States.
 
By Lizzi C. Lee, Fellow on Chinese Economy, Center for China Analysis (@wstv_lizzi)

China’s expanding trade with Indonesia highlights a strategic focus on deepening economic ties alongside heavy investment in infrastructure, such as the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail and the Morowali Industrial Park. Chinese exports to Indonesia grew an impressive 59% from 2020 to 2023, reaching $65 billion. – Kevin Zongzhe Li, Affiliated Researcher, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: The South China Morning Post interviewed CCA Co-Founder and Managing Director Jing Qian on China’s economy in the age of Trump.

2. Beijing Denies Capitalizing on U.S. Aid Withdrawal

What Happened: Chinese state media rebutted claims that Beijing will fill gaps in funding for humanitarian aid, health, and education left by the U.S. withdrawal of foreign aid. The Global Times quoted a top government researcher saying that “China rarely uses aid as leverage to influence the political stance of other countries” and “a significant portion of China’s foreign assistance is based on cooperation.”

Why It Matters: China has provided foreign aid to developing countries for decades, but it lacks the capacity to quickly scale up aid for grassroots public health and other basic development assistance. Politically, Beijing’s denial is a way to prevent further friction with the new administration in Washington.

By G.A. Donovan, Fellow on Society and Political Economy, Center for China Analysis (@GA_DonovanASPI)

Learn More: CCA Senior Fellow Lyle Morris explained how China will focus its rhetoric on areas of potential cooperation with Washington in his contribution to China 2025: What to Watch.

3. China and Pakistan Conduct Naval Exercises

What Happened: From February 7 to 11, China’s navy participated in the Multinational Maritime Exercise AMAN-2025 hosted by the Pakistani Navy off the coast of Karachi. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Malaysia, Japan, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Iran, Bangladesh, and Oman also sent ships. The exercise included consultations, roundtable discussions, cross-deck visits, and drills on replenishment-at-sea, joint anti-piracy operations, search and rescue, and air defense.

Why It Matters: Pakistan has become one of China’s closest military partners, and the two regularly host joint air, army, and naval exercises. AMAN-2025 further enhances their military cooperation and strengthens operational training for maritime security.
 
By Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security, Center for China Analysis (@LyleJMorris)
 
Learn More: Lyle wrote about China’s crisis management strategy and how its leaders may be overconfident in their ability to prevail in a conflict.

4. Xi on Being Bold Within Boundaries

What Happened: On February 8, during an inspection tour of Jilin Province, Xi Jinping emphasized that high-quality development should be guided by “high-quality Party building.” He urged local officials to boldly carry out their responsibilities while adhering to regulations and maintaining integrity.

Why It Matters: Unlike his predecessors, Xi prioritizes political will and places a heavy emphasis on rules and discipline as means of political control. Rather than victory at any cost, he makes calculated decisions to achieve his goals within existing political boundaries. Understanding the “Xi Playbook” is crucial for effectively engaging with him.

By Lobsang Tsering, Senior Research Associate, Center for China Analysis

Learn More: Veteran China watchers joined CCA Senior Fellow Lynette H. Ong to discuss the obstacles to understanding what is happening in China during the new age of uncertainty.

5. Landslide Strikes Village Near Sichuan-Yunnan Border

What Happened: On Saturday, a landslide struck a village named Jinping in Yibin, Sichuan Province, leaving at least one person dead and twenty-eight missing. In response, President Xi Jinping called for an all-out rescue operation — 848 personnel were deployed to assist, and $6.9 million has been allocated to repair infrastructure and public services.

Why It Matters: Southwest China’s mountainous regions are prone to landslides, making disaster preparedness essential. Premier Li Qiang’s request to investigate geological hazards in nearby areas and evacuate those under threat highlights China’s proactive commitment to protecting against natural disasters and mitigating their impact.

By Taylah Bland, Fellow on Climate and the Environment, Center for China Analysis (@Taylahbland)

Learn More: Read about the provincial leaders on the front lines of China’s natural disaster response in Decoding Chinese Politics, the Center for China Analysis’s interactive resource for making sense of the inner workings of China’s political system.